Kaip Ebola ateina pas jus

Kai epidemija plinta  tokiu greičiu ir tokiais skaičiais, pasaulio ekonomika paprasčiausiai neturi pinigų su tokia epidemija susitvarkyti [1]. Karai valstybėje (tokie, kokį mes dabar kurstome Ukrainoje) žymiai pablogina galimybes susidoroti su sunkia epidemija, kaip parodo mirtinas ispaniškasis gripas Pirmojo pasaulinio metu (iki 100 milijonų aukų, kiekvienas 18-tas žmogus pasaulyje).

Pav. 1. Ligonių skaičius Afrikos Liberijoje. Ant horizontalios ašies nurodyti mėnesiai. Viršutinis skaičius ant vertikalios ašies yra vienas milijonas, keturi šimtai tūkstančių ligonių. Ir geriausias, ir blogiausias scenarijai (apatinė bei viršutinė kreivės atitinkamai) yra blogi. Koks scenarijus realizuojasi, mes dar nežinome.

1. " For a sense of the resources required to raise the tempo, consider that the 70-bed facility in Bong cost $170,000 to build. It needs a staff of 165 to treat patients and handle tasks like waste management and body disposal. It is likely to go through nearly 100 sets of overalls, gowns, sheets and hoods per day. The monthly cost of running the unit comes out at around $1m, which is about $15,000 a bed. The WHO puts the costs of a 50-bed facility at about $900,000 a month. These figures suggest that a 100,000-bed operation would cost in the region of $1 billion-$2 billion a month.
Various countries have promised substantial aid, but not yet on that scale. America has pledged $350m and set aside another $1 billion to fund the activities of its soldiers in the area. Britain has committed $200m. The World Bank has set up a $400m financing scheme; the first $105m reached the governments of the affected countries in just nine days. The UN, of which the WHO is part, has taken in about a third of the $1 billion it says it needs to fund its own efforts in the region; all told, though, Ban Ki-Moon, the UN secretary-general, sees a need for much more than that—“a 20-fold surge” in assistance.
Money is of little use without staff. China has sent some 170 medical workers to the affected countries. Cuba, long focused on medical work overseas, has sent a similar number, and has plans for 300 more. Others have been less forthcoming."