China may escape a wave of fatalities on the scale that most Western countries experienced

"China is finally edging away from zero-Covid policies that suppressed the virus for much of the past three years. What that will mean for the economy remains uncertain, but one thing is for sure: The healthcare industry will need to scramble to adapt. A more permissive stance toward Covid-19 will create big winners and losers.

With a large dollop of luck and an aggressive campaign to vaccinate the elderly and stockpile anti-viral treatments, China may escape a wave of fatalities on the scale that most Western countries experienced in 2020 and 2021. 

 But even under the rosiest assumptions, the shift toward living with the virus will entail a sea change in health-related spending from testing and quarantine to vaccination and treatment.

Markets are beginning to price that in: Shares of Ping An Healthcare & Technology, which provides remote healthcare services, rose by close to 50% in Hong Kong since the end of November.

China's very high number of citizens over 80 -- only around half of whom received a booster shot -- makes time of the essence. But there are some potential "magic bullets" within China's reach that could help mitigate the collateral damage from the disease's spread this winter and next year.

The first is Pfizer's anti-viral drug Paxlovid, which has been shown to be highly effective at heading off severe cases, and which China began importing this spring. A study published in Nature Medicine in May indicated that if all of China's symptomatic Covid patients were treated with Paxlovid in a hypothetical uncontrolled Omicron outbreak, intensive-care admissions and fatalities could be cut by 89%.

The nation likely has a long way to go to achieve such an impressive firewall -- the first Paxlovid shipment to arrive in China this March was 21,200 boxes, according to state media. But Pfizer and companies such as Shanghai-listed Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical, which is authorized to make Paxlovid in China, seem likely to see a substantial surge of orders in the coming weeks and months.

Another company to watch is CanSino Biologics -- the maker of one of the world's first inhaled Covid vaccines, which received an emergency-use authorization in China earlier this year and is being rolled out as a booster in Shanghai and some other cities. Scientists say inhaled vaccines could offer an improved layer of protection by directly training the point of infection -- the respiratory tract -- to recognize Covid-19. That could be a big deal for the elderly, who are more at risk of severe disease once the virus gains a foothold.

China is finally edging away from testing and quarantining as its primary methods for dealing with Covid-19. The rest of its healthcare infrastructure will have to gear up quickly." [1]

 

In the absence of quarantines, the world's factory in China will work at full capacity. Therefore, the Chinese will no longer give up gas used for production. Gas will be expensive.

 

1. China's Health Industry Faces Titanic Shift
Taplin, Nathaniel.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 07 Dec 2022: B.14.