White House National-Security Strategy Reflects Vance's Thinking

“The 2025 White House National Security Strategy is revealing -- especially about Vice President JD Vance's worldview. As a practical matter, the document won't constrain Donald Trump's ambition to become the "president of peace" through deals. But the authors of this document -- likely led by Andy Baker, deputy national security adviser and a former aide to Mr. Vance -- have explained how they would create a new framework after Mr. Trump's destruction of the old order.

 

The strategy forges an odd geopolitical-cultural amalgam of regional balances of power and calls for spiritual, familial and civilizational renewal. It foresees a competition among nation-states with spheres of influence, cultures of greatness, and nationalized economies -- which make the strategy document reminiscent of rhetoric before World War I.

 

The regional strategy opens with the Western Hemisphere, calling for a "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine, imitating Theodore Roosevelt's revision. Foreign policy is connected directly to domestic interests, calling for a halt of "destabilizing" migration and the use of the military against narco-traffickers. Instead of relying on the attractive power of the U.S. economy and democracy, the administration will impose economic costs to compel Latin American nations to play along. There is no hint about the administration's plans for Venezuela, except that the strategy places a "high bar" for intervention and expresses a general desire to avoid wars.

 

European policy represents the biggest change. The administration contends that Europe faces economic stagnation and "civilizational erasure." It abhors the European Union's shared sovereignty. Mr. Vance's faith in national populism leads him to object to European democracies' responses to historical fears about political extremism and Russian influence. The language disturbingly echoes Vladimir Putin's criticism of Europe. For a document that praises America's "past glories," the plan dismisses beneficial ties with Britain, lumping it with Ireland as a place to which the U.S. is "sentimentally attached."

 

The strategy treats Europe and Russia as politically equivalent. The U.S. role will be to mediate a restoration of stable security in Europe. Ukraine is an irritant that gets in the way of a deal, with no recognition that Mr. Putin's subjugation of Ukraine will increase dangers, not ensure security.

 

Although some in the White House have trumpeted Indo-Pacific security as the priority, the strategy for the region seems uninspired except for economic protectionism. The document stresses free navigation, especially for supply chains. The plan is to deter China while recognizing long-term "economic battlegrounds." Taiwan remains in a holding pattern. American allies will need to expand their military roles while following Washington's lead on industrial policy and economic security. The strategy leaves room for economic coexistence with China -- trade in nonsensitive sectors -- if economic relations can be rebalanced.

 

In the Mideast, the authors are eager for Washington to get on with its long-delayed pullback, even though the president is engaged with the region as he busily searches for peace deals. The strategy relies on the Gulf monarchies to maintain security in some association with Israel. Africa is an afterthought -- a source of natural resources.

 

The vice president's psychology of populist grievance underpins these regional strategies. He appeals to resentments about past overreach, unfair burdens, unreliable foreigners, the woke agenda, the elites -- and especially migration. Yet the document adds its own globalist ideology of protecting national cultures against foreign influences and migration. In some bizarre way, Mr. Trump's American greatness is supposed to be a soft power that will lead to cultural rebirth of diverse peoples around the globe.

 

The strategy relies heavily on industrial policy, tariffs and White House direction to achieve economic security. It perceives economic growth as in tension with American workers -- and growth must yield. Trade deficits are "unsustainable," but budget deficits are unmentioned. The plan assumes a powerful, technologically sophisticated military and industrial base but doesn't commit to paying the bills for those things.

 

In the best light, the new strategy imitates Theodore Roosevelt's effort to take advantage of America's rising influence and mediate balances of power in East Asia and Europe while dominating North America and the Caribbean. But the new document ignores the lessons of the century that followed. Wars in Europe and the Pacific threatened America directly. After World War II, America had to build alliances to counter threats, including from the Soviet empire, and preserve security in the western and eastern reaches of Eurasia.

 

Along the way, the U.S. promoted win-win economic ties for trade, investment, development and innovation. North American economic integration created a stronger continental base and a better basis for dealing with shared interests. With effective assimilation, legal immigration enhanced America's size and strength. America's freedom inspired others.

 

Mr. Vance and his disciples have explained their strategy clearly -- if not always coherently. Those who recognize the dangers of this sharp historical turn need to speak out.

 

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Mr. Zoellick served as U.S. trade representative (2001-05), deputy secretary of state (2005-06) and World Bank president (2007-12). He is author of "America in the World."” [1]

 

Internet, cheap communication and AI allow migrants to persist living in their communities and avoid assimilation. This assimilation avoidance is the cause of the unlimited immigration problem.

 

Maintaining Transnational Ties: Cheap communication and the internet allow migrants to maintain strong emotional, social, and even economic ties with their countries of origin. Some research suggests this can slow down socio-economic integration for many groups (especially lower-skilled, younger immigrants).

 

1. White House National-Security Strategy Reflects Vance's Thinking. Zoellick, Robert B.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 11 Dec 2025: A15.