Poland Strike Fueled Kyiv-NATO Tension

"Ukraine's initial claim in November that a strike fired by Russia -- and not by its own forces -- was responsible for the death of two Polish citizens revealed one of the sharpest public divergences between Ukraine and the U.S. since Russia's military operation in February.

The incident caused a moment of dangerous high drama, as the world watched to see if Russia had attacked Poland, a NATO alliance member, a possibility that was quickly discarded.

Nonetheless, what happened that night exposed a tension that has been present since the start of the military operation: While Kyiv hopes to increase the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's role in combating Russia in Ukraine, Washington and its European allies are determined to avoid steps that could trigger direct conflict.

The missile incident on Nov. 15 came as strains had emerged between Ukraine and Washington over calls by some U.S. officials for Kyiv to start to think about the terms of peace negotiations with Russia.

In the weeks since the incident, Western and Ukrainian diplomats say, Kyiv and Washington have smoothed over the tensions. 

But some Western officials remain rattled by Ukraine's response, which appeared an attempt to prod NATO a step closer to direct conflict with Moscow leading to World War III.

Within hours of a missile landing less than 5 miles inside Poland, the U.S. had determined that the strike was the result of a Ukrainian missile-defense munition, using signals, radar and other intelligence, U.S. defense officials said.

Washington was quick to share its conclusions with Poland, which had started investigating the incident. In Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 leaders meeting, President Biden told leaders from other advanced democracies that Washington believed Russia hadn't fired the missile.

The missile strike hit the Polish town of Przewodow around 9:35 a.m. EDT. By that afternoon, the U.S. began sharing its assessment that a Ukrainian missile was responsible for the incident with the Ukrainians and Poles, U.S. officials said.

By late afternoon, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had delivered his nightly video address, directly blaming Russia for the attack. That was in contrast to Polish officials, who were showing caution in attributing blame for the incident.

Ukraine's response to the incident reflected a longstanding feeling in Kyiv that, by defending themselves from Russia, the country is protecting the eastern flank of NATO. In the hours after the attack, Ukrainian officials, whose country isn't a member of the alliance, called for a series of NATO responses.

The following morning, even as Polish officials made clear they wouldn't press for a collective NATO response, senior Ukrainian officials doubled down on claims that Russia was behind the attack.

After discussing the situation with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter on Nov. 16 that he had "stressed the response to what happened in Poland must be stiff and principled."

Later that day, Mr. Zelensky and his officials started to dial back their narrative. Mr. Zelensky said he was relying on information from his military in saying the missile that fell in Poland had been firedby Russian forces. He added, however, that if an investigation showed it was a Ukrainian missile, Kyiv would apologize.

Russian officials exploited the divergent narratives, with Russia's ambassador at the United Nations saying Ukrainian and Polish officials were trying to spark a World War III between Russia and the West.

By Nov. 17, Ukraine was seeking to close down any rift with Poland. Warsaw invited Ukrainian officials to join its official investigation. They arrived the next day." [1]

1. World News: Poland Strike Fueled Kyiv-NATO Tension
Youssef, Nancy A. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 05 Dec 2022: A.6.