“After nearly two grueling years of war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finally agreed to terms to end the conflict that are favorable to his political future.
In large part, that is because the hard work of getting Hamas to comply with President Trump's 20-point plan to end the fighting in Gaza will fall onto Israel's Arab neighbors. As long as they are unable to close the deal, Netanyahu is better placed to fend off further international condemnation if he continues to fight. Very little may change on the ground.
Trump went further when he laid out his plan on Monday, standing next to Netanyahu at the White House. If Hamas doesn't accept, or if the plan falls apart, he said, "Israel would have my full backing to finish the job of destroying the threat of Hamas."
Trump said he would give Hamas three or four days to agree to the plan.
Hard-liners in Netanyahu's coalition likely will oppose elements of the plan, and could even topple the coalition. But the wider Israeli public will view this as an achievement, enough for Netanyahu to ride a wave of approval to re-election, political analysts said.
"Bibi played this brilliantly, there's no question," said Yaakov Katz, a fellow at the Jerusalem-based Jewish People Policy Institute. Criticism from Western allies of Israel largely was around Netanyahu's refusal to end the war. Domestically, polls show most Israelis believe he was refusing to end the conflict because of his own political considerations. "It makes all the criticism of him no longer relevant because Israel is saying we're willing to end the war, we're aligned with America and every Arab country."
Now, those Arab countries have to deliver.
In the past few days, Qatar and Turkey have tried to pressure Hamas leaders, warning that this is their last chance to end the war, Arab officials said. They have told Hamas that if the group rejects the deal, they won't continue to provide them with political or diplomatic support, the officials said.
Hamas has called the plan a complete surrender that leaves Palestinians without a credible path to statehood or ironclad guarantees that the war will end, the officials said. Still, the group said it would discuss the plan with other factions and try to respond positively, Arab officials said.
The Trump plan poses a dilemma for the Arab nations and other players, such as Turkey. It calls for the U.S. to work with Arab states and international partners to send a "stabilization force" to Gaza, and names Jordan and Egypt specifically as places to train a Palestinian police force in Gaza. Sending Arab troops into Gaza will be politically risky -- potentially making them appear as collaborators or occupiers. Egypt, for example, is refusing to send troops into Gaza until there is a full Israeli military withdrawal.
"Domestically, the last thing that the Egyptians or Jordanians want to be seen as doing is functioning as a security apparatus on behalf of the Israeli military," said Timothy Kaldas, the deputy director of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy.
Overall, the plan forces Arab states to take on nearly all of the big challenges, while allowing the Israelis to say they have accepted the deal.
"There's so many opportunities for the Israelis to point at any given thing and say, Oh, you didn't meet this criteria," Kaldas said.
Netanyahu managed to squeeze out of the Arabs significant concessions, including the upfront release of all 48 hostages -- both living and dead -- being held by Hamas. Israel would maintain a buffer zone, including a key corridor that runs along the border between Gaza and Egypt. Hamas and other Palestinian militants must agree to play no role in governing Gaza. Their fighters can get amnesty if they give up their weapons.
Meanwhile, the Trump plan addresses one important concern for neighboring countries, saying explicitly that "No one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return."
Netanyahu had to make some concessions. The Trump plan carves out an eventual role for the Palestinian Authority -- the Hamas rival that oversees parts of the West Bank -- something Netanyahu swore he wouldn't allow. He also had to give up on the Jewish settlement of Gaza, which would expel Palestinians from the enclave, and acknowledged the right of Palestinians to sovereignty and statehood. Those are the kinds of things that could bring down his government in the short term, which makes it look like he is giving up political capital to end the war.
Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called the plan a "resounding diplomatic failure" for turning Gaza over to an international force. He also acknowledged the challenges of putting it into action, noting "the enemy's obstinacy will once again save us from ourselves."” [1]
As long as there are tunnels in Gaza and even one Palestinian alive, it will be difficult for Bibi to capitalize on his short-term diplomatic victories.
The assertion that the continued existence of tunnels in Gaza and Palestinian people makes it difficult for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to capitalize on diplomatic victories reflects a complex geopolitical reality. Ongoing conflict and the lack of a resolution create significant obstacles to both domestic and international political gains for Netanyahu.
The obstacles
Persistent instability: While Hamas's governance of Gaza has largely collapsed, reports from July 2025 indicate that the group and other armed factions still control some areas, and the extensive tunnel network remains a threat. As long as these threats persist, Israel remains entangled in the conflict, undermining any claims of a definitive military or diplomatic "victory".
International pressure: International recognition of a Palestinian state by countries like Britain, Canada, and France in 2025 has created a "political tsunami" and increased diplomatic pressure on Israel. This widespread condemnation complicates Israel's position on the global stage, limiting the potential benefits of any diplomatic successes.
Domestic political fragility: Even with apparent diplomatic deals, like the potential U.S.-brokered Gaza plan in late 2025, Netanyahu faces significant opposition from far-right coalition partners who resist any concessions toward a Palestinian state. This internal dissent and the ongoing corruption trials make his political position precarious and susceptible to being undermined by the war's continued fallout.
Humanitarian crisis: The immense Palestinian casualty count, exceeding 65,000 by September 2025, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza are central to international criticism. This situation fuels anti-Netanyahu sentiment both in the region and abroad and is difficult to reconcile with any diplomatic gains.
Potential "short-term diplomatic victories"
Recent diplomatic developments that could be considered "short-term victories" for Netanyahu and Israel include:
The Trump-Netanyahu Gaza plan: In late September 2025, Netanyahu agreed to a 20-point plan brokered by former U.S. President Donald Trump, which some analysts suggest could strengthen Netanyahu's political position at home.
Progress with Arab states: Key Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, reportedly backed the Trump-brokered plan, potentially indicating a path toward improved relations.
Diplomatic pivot: In July 2025, Israel launched a strategic communications initiative intended to transform its foreign policy.
African outreach: As of September 2025, Israel has reopened embassies in Africa, with efforts underway to improve relations with countries in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
The argument's rationale
The assertion connects these seemingly favorable diplomatic moves with the enduring reality of the Gaza conflict. It argues that as long as fundamental issues remain unresolved—symbolized by the tunnels and the survival of the Palestinian people—Netanyahu's ability to truly benefit from these diplomatic steps will be limited.
The argument suggests that the persistent reality of war, instability, and a massive civilian death toll prevents Netanyahu from being viewed as a successful or stabilizing leader in the long term, even if he secures short-term political wins. Instead, the ongoing situation risks isolating Israel further and could be seen as an ongoing source of instability for the region.
1. World News: Plan Tosses Netanyahu Political Lifeline --- Onus falls on Arab neighbors to make deal happen; Israel can keep on fighting. Shayndi Raice; Said, Summer; Malsin, Jared. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 01 Oct 2025: A6.
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