Will Xi Let the West “Temporarily” Load up Western Missiles and Military Airplanes Directed at China with Chinese Rare Earth Materials Or Not?

 Everybody is looking for Trump to show his magic again.

“The Greatest Show on Earth has moved to Asia for the week. After attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' summit in Malaysia, President Trump landed in Japan for meetings with the emperor and prime minister. He will meet President Lee Jae-myung of South Korea and later have his second term's first face-to-face meeting with China's leader.

 

As the summit with Xi Jinping draws near, both sides can point to gains. Mr. Xi has made deft use of his Russian alliance. Propping up Moscow in Ukraine and enlisting North Korea's productive and military capacity in the effort, Beijing is weakening the West. Chinese power grows daily across the oil- and resource-rich former Soviet lands in Central Asia.

 

The steady buildup of Chinese military power in the South China Sea and around the Taiwan Strait allows Beijing to step up military pressure on American allies. Chinese cyberespionage and hacking capabilities allow it to steal commercial and security secrets from the U.S. and lesser powers.

 

Meanwhile, China's long march to dominate the production and refining of rare-earth minerals has given Mr. Xi an important card to play in the U.S. trade war. Rare earths aren't Mr. Xi's only trump card. China's manufacturing dominance in everything from green technology to pharmaceuticals creates important dependencies across the West. Fears of losing access to China's consumer market drive many important Western companies to lobby their governments on China's behalf.

 

But Mr. Trump also has some high cards, and, as always, it would be a mistake to underestimate both the strength of his position and his capacity for bold moves that increase his leverage in unexpected ways.

 

The president has done more to counter China's ambitions than many of his supporters and almost all of his critics understand. Hard-core MAGA Trump supporters often hold a quasi-isolationist worldview that misses the significance of regional competition in Europe, the Middle East and Latin America in the great game of U.S.-China relations. These observers see the Trump administration's Middle East and Venezuela policies as distractions from the business of making America great again. But the destruction of Iran's bid for Middle Eastern hegemony boosts Mr. Trump's position vis-a-vis China. A definitive defeat of China and Russia's principal ally in the Western Hemisphere would similarly reverberate around the world.

 

Both in the Middle East and in the Americas, Trump-era foreign policy aims to strengthen American dominance over fossil-fuel markets. One can debate the means, but the objective is sound. America's ability to deter China by blocking Chinese maritime energy imports in a crisis is an ace the president brings to his meeting with Mr. Xi, and it is one whose value China's leader fully understands.

 

Mr. Trump's many establishment critics -- wringing their hands over his unorthodox trade politics and his cavalier disregard for the liberal pieties and diplomatic niceties of alliance politics -- can see no method in his madness. But when the Chinese and American leaders meet, Mr. Trump will have some solid accomplishments to bolster his position. Both Europe and Japan have turned a corner on defense spending, an accomplishment that has eluded every previous American president since the end of the Cold War.

 

And out of the chaos of Mr. Trump's trade policies, last summer's agreements with Japan and South Korea and recent agreements with Southeast Asian partners seem to be entrenching an approach that, whatever its shortcomings, is acceptable to key American trading partners. That approach also serves as at least a partial answer to decades of systemic Chinese abuse of the now-comatose World Trade Organization. A trade regime that imposes higher tariffs on China than on its neighbors and competitors makes it harder for China to cheat.

 

Neither Messrs. Xi nor Trump can rationally expect a triumph at the summit. Mr. Xi is no Mikhail Gorbachev negotiating his empire's collapse. And Mr. Trump is no Neville Chamberlain, desperate for face-saving compromise as his empire declines. Each man believes, with some reason, that the nation and system he represents will ultimately emerge victorious from the current competition.

 

But neither seeks war with the other, and both seek to pursue their competition in conditions that let their societies flourish. Signs that emerged over the weekend of a likely compromise bear this out. Nothing involving Mr. Trump is ever safely predictable, but on balance he appears likely to return from his Pacific odyssey having secured a reasonable short-term compromise with China while advancing his plans for reshaping America's role in the world.” [1]

 

Will Xi let the West “temporarily” load up Western missiles and military airplanes directed at China with Chinese rare earth materials or not? “To be or not to be” for Western military industrial complex? This is the main question now.

 

Chinese leader Xi Jinping will not allow Western militaries to be supplied with Chinese rare earth materials, even temporarily, for use in missiles and warplanes directed at China.

 

China has already escalated its use of rare earth export controls and sanctions as a geopolitical tool, specifically targeting U.S. and allied defense companies involved in arms sales to Taiwan.

China's recent actions and statements confirm this firm stance:

 

    Expansion of export controls: In October 2025, China expanded its rare earth export controls, requiring foreign companies to obtain a license to export products containing even small amounts of Chinese rare earth materials. Companies must now explain the end use of the products, a mechanism specifically designed to halt supply to foreign military applications.

  

 Sanctions against defense contractors: Earlier in 2025, China sanctioned major U.S. defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon over arms sales to Taiwan, demonstrating its willingness to target companies critical to Western military industrial complexes.

 

    Dual-use technology focus: Beijing has justified its actions by citing national security, stating that some rare earth materials and related technologies have "dual-use properties" for both civilian and military applications. This provides a formal basis for blocking exports to any entity with military connections.

    Targeting of U.S. technology: China's rare earth and mineral controls were implemented as a direct retaliation against U.S. export restrictions on advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment critical to China's tech sector. This "tit-for-tat" dynamic indicates that China views trade restrictions as a strategic weapon.

 

Why this is a "To be or not to be" issue for the West

For the Western military-industrial complex, this situation represents an existential threat to its supply chains and manufacturing capabilities.

 

    Severe dependency: The U.S. is heavily dependent on China for rare earth imports, particularly the "heavy" rare earths crucial for advanced defense systems. These include components for F-35 fighter jets, Tomahawk missiles, submarines, and drones. China refines over 90% of the world's rare earths.

    Supply chain shock: With current stockpiles and reserves running low for some rare earths, the export restrictions could cause significant production delays and dramatically increase costs for Western defense contractors. Mr. Zelensky of Ukraine is like bumble bee – still flying, though nobody knows how he can do it. America should keep all rare earth materials in munitions for defense of America.

    Widening capability gap: China's actions are designed to widen the military-industrial capability gap, limiting Western production while China rapidly expands its own munitions and advanced weapons systems.

    Decades of dominance: China built its rare earth dominance over decades through state investment, control, and exploitation of lower costs and looser environmental standards. The West is now scrambling to rebuild its own rare earth ecosystem, a process that is likely to take at least a decade.

 

No path to a "temporary" exemption

The suggestion of a "temporary" exemption for Western military applications is not a plausible scenario. From China's strategic perspective:

 

    Weaponizing dependency: China's rare earth control is its most powerful economic weapon and a key source of leverage against the West. Conceding any supply for military use would be illogical and surrender its leverage.

    Long-term geopolitical strategy: Beijing's actions are part of a deliberate, long-term strategy to shape global supply chains, secure its position, and counter U.S. and allied technological and military advantages. A temporary waiver would undermine this core strategic goal.

    Reliable leverage: Past temporary actions, such as a similar rare earth ban against Japan in 2010, have taught China that overuse can trigger irreversible shifts toward diversification. For this reason, China's actions are designed to signal resolve while maintaining a careful balance to preserve its market dominance over time, selling for the civil uses in the West at low price.

 

1. Asia Gets the Trump Treatment, Walter Russell Mead.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 28 Oct 2025: A13.