This is the least popular opinion in Lithuania today.
"There is a
widespread perception that one of Lithuania's biggest national security issues
is none other than climate change. The United Nations predicts that there will
be about 10 billion people on Earth by 2050 and that we will face unprecedented
climate change catastrophes. It will not save the influx of migrants There is
no use for fence, and if there is still a way to solve the problem, there is only one
way to do it - technology, innovation and a CO2 tax, says Prof. Egidijus
Rimkus.
Egidijus Rimkus, a
climatologist at the Faculty of Chemistry and Geosciences of Vilnius
University, asked in a remote discussion “Sustainability is an integral part of
the company's DNA” organized by the Lithuanian Food Industry Association.
The latest report
on climate change was published this year, summarizing the latest data on
climate change. According to it, since 1880. until 2021 the average global
temperature increased by as much as 1.1 ° C. The last decade has probably been
the warmest in 125,000 years.
Vilnius University
climatologist prof. E. Rimkus points out that the last 5-6 years have been
extremely warm on a global scale: “Global warming really started in the 20th
century. In the late 1980s, when we felt a signal that the climate was
beginning to change. We are now shooting upwards with acceleration. ”
False information
is provided to the public
E. Rimkus
emphasizes that we can exist on this planet thanks to the greenhouse effect.
Without it, the average temperature on the ground would be -18 ° C. Thanks to
the greenhouse effect, we currently have an average temperature of 13.6 ° C.
This difference is due to the presence in the atmosphere of gases that affect
the entire climate system.
"The problem
is not that the greenhouse effect exists, but that we are strengthening it. We
have a constantly increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,
and it is one of the main greenhouse gases, ”says the climatologist.
We emit about 9
gigatonnes (9 billion tons) of carbon into the atmosphere every year, says E.
Rimkus. Part of the photosynthesis process can be absorbed by plants (about 3
gigatonnes), another about 2 gigatonnes by the ocean (which causes
acidification, coral decay and other problems), and 4 gigatonnes remain in the
atmosphere.
Over a hundred
years, the change in air temperature is projected to increase from 1.4 to 4.4 °
C. Although this wide scale is criticized for its high degree of uncertainty,
the professor says it is due to socio-economic factors: “We don’t know how big in the 21st centurywill be population, what
fuel they will use, what the energy needs will be. We do not know much about
the end of the century, just as we did in the 20th century, residents did not
imagine what the 20th century end will be like. This results in a wide range
of forecasts."
According to E.
Rimkus, it is clear that the limit of 1.5 ° C will be reached in the next 10
years. There is no doubt about it, and scientists do not even consider it, but
the misinformation that it can be stopped is sometimes made available to the
public.
We throw an
explosive in the can
The worst case
scenario is a temperature rise of 4.4 ° C. Asking if this is a lot, the
climatologist answers: “24 thousand years ago, when the last glaciation took
place, the average global temperature was 9 ° C. 19th century at the end of the
year we had a temperature 4.7 degrees warmer due to natural fluctuations. It
was a completely different planet than it was during the last glaciation. But
it has happened for over 20 thousand years. Meanwhile, temperatures have warmed
another 1.1 degrees over the past 100 years and are projected to rise by 2100.
additional warming of 0.3 to 3.3 ° C."
Professor E.
Rimkus wants to send a message on behalf of all climatologists: if a bad
scenario occurs, i.e. a total increase of 4.4 ° C means that in 200 years we
will be on the same path as we have been since the last glaciation: "It
threatens a balanced climate system, balanced ecosystems and social
systems."
According to a
professor at Vilnius University, tensions in social systems are caused by
ethnic conflicts, wealth inequality, overpopulation, food shortages, religious
intolerance, and so on. Meanwhile, humanity is creating another problem:
climate change. "It's like an explosive thrown into a gunpowder can,"
E. Rimkus compares.
Climate change is
a matter of national security
The climate is
changing because there are more people on the planet, we live better and
better, and global prosperity is largely based on oil, gas and coal, says the
climatologist: "The more we burn, the more we change the composition of
the air and the warmer the climate."
According to a VU
professor, the United Nations predicts that by 2050 there will be about 10
billion population on earth.
The population in Europe will not change, in
Lithuania it will decrease almost two times. In Africa, meanwhile, the population will grow
4 times. "I am absolutely convinced that no fence will protect us. When I
am asked why climate change is a problem for Lithuania, I answer that it is a
matter of national security. If we do not solve this problem now, there will be
no one to solve it later, ” - says E. Rimkus.
Eliminate the
cause
Forests currently
cover about 31% of the total land area, with about 0.5 ha of forest per capita.
According to E. Rimkus, tropical forests have been the main focus recently, as
they are able to absorb the most CO2, but these are the most intensive forms of
deforestation: In the last 10 thousand years humanity has cut down a third of the
world's forests. "
E. Rimkus says
that tropical forests are not cut down for timber, but primarily for livestock
farms, soybean cultivation, palm plantations, and the timber industry is the
last reason.
To address the
challenges posed by climate change, the causes need to be addressed, because
the further the consequences, the harder it will be to deal with, the professor
says.
"If we have the power to solve this problem, we can only do so
through technology and innovation and the CO2 tax," says E. Rimkus.
The professor also
notes that UK representatives often boast that their country’s GDP is growing
and CO2 emissions are falling. "It is good when we move production to
other regions of the world and we are satisfied with it," E. Rimkus
ironically. According to him, one of the fastest growing economies is currently
Vietnam, but the country's GDP and CO2 emissions are rising in parallel.
E. Rimkus points
out that in third countries, as well as in Vietnam, people also want to have a
car. When we throw away ours in Europe by replacing them with electric cars,
our old cars will not go away and will travel in containers to Africa and
Southeast Asian countries, the professor says.
Offers to choose
"green" phones
The professor
emphasizes that the fate of climate change is being decided in Valeriepier,
where half of the world's population lives. "What will happen to climate
change depends on this region," emphasizes the VU climatologist.
Despite
international efforts, Vietnam is planning for 2030 double coal energy
production. If you have a Samsung phone, there is a 30% chance that it is made
in Vietnam, says the professor. "When choosing a phone, keep in mind that
Samsung employees work 70 hours per week in Samsung's factories in Vietnam. in order to provide
products to European consumers, ” - says E. Rimkus.
For those looking
for a new phone, the VU professor presents his suggested options. E.
Rimkus recommends Librem 5 (this is the only phone made in the USA) and
Fairphone 4. The latter phone is Dutch-made and generally the only phone built
by Europeans. "Its price is now 580
euros, but the quality is like Xiomi for 180 euros. Not bad. But how many of us
are willing to pay an extra 400 euros. for making the phone “green” and
recyclable? ” - the climatologist asks.
Renewable energy
pays off
"Another
climate change issue: what will we do with certain countries, such as the
Republic of Congo? It derives almost 50% of its GDP from oil production and
exports. What will happen when Europe says that we no longer need oil and that
all oil companies stop their businesses? What will we do with Venezuela, the
Republic of the Congo?” - E. Rimkus asks the question.
The professor says
that the further away, the more oil is extracted. If production rates remain
the same, the available oil reserves would be enough for another 50 years.
“Earlier in the geography textbooks, it was written that oil would run out in
2020. Not happening. There is more, but not because more have appeared, but because
we can pick up more,” - the climatologist notes.
The news is that
the prices of renewable energy production are falling, E. Rimkus points out.
According to him, the price of energy extracted by the solar collector has
fallen about 10 times in 10 years, so renewable energy is already paying off.
But there is another problem: what will happen if the wind stops blowing, as
happened this summer? How much gas do we need?" We can't "hang" everything on the sun and wind, but
there is a feeling that there are few people in Europe who think about it," - says E. Rimkus.
Organic cigarettes
and other lies
In the discussion,
E. Rimkus raises a new problem of these times - "greenwashing". We
often admire seeing an organic product and buy without even thinking or reading
carefully what is written on the label. According to the professor, this is a
marketing action - the aim is to convince the public that the product is
organic, although there is not always evidence of this. The professor gives an
example - organic cigarettes can be seen on the shelves of some stores.
"It simply came to our notice then to smoke them for the second time, because it is a
renewable source", - laughs E. Rimkus.
It is important
not to be fooled and seeing the eco-label on the label to make sure that the
label has a real meaning. According to the professor, some labels are obtained
for the fact that the company distributing the product has supported the
environmental organization, but this has nothing to do with the environmental
friendliness of the product itself.
Also, some of the claims on the labels are
intended to convince the consumer that the product is "greener" than
it actually is. E. Rimkus points out that you should not believe when you see
the inscription on the packaging that the bottle is made of 100% ocean plastic.
"Plastic that has been in the ocean for some time could no be processed. It can
be incinerated but not recycled. The point is that rubbish plastic is being
collected from the coasts of Malaysia or Indonesia, which in principle could
end up in the sea, but has not yet reached the sea,” - says the VU professor.
"True green
products are those that are produced sustainably, without toxic or
ozone-depleting substances, can be recycled or are made from recycled or
renewable materials (such as bamboo), use no excessive packaging and are designed
to be repaired, not one-use-offs,” - explains the climatologist.
Climate change is
a just punishment for humanity
Asked how to
achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, the professor answers: “I don't think
the world is moving in that direction. First of all, the state must be clear
that this is a threat, not because they have been ordered by some international
organization. Secondly, the most important things are binational agreements,
so an agreement between the United States and China on this issue, for example,
is more important than the Paris or Glasgow agreements. The world's major
powers need to be clear about what they want to do. "
Prof. E. Rimkus
equates the efforts of mankind to stop climate change with the work of
Sisyphus. The professor recalls that Sisyphus was primarily a criminal who
killed travelers and convicted for crimes against people and gods. "He is often
spared, but he was a criminal. Therefore, I have a question - maybe climate
change is the right punishment for humanity?", - E. Rimkus invites to
consider."
Komentarų nėra:
Rašyti komentarą