"Most American foreign-policy experts fundamentally misunderstand China. They think of it as a singular, homogeneous country, when in reality it is a patchwork of linguistic, cultural, religious, and political identities, often defined by centuries of uneasy tension. These fissures extend beyond ethnic minorities such as Tibetans and Uyghurs. Significant divisions exist within the Han majority, which includes groups whose local dialects are mutually unintelligible. The central government is affected by rivalries among these competing factions.
The Cantonese, centered between Hong Kong and Guangzhou, are an economic juggernaut. Yet they are the most underrepresented of all major Han subgroups in the senior ranks of the Communist Party and the People's Liberation Army. Northern Chinese, including the current party and military leadership, have long distrusted the Cantonese as rebellious and disloyal.
Similarly, the Hakka subgroup based in southern China is internationally oriented and commercially successful, with members leading major companies and benefiting from a well-established diaspora. Unlike other southern Chinese communities, the Hakka traditionally have been loyal to and militarily aligned with the central government. A Hakka, He Lifeng, serves as China's trade czar; Beijing will expect him to embody the typically Hakka characteristics of having the "positive" attributes of Southerners (making money, building businesses, understanding foreign cultures) without their rebellious tendencies.
Such internal fractures represent China's greatest vulnerability and present the Trump administration with a powerful framework for advancing U.S. prosperity and security while reducing the likelihood of military conflict. Beijing's obsession with unity betrays a well-founded anxiety. China's leaders rule an empire with a historic tendency toward internal discord. A fragmented China is a distracted China, far less capable of external aggression.
The U.S. should discard the "China as monolith" fallacy and instead understand the country as an uneasy confederation of semi-aligned constituencies. Interaction with these internal groups -- through diplomacy, languages, cultural exchanges, diaspora networks and commercial channels -- will identify which constituencies are potentially compatible with U.S. interests. Even subtle gestures -- press releases, social-media statements, non-Mandarin translations -- will foster positive relationships with subgroups that Beijing works hard to suppress.
The Chinese people, too, would gain from renewed recognition of local dialects, traditions, and regional identities long buried under the orthodoxy enforced by the Communist Party.
A China grounded in regional identities and decentralized loyalties is less likely to unify behind a belligerent foreign policy. The risk of major conflict involving the U.S. would recede. Trade policy under this "many Chinas" approach could also evolve, moving from the current binary choices to differentiated relationships with internal Chinese constituencies based on alignment with U.S. priorities.
The long-term objective: shift power from Beijing and the party to local regions and populations.
This more multifaceted vision of China would defuse the party's nationalist paranoia and ease the impulse toward escalation. Recognizing the natural variations within China would displace the artificial, zero-sum narrative of U.S.-China conflict in favor of a more productive internal Chinese competition.
Beijing has worked hard to build a myth of national homogeneity and unity. The Trump administration has a historic opportunity to redefine the U.S.-China competition by engaging the reality of the "Chinas" mosaic, not the myth of the China monolith.
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Mr. Baron is founder of Baron Public Affairs, a political risk consultancy based in Washington. Mr. Furchtgott leads the firm's China practice.” [1]
1. To Counter Beijing, Try a 'Many Chinas' Policy. Baron, Jonathan M; Furchtgott, Jeremy B. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 31 May 2025: A11.
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