Is the moment arriving for alternatives to Signal? Signal is considered one of the most secure messaging apps in the world. Yet, in the wake of the espionage scandal involving German politicians, calls for alternatives are now growing louder. Here is a look at what is available and what these apps can do.

“Strictly speaking, Signal is hardly to blame for once again finding itself at the center of a debate regarding IT security lapses. Suspected Russian hackers may have potentially intercepted the communications of numerous high-ranking German politicians conducted via the messaging app. According to *Der Spiegel*, those affected included Bundestag President Julia Klöckner, Education Minister Karin Prien (both CDU), and Housing Minister Verena Hubertz (SPD).

 

In recent months, German and foreign security agencies have repeatedly warned of a phishing campaign targeting Signal users. In these attacks, perpetrators pose as the messenger’s support team, for instance, and request login credentials. They appear to have specifically targeted the Signal accounts of politicians, government officials, diplomats, military personnel, and journalists. With these credentials, hackers can—among other things—add additional devices to the Signal account, thereby secretly reading conversations or even locking out the actual owners entirely in order to communicate with other contacts or compromise them as well.

 

Thus, the attackers did not hack the Signal app itself or exploit a technical vulnerability; instead, they targeted the users. In fact, Signal remains one of the most secure messaging apps available. By default, all messages, calls, and group chats are end-to-end encrypted using the Signal Protocol. This ensures that neither the service provider nor third parties—such as telecom carriers, intelligence agencies, or hackers who have compromised a Wi-Fi router—can access the content. Even NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden once recommended the service.

 

Although Signal is an American service, unlike WhatsApp or other competitors, it pursues no commercial interests; instead, it is backed by the non-profit Signal Foundation. The foundation’s mission is to ensure the continued availability of secure communication.

 

Nevertheless, calls to ban politicians from using Signal are mounting. On Monday, for example, Bundestag Vice President Andrea Lindholz (CSU) urged the federal government and the Bundestag—via the newspaper *Bild*— to stop using the service. "We should consider banning Signal on official devices used by MPs and Bundestag staff," said Lindholz. Citing concerns about digital espionage, the EU Commission also recently instructed its senior officials—according to media reports—to immediately shut down a Signal group used for internal communication. Signal has since announced updates intended to make things more difficult for phishing actors.

 

No one questions the security of the encryption protocol itself. The issue is rather that Signal is designed for end consumers rather than for use in commercial or government sectors. Critics argue that Signal was not developed to meet the requirements of the public sector—specifically regarding employee verification and precise mechanisms for controlling access to digital resources, data, and systems.

 

In March 2025, the US government faced criticism after senior officials exchanged confidential information via the messaging service—including details about a planned US strike against Houthi militias in Yemen. However, the editor-in-chief of the US publication *The Atlantic* was inadvertently invited to the chat group and was able to read the sensitive messages.

 

Control over so-called metadata is another key issue. Even with full encryption, metadata can reveal details such as who communicated with whom and when. Critics of Signal point out that preventing cyber-espionage is significantly easier within closed environments.

 

Consequently, numerous European nations—including Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium—are developing their own messaging apps for secure use within government agencies. In March, Belgium began rolling out "Beam," a messaging app developed by the state-backed company Belgian Secure Communications; it is slated for use by approximately 750,000 public sector employees. Germany is collaborating with two private-sector providers should actually have rendered Signal or WhatsApp obsolete long ago.

 

One example is Wire, a Berlin-based software company founded in 2012. Its shareholders include the Schwarz Group—known for the discount retailer Lidl—which is also pursuing ambitious plans in the digital sector through its Schwarz Digits division. Bundestag Vice President Lindholz is also calling for a switch to Wire, noting that it offers a "significantly higher" level of security. The Bundestag is making Wire available available for official purposes. "But now everyone actually needs to use it," said the CSU politician.

 

Messages sent and calls made via Wire are end-to-end encrypted by default; the software's source code is publicly accessible. Since 2022, the federal government has been testing a version specifically tailored to its needs, known as "Wire Bund." The Federal Office for Information Security recently officially approved Wire for use with information classified as "Restricted" (Verschlusssachen – nur für den Dienstgebrauch), thereby enabling much broader deployment. "To be certified by the BSI for confidential communication within ministries, we had to undergo three years of testing and have our code audited," Wire CEO Benjamin Schilz told the *F.A.Z.* last December. Schilz says that a security breach like the one experienced by the US government would not have happened with Wire. "Our app is not only secure as a product but also takes user behavior into account," the Wire CEO explains. For instance, if all members of a chat group are authorized to handle documents classified as "Restricted – For Official Use Only," a green banner is clearly displayed to them. As soon as a user joins or is invited who lacks this authorization, the banner turns red.

 

However, Wire is not the only security-focused messenger used within the federal government. BWI, the IT service provider for the Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces), has developed its own messenger based on the Element platform. Information classified as "Restricted – For Official Use Only" is also transmitted via "Bwmessenger." Element is based on the Matrix protocol—an open communication standard that enables decentralized chat, video, and IP telephony.

 

All Matrix-based applications can communicate with one another. More than 25 governments worldwide have adopted Matrix-based systems. NATO’s messenger is also based on Matrix. Unlike Wire, for example, Matrix-based messengers operate in a decentralized manner. A user's data does not reside on a third-party server, and the user retains full control over the software running on their own server. If one organization's server fails, the rest of the network continues to function. This is intended to prevent millions of users from suddenly losing the ability to communicate due to technical issues.

 

The fact that there are two separate solutions within the federal government has drawn criticism. After years of rather sluggish implementation, momentum for high-security alternatives to Teams, Slack, WhatsApp, and Signal currently appears to be strong.

 

 Yet, regardless of whether politicians use Signal, Wire, or Element, one fundamental rule of IT security remains holds true: The biggest entry point for hackers remains the human factor.” [1]

 

1. Schlägt jetzt die Stunde der Signal-Alternativen?: Signal gilt als einer der sichersten Messenger der Welt. Im Zuge der Spionageaffäre um deutsche Politiker werden nun trotzdem Rufe nach Alternativen laut. Welche es gibt und was sie können. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung; Frankfurt. 29 Apr 2026: 21. Von Maximilian Sachse, Frankfurt

New EU sanctions package includes owners of Mere chain, freezing their assets, closing stores

“The Ministry of Economy and Innovation announced on Friday that the EU has added the owners of the Svetofor Group retail chain, which also owns the Mere stores operating in Lithuania, to the list of sanctioned persons.

 

As of Thursday, all of these individuals’ money and assets in the EU must be frozen, and they are prohibited from providing funds or other economic resources.

 

Sergey Šnaider, who owns the Svetofor retail chain, has been included in the sanctions list because he materially or financially supports actions that violate or threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine, based on data from the Latvian Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), the BNS news agency reports.

 

The FIU announces that the sanctions apply to the managers of Mere – the Latvian company Latprodukti and the Latvian branch of the Lithuanian company Valientė. The companies must immediately cease operations in compliance with EU sanctions restrictions.

 

According to her, S. Šnaider indirectly owns more than 50% of the shares of Latprodukti and Valiente in Latvia.

 

Russian businessman S. Šnaider, who is included in the 21st EU sanctions list, owns the retail chain Mere, which also operates in Lithuania.

 

Rosina Tutarisheva, the head of UAB Valientė, which manages the Mere stores, could not be contacted by Verslo žiniomas on Friday. We hope to update the publication after receiving a comment.

Stores are closing

 

The portal “15min” announces that stores are closing in Lithuania after this news. According to the portal’s sources, the news of the closure was completely unexpected even for the Mere employees – the lights were suddenly turned off and they were told to close the stores and vacate the building within 15 minutes.

 

According to the portal "What's happening in Kaunas", visitors to the "Mere" store in Kaunas were asked to leave the store, and it was reported that the store would no longer be open due to technical difficulties.

 

VŽ wrote that at the end of last year, several Russian citizens transferred their ownership to the Spanish company "Vigalight S.A.", which is developing the same business in Barcelona, ​​and among the managers of this company there are other, but also Russian, surnames.

 

Edvinas Grikšas, Minister of Economy and Innovation, said in October last year that despite the change of owners, "Mere" may be included in the list of sanctioned companies in the near future.

Assets frozen

 

The Ministry of Economy and Innovation informed that from July 23, all funds and economic resources belonging to the owners of "Svetofor Group" and owned, managed or controlled by them in the EU are frozen. Also, these individuals are not allowed to use any funds or economic resources, either directly or indirectly, for their benefit.

 

According to the ministry, in October last year, E. Grikšas called for the application of strict sanctions on Russian and Belarusian businesses, so that these countries' economic ties with Europe should be limited, and there should be no possibility of circumventing the sanctions.

 

"The ministry takes the position that companies that directly or indirectly contribute to the financing of the Russian regime cannot operate in Lithuania. Therefore, it is important that decisions on sanctions against specific individuals supporting Russia are primarily applied at the European Union level. The decision reached regarding the owners of Mere is an important step in reducing any direct or indirect benefit to Russia," the Minister of Economy and Innovation said in a press release.

LVK Vice President: Aiming to protect assets

 

After the EU imposed sanctions on the owners of the Russian Svetofor Group, a retail chain group that operates Mere stores in Lithuania, which were hastily closed on Friday, Marius Dubnikovas, Vice President of the Lithuanian Business Confederation (LVK), says that this is probably aimed at protecting assets so that they can be sold and withdrawn from Lithuania.

 

According to him, Mere accounts for just 1% of the country's market.

 

“It seems that they are trying to protect the assets that are there, stop the activities and most likely have as much time as possible to regroup, so that those assets can be sold and thus leave Lithuania,” M. Dubnikovas told LRT radio on Friday; BNS quoted him as saying.

 

“Equipment and goods, perhaps, to sell to some intermediate buyer, perhaps to competitors. Perhaps, there are various options here,” the economist added.

 

According to him, employees could have been ordered to close the stores within 15 minutes in order to stop payment operations: “This is most likely a reaction to some parts of the sanctions package, so that there are as few transactions as possible.”

 

According to M. Dubnikovas, “Mere” is not a significant chain in the Lithuanian market: “One percent of the market, in any system, one percent, whether it is there or not, probably does not matter much.”

 

According to the economist, the chain’s turnover per year amounts to about 70 million. EUR, while the Lithuanian retail food market at that time amounted to just over EUR 7 billion.

 

In turn, Kristupas Vaitiekūnas, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, said that he believed that the "Mere" case was the largest in the new EU sanctions package.

Business indicators

 

The turnover of Latprodukti, registered in 2020, in 2024 reached 31.57 million. EUR, which is 53% more than in 2023, the company suffered a loss of 71,800 EUR, although it worked profitably a year ago. The company's financial results for 2025 have not yet been announced. The company is directly owned by the Serbian company SKTrade DOO Beograd, and the ultimate beneficiary is S. Šneider.

 

Valientė, which operates the Mere brand stores in Lithuania, is also growing: last year the company increased its turnover by 16%, to 75.75 million. EUR (last year – 65.2 million EUR).

 

The company's website states that there are 26 Mere stores in Lithuania in Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipėda, Šiauliai, Alytus, Panevėžys, Šalčininkai, Šilutė, Telšiai, Jonava, Tauragė, Jurbarka, Kretinga, Marijampolė, Kaunas, Mažeikiai, Nauja Akmenė, Utena, Plungė and Radviliškis. There are 12 Mere stores in Latvia.”

Naujame ES sankcijų pakete – „Mere“ tinklo savininkai, įšaldomas jų turtas, uždaromos parduotuvės

“Ekonomikos ir inovacijų ministerija penktadienį pranešė, kad ES į sankcionuotų asmenų sąrašą įtraukė prekybos tinklo grupės „Svetofor Group“ savininkus, kuriems priklauso ir, Lietuvoje veikiančios, „Mere“ parduotuvės.

 

Nuo ketvirtadienio visi šių asmenų pinigai ir turtas ES privalo būti įšaldyti, jiems uždrausta suteikti lėšų ar kitų ekonominių išteklių.

 

Sergejus Šnaideris, kuriam priklauso mažmeninės prekybos tinklas „Svetofor“, įtrauktas į sankcijų sąrašą, nes materialiai ar finansiškai remia veiksmus, kurie pažeidžia ar kelia grėsmę Ukrainos teritoriniam vientisumui, suverenumui ir nepriklausomybei, remdamasi Latvijos finansinės žvalgybos tarnybos (FŽT) duomenimis, skelbia naujienų agentūra BNS.

 

FŽT skelbia, kad sankcijos taikomos „Mere“ valdytojoms – Latvijos įmonei „Latprodukti“ ir Lietuvos įmonės „Valientė“ Latvijos filialui. Įmonės privalo nedelsdamos nutraukti veiklą, laikydamosi ES sankcijų apribojimų.

 

Pasak jos, S. Šnaideriui netiesiogiai priklauso daugiau, nei po 50%, „Latprodukti“ ir „Valiente“ Latvijoje akcijų.

 

Į 21-ąjį ES sankcijų sąrašą įtrauktam Rusijos verslininkui S. Šnaideriui priklauso mažmeninės prekybos tinklas „Mere“, veikiantis ir Lietuvoje.

 

Su Rosina Tutarisheva, „Mere“ parduotuves valdančios UAB „Valientė“ vadove, penktadienį „Verslo žinioms“ nepavyko susisiekti. Tikimės papildyti publikaciją, gavę komentarą.

Uždaro parduotuves

 

Portalas „15min“ skelbia, kad po šios žinios yra uždaromos parduotuvės Lietuvoje. Portalo šaltinių duomenimis, žinia apie uždarymą buvo visiškai netikėta net „Mere“ darbuotojams – staiga buvo išjungtos šviesos ir pranešta per 15 minučių uždaryti parduotuves bei apleisti pastatą.

 

Portalo „Kas vyksta Kaune“ duomenimis, „Mere“ parduotuvės Kaune lankytojų buvo paprašyta išeiti iš parduotuvės, pranešta, kad parduotuvė nebedirbs dėl techninių kliūčių.

 

VŽ rašė, kad praėjusių metų pabaigoje keli Rusijos piliečiai savo nuosavybę perleido Ispanijos įmonei „Vigalight S.A.“, tokį pat verslą vystančiai Barselonoje, o tarp šios įmonės vadovų – kitos, bet taip pat rusiškos pavardės.

 

Edvinas Grikšas, ekonomikos ir inovacijų ministras, pernai spalį sakė, kad nepaisant pasikeitusių savininkų, „Mere“ artimiausiu metu gali būti įtrauktas į sankcionuotų įmonių sąrašą.

Įšaldė turtą

 

Ekonomikos ir inovacijų ministerija informavo, kad nuo liepos 23 d. ES įšaldomos visos su „Svetofor Group“ savininkams priklausančios, jų nuosavybes teise turimos, valdomos ar kontroliuojamos lėšos ir ekonominiai ištekliai. Taip pat šiems asmenims arba jų naudai neleidžiama nei tiesiogiai, nei netiesiogiai naudotis jokiomis lėšomis ar ekonominiais ištekliais.

 

Anot ministerijos, praėjusių metų spalį E. Grikšas paragino taikyti griežtas sankcijas Rusijos ir Baltarusijos verslui, kad šių šalių ekonominiai ryšiai su Europa turėtų būti ribojami, o sankcijų apėjimui neturėtų likti galimybių.

 

„Ministerija laikosi pozicijos, kad Lietuvoje negali veikti įmonės, kurios tiesiogiai ar netiesiogiai prisideda prie Rusijos režimo finansavimo. Todėl svarbu, kad sprendimai dėl sankcijų konkretiems asmenims remiantiems Rusiją, būtų visų pirma taikomi Europos Sąjungos lygmeniu. Pasiektas sprendimas dėl „Mere“ savininkų – tai svarbus žingsnis, kad būtų sumažintos bet koks tiesioginis ar netiesioginis naudos teikimas Rusijai“, – pranešime spaudai sako ekonomikos ir inovacijų ministras.

LVK viceprezidentas: siekiama saugoti turtą

 

ES įvedus sankcijas prekybos tinklo grupės Rusijos „Svetofor Group“ savininkams, Lietuvoje valdantiems „Mere“ parduotuves, kurios penktadienį skubiai uždarytos, Marius Dubnikovas, Lietuvos verslo konfederacijos (LVK) viceprezidentas, sako, kad taip, tikriausiai,  siekiama apsaugoti turtą, kad jį būtų galima parduoti ir pasitraukti iš Lietuvos.

 

Pasak jo, „Mere“ užima vos 1% šalies rinkos.

 

„Panašu į tai, kad bandoma apsaugoti turtą, kuris yra, stabdyti veiklą ir greičiausiai pasilikti kaip įmanoma daugiau laiko persigrupavimui, kad tą turtą galimai būtų galima parduoti ir tokiu būdu pasitraukti iš Lietuvos“, – LRT radijui penktadienį sakė M. Dubnikovas; jį cituoja BNS.

 

„Įrangą ir prekes, galbūt, parduoti kažkokiam tarpiniam pirkėjui, galbūt konkurentams. Galbūt, įvairių čia variantų“, – pridūrė ekonomistas.

 

Jo teigimu, darbuotojams per 15 minučių uždaryti parduotuves galėjo būti liepta, siekiant nebetęsti mokėjimų operacijų: „Tai greičiausiai reaguojama į kažkokias sankcijų paketo dalis, kad būtų kaip įmanoma mažiau transakcijų.“

 

Pasak M. Dubnikovo, „Mere“ nėra reikšmingas tinklas Lietuvos rinkoje: „Vienas procentas rinkos, bet kurioje sistemoje vienas procentas ar jis yra, ar jo nėra, turbūt, kad neturi didelės reikšmės.“

 

Anot ekonomisto, tinklo apyvarta per metus siekia apie 70 mln. Eur, tuo metu Lietuvos mažmeninės maisto prekybos rinka siekia kiek daugiau, negu 7 mlrd. Eur.

 

Savo ruožtu Kristupas Vaitiekūnas, užsienio reikalų viceministras, teigė manantis, kad „Mere“ atvejis bus didžiausias naujame ES sankcijų pakete.

Verslų rodikliai

 

2020 m. įregistruotos „Latprodukti“ apyvarta 2024 m. siekė 31,57 mln. Eur, tai 53% daugiau, nei 2023 m., įmonė patyrė 71.800 Eur nuostolių, nors prieš metus dirbo pelningai. Įmonės 2025 m. finansiniai rezultatai kol kas nėra paskelbti. Įmonė tiesiogiai priklauso Serbijos įmonei „SKTrade DOO Beograd“, o tikrasis naudos gavėjas yra S. Šneideris.

 

„Valientė“, Lietuvoje valdanti „Mere“ prekių ženklo parduotuves, taip pat auga: pernai įmonė apyvartą išaugino 16%, iki 75,75 mln. Eur (užpernai – 65,2 mln. Eur).

 

Įmonės internetiniame puslapyje nurodoma, kad Lietuvoje veikia 26 „Mere“ parduotuvės Vilniuje, Kaune, Klaipėdoje, Šiauliuose, Alytuje, Panevėžyje, Šalčininkuose, Šilutėje, Telšiuose, Jonavoje, Tauragėje, Jurbarke, Kretingoje, Marijampolėje, Kaune, Mažeikiuose, Naujoje Akmenėje, Utenoje, Plungėje ir Radviliškyje. Latvijoje yra 12 „Mere“ parduotuvių."

 

“If you arrange your flower bed wisely, some plants replace others and you can’t even see the old leaves.”

“”I left all the leaves of the tulips, hyacinths, and daffodils here, and they are not visible at all, because the hakone has taken over everything. The egg garlic is very beautifully visible through it, and later by late autumn the large-leaved hydrangeas will bloom. I will have a flower bed that is constantly changing and gives only pleasure. The only work that will need to be done is to cut the hakone in late autumn,” advises T. Gurskas. Another element of a low-maintenance garden is mulching. Mulch not only retains moisture, supports biodiversity and mycelium life, but also protects the soil from erosion and prevents rain from washing away organic matter.

 

For those planning flower beds, T. Gurskas advises not to be afraid to plant densely – about 10-11 plants per square meter. When they grow up, they will quickly cover the ground, suppress weeds and create a natural look.”

„Jeigu protingai sudėliojate savo gėlyną, vieni augalai keičia kitus ir netgi nesimato senų lapų.”

 

“”Čia palikau visus tulpių, hiacintų, narcizų lapus, ir jų visiškai nesimato, nes hakonė užokupavo viską. Per ją labai gražiai pralindo kiaušininis česnakas, vėliau iki vėlyvo rudens dar sužydės didžialapės hortenzijos. Turėsiu gėlyną, kuris nuolat keičiasi ir teikia tik malonumą. Vienintelis darbas, kurį reikės padaryti – vėlai rudenį nukirpti hakonę“, – pataria T. Gurskas. Kitas mažesnės priežiūros sodo elementas – mulčiavimas. Mulčas ne tik sulaiko drėgmę, palaiko biologinę įvairovę bei grybienos gyvenimą, bet ir saugo dirvą nuo erozijos bei neleidžia liūtims išplauti organikos.

 

Planuojantiems gėlynus T. Gurskas pataria nebijoti sodinti tankiai – maždaug 10–11 augalų į kvadratinį metrą. Užaugę jie greitai uždengs žemę, nustelbs piktžoles ir sukurs natūralų vaizdą.”

 

 

 

US President D. Trump Proved Right – empowered by the US-given coordinates attacks by Zelensky deep inside Russia, including on the warehouses of Wildberries, the Russian Amazon, are a noteworthy escalation: the Russians blocked Ukrainian ports – the price will be nightmarish for the whole world

Even in the US, this has caused diesel prices to rise, which will affect the D. Trump party’s chances of winning this year’s elections.

 

The coordinates of targets in Russia and the rising diesel prices are causing great tension in the US, which could affect the outcome of the US elections.

Escalation of the conflict and its consequences

• Coordinates for deep strikes: Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russian territory are increasing tensions and raising concerns about the further escalation of the conflict.

• Port blockade: Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports is disrupting global food and commodity trade and making resources more expensive.

• Economic impact: The disruptions in diesel prices in the US are putting pressure on the government and affecting political ratings.

 

Russia’s complete blockade of Ukraine’s seaports is costing Ukraine’s economy between 0.3% and 1% of GDP each month and threatens to trigger a new global food price shock. As Russian missile and drone attacks on cargo ships and grain terminals intensified, shipowners have completely halted shipping through Ukraine’s Black Sea corridor, citing critical security risks.

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A blow to Ukraine’s economy

The closure of ports is a critical challenge for Ukraine, as the country exports about 90% of its agricultural products and raw materials through them.

• Lost currency: The country is losing more than $2 billion in export earnings each month.

• Logistics collapse: Grain stocks are piling up in warehouses, and farmers are facing a shortage of working capital for the upcoming sowing season.

• Rising transport costs: A planned 30% increase in rail tariffs for the agricultural sector will further increase the pressure on businesses.

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Global food price crisis

With Ukraine and Russia together controlling about 30% of the global wheat market, the closure of sea routes has immediately destabilized international trade.

• Wheat prices soar: International wheat prices have already reached their highest levels in two years.

• Other commodities rising in price: Corn and rapeseed prices are rising rapidly.

• Threat to the most vulnerable: Food price inflation will hit import-dependent countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East hardest.

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Escalation of the situation in the Black Sea

The situation has reached its most dangerous point since spring 2022, as military action has moved directly into trade routes:

1. Attacks on ships: Russian forces have destroyed several cargo ships (including the Golden Leo), killing foreign crew members.

This conflict is taking place against a backdrop of unfavorable global conditions for Trump – a war in the Middle East has already disrupted the supply of fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz, and Europe and other regions are suffering from a heatwave that is destroying crops.

 

Who is quietly laughing in the corner? It’s J. Biden, who has avoided such escalations.

 

JAV prezidentas D. Trumpas pasirodė teisus – JAV teikiamų, taikinių Rusijoje kordinačių įgalintos, Zelenskio atakos giliai Rusijoje, įskaitant, rusų Amazone vadinamos, Wildberries sandėlius, yra dėmesio verta eskalacija: rusai blokavo Ukrainos uostus – kaina bus košmariška visam pasauliui

Net JAV tai sukėlė dyzelio kainas, kas paveiks Trumpo partijos šansus laimėti šių metų rinkimuose.

 

Dėl taikinių Rusijoje koordinavimo ir didėjančių dyzelio kainų JAV kyla didelė įtampa, galinti paveikti rinkimų JAV baigtį.

Konflikto eskalacija ir pasekmės

•           Koordinuoti smūgiai: Ukrainos atakos giliai Rusijos teritorijoje didina įtampą ir kelia nerimą dėl tolesnio konflikto augimo.

•           Uostų blokada: Rusijos vykdoma Ukrainos uostų blokada trikdo pasaulinę maisto bei prekių prekybą ir brangina resursus.

•           Ekonominis poveikis: Dėl sutrikimų kilusios dyzelio kainos JAV daro spaudimą valdžiai ir veikia politinius reitingus.

 

Rusijos vykdoma visiška Ukrainos jūrų uostų blokada kas mėnesį Ukrainos ekonomikai kainuos nuo 0,3 % iki 1 % BVP ir grasina sukelti naują pasaulinį maisto kainų šoką. Suintensyvėjus Rusijos raketų ir dronų atakoms prieš krovinių laivus bei grūdų terminalus, laivų savininkai dėl kritinės rizikos saugumui visiškai sustabdė laivybą Ukrainos Juodosios jūros koridoriumi.

________________________________________

Smūgis Ukrainos ekonomikai

Ukrainai uostų uždarymas yra kritinis iššūkis, nes šalis per juos eksportuoja apie 90 % savo žemės ūkio produkcijos ir žaliavų.

•     Prarandama valiuta: Kas mėnesį šalis netenka daugiau nei 2 mlrd. JAV dolerių eksporto pajamų.

•           Logistikos kolapsas: Grūdų atsargos kaupiasi sandėliuose, o ūkininkams gresia apyvartinių lėšų trūkumas būsimai sėjai.

•           Brangstantis transportas: Planuojamas geležinkelių tarifų didinimas 30 % agrosektoriui dar labiau padidins spaudimą verslui.

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Pasaulinė maisto kainų krizė

Kadangi Ukraina ir Rusija kartu kontroliuoja apie 30 % pasaulinės kviečių rinkos, jūrų kelių užvėrimas iškart destabilizavo tarptautinę prekybą.

•           Kviečių kainų šuolis: Tarptautinės kviečių kainos jau pasiekė aukščiausią lygį per pastaruosius dvejus metus.

•           Brangstantys kiti produktai: Sparčiai kyla kukurūzų ir rapsų kainos.

•           Grėsmė pažeidžiamiausiems: Maisto kainų infliacija skaudžiausiai smogti importo priklausomoms šalis Afrikoje, Azijoje ir Artimuosiuose Rytuose.

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Situacijos paaštrėjimas Juodojoje jūroje

Padėtis pasiekė pavojingiausią tašką nuo 2022 m. pavasario, nes kariniai veiksmai persikėlė tiesiai į prekybinius maršrutus:

       Atakos prieš laivus: Rusijos pajėgos sunaikino kelis krovinių laivus (įskaitant „Golden Leo“), žuvo užsienio šalių įgulos nariai.

Šis konfliktas vyksta, esant D. Trumpui nepalankioms pasaulinėms sąlygoms – karas Artimuosiuose Rytuose jau yra sutrikdęs trąšų tiekimą per Hormūzo sąsiaurį, o Europą bei kitus regionus alina, pasėlius naikinantys, karščiai.

 

Kas ten kamputyje tyliai juokiasi? Ogi J. Bidenas, kuris vengė tokių eskalacijų.