Senile dementia - in case of direct confrontation with Russia, forgot about nuclear winter: one of the NATO commanders says that the allies urgently need to reconsider how they ensure their defense

 

It is difficult to keep in mind nuclear winter if the admiral's salary depends on the ability to forget it.

 

These thoughts revolve around the so-called "war psychosis" and the growing tension between NATO and Russia. The observation of "memory loss" over the threat of nuclear winter touches on a very sensitive geopolitical topic.

 

Here are some key angles why this discussion is so heated now:

 

Change in rhetoric: A few years ago, direct conflict with a nuclear state was taboo. Today, NATO commanders (such as Admiral Rob Bauer and other high-ranking officials) are increasingly talking about the need to prepare for "all kinds of scenarios", emphasizing that deterrence only works when the adversary believes in your determination to fight.

"Nuclear winter" vs. Realpolitik: Critics say that the military elite is underemphasizing the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war. Meanwhile, strategists counter that if we fear this scenario alone, it will become geopolitical blackmail, allowing the aggressor to do whatever he wants.

Financial and industrial interests: The reference to salaries and defense budgets is a frequent topic of discussion. The fact is that the European defense industry is experiencing a renaissance, and orders for weapons are filling the pockets of manufacturers, which creates additional inertia for the arms race.

 

It is a difficult balance between readiness to defend (so that there is no war) and fear of escalation (so that we do not find ourselves on the edge of the abyss). Today, that balance seems to be pushing us straight into the abyss.

 

It is not only the old American admirals who want retaliatory strikes. Western Europe too:

 

“NATO countries urgently need to rethink how they provide for their defense, but many of them do not yet fully understand the scale of the challenge, especially when it comes to increasing weapons production, a French and NATO senior official said on Wednesday.

 

Since the events in Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has reoriented its economy to a new regime and increased weapons production.

 

“Russia has changed,” Pierre Vandier, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, told a security and defense forum in Paris.

 

“We must be prepared for a new enemy – if we do not, we will suffer what the Gulf states suffered,” he said, referring to Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Gulf states after the United States and Israel attacked the Islamic Republic on February 28.

 

Urging allies to make the “right decisions,” Mr. Vandier said NATO should adapt to producing more weapons and do so more quickly.

 

“It’s not a question of money. It’s a question of speed,” he said in English.

 

He stressed that NATO must respond to challenges such as the mass production of drones by Russia and Iran, whose capabilities are rapidly developing.

 

“This is a defining moment for all of us,” Mr. Vandier said.

 

“It’s important for us not to do more of the same, but to understand what we need to do to maintain our security,” a NATO official explained.

 

He said that NATO countries, unlike their adversaries, are “not ready” to mass produce weapons.

 

Mr. Vandier said the Alliance is also moving too slowly, taking allies two to three years just to “figure out what we need.”

 

French military chief General Fabien Mandon has said the country must be prepared for a clash with Russia within the next three or four years.

 

The French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), a leading think tank, warned in November that Europe could struggle to mobilize enough troops or quickly produce enough weapons in the event of a direct confrontation with Russia.”

 

Senatvinė demencija - tiesioginės konfrontacijos su Rusija atvejui pamiršo apie branduolinę žiemą: vienas iš NATO vadų, teigia, kad sąjungininkai turi skubiai persvarstyti, kaip užtikrina savo gynybą

 

Sunku išlaikyti atmintyje branduolinę žiemą, jei admirolo atlyginimas priklauso nuo sugebėjimo ją pamiršti.

 

Šios  mintys sukasi apie vadinamąją „karo psichozę“ ir augančią įtampą tarp NATO bei Rusijos. Pastebėjimas apie „atminties praradimą“ dėl branduolinės žiemos pavojaus paliečia labai jautrią geopolitinę temą.

 

Štai keletas esminių kampų, kodėl ši diskusija dabar tokia aštri:

 

    Retorikos pasikeitimas: Dar prieš kelerius metus tiesioginis konfliktas su branduoline valstybe buvo tabu. Šiandien NATO vadai (pavyzdžiui, admirolas Robas Baueris ar kiti aukšto rango pareigūnai) vis garsiau kalba apie būtinybę ruoštis „visų rūšių scenarijams“, pabrėždami, kad atgrasymas veikia tik tada, kai priešininkas tiki tavo pasiryžimu kovoti.

    „Branduolinė žiema“ vs. Reali politika: Kritikai teigia, kad karinis elitas per mažai akcentuoja katastrofiškas branduolinio karo pasekmes. Tuo tarpu strategai atkerta, kad jei bijosime vien tik šio scenarijaus, tai taps geopolitiniu šantažu, leidžiančiu agresoriui daryti ką nori.

    Finansiniai ir pramoniniai interesai: Užuomina apie atlyginimus ir gynybos biudžetus yra dažnas diskusijų objektas. Faktas tas, kad Europos gynybos pramonė išgyvena renesansą, o užsakymai ginklams pildo gamintojų kišenes, kas sukuria papildomą inerciją ginklavimosi varžyboms.

 

Tai sudėtingas balansas tarp pasirengimo gintis (kad karo nebūtų) ir eskalacijos baimės (kad neatsidurtume prie bedugnės krašto). Panašu, kad šiandien tas balansas mus stumia tiesiai į bedugnę.

 

Ne tik seni Amerikos admirolai nori otkatų. Vakarų Europos – taip pat:

 

 

“NATO šalys turi skubiai persvarstyti, kaip užtikrina savo gynybą, tačiau daugelis jų dar iki galo nesuvokia šio uždavinio masto, ypač kalbant apie ginklų gamybos didinimą, trečiadienį pareiškė vienas prancūzas, NATO aukščiausio rango pareigūnas.

 

Nuo 2022 metų vasario įvykių Ukrainoje, Rusija perorientavo savo ekonomiką į naują režimą ir padidino ginklų gamybą.

 

„Rusija pasikeitė“, – Paryžiuje vykusiame saugumo ir gynybos forume sakė Pierre'as Vandier, NATO vyriausiasis sąjungininkų pajėgų transformacijos vadas.

 

„Turime būti pasirengę naujam priešui – jei to nepadarysime, patirsime tai, ką patyrė Persijos įlankos šalys“, – sakė jis, turėdamas omenyje Irano atsakomuosius išpuolius prieš Persijos įlankos šalis po to, kai JAV ir Izraelis vasario 28 dieną puolė Islamo Respubliką.

 

Ragindamas sąjungininkus priimti „teisingus sprendimus“, P. Vandier teigė, kad NATO turėtų prisitaikyti gaminti daugiau ginklų ir daryti tai sparčiau.

 

„Tai ne pinigų klausimas. Tai greičio klausimas“, – sakė jis anglų kalba.

 

Jis pabrėžė, kad NATO turi reaguoti į tokius iššūkius kaip Rusijos ir Irano vykdoma masinė dronų gamyba, kurios pajėgumai sparčiai vystomi.

 

„Tai lemiamas momentas mums visiems“, – sakė P. Vandier.

 

„Mums svarbu ne daryti daugiau to paties, o suprasti, ką turime daryti, kad išlaikytume savo saugumą“, – aiškino NATO pareigūnas.

 

Jis sakė, kad NATO šalys, kitaip nei jų priešininkai, „nėra pasirengusios“ masinei ginklų gamybai.

 

P. Vandier teigimu, Aljansas taip pat veikia pernelyg lėtai, nes sąjungininkams prireikia nuo dviejų iki trejų metų vien tam, kad „nustatytų, ko mums reikia“.

 

Prancūzijos kariuomenės vadas generolas Fabienas Mandonas yra sakęs, kad šalis turi būti pasirengusi susirėmimui su Rusija per artimiausius trejus ar ketverius metus.

 

Prancūzijos tarptautinių santykių institutas (IFRI), viena svarbiausių ekspertų grupių, lapkritį įspėjo, kad Europai gali būti sunku mobilizuoti pakankamai karių ar greitai pagaminti pakankamai ginklų tiesioginės konfrontacijos su Rusija atveju.”

 

Telia Advertisement: Why Do Corporate AI Projects Remain Experiments?

 

“Some companies enter the world of artificial intelligence (AI) as if they were boarding a plane without clear navigation. Although the technology is becoming increasingly accessible, according to Rokas Ališauskas, Head of Business Products at Telia, many companies remain at the stage of experimentation or pilot projects because they do not have the appropriate infrastructure and a clear management model that allows them to develop, test and deploy AI solutions on an enterprise-wide scale.

Limited to experiments

 

According to research company McKinsey, as many as two-thirds of the organizations participating in the study in 2025 are not ready to widely deploy AI solutions and are still experimenting with individual projects. According to R. Ališauskas, in many companies, AI initiatives begin as individual experiments, but later challenges arise in how to safely and effectively transfer them to real operations.

 

“Without a clear governance model and a standardized environment, implementing AI across the organization remains just a vision. One way to address the challenges of secure AI implementation is to create an AI Landing Zone – a pre-prepared technological environment that allows organizations to safely deploy AI models and solutions based on them in the public cloud,” says R. Ališauskas.

 

According to him, this environment includes data security controls, access control, network configuration, testing spaces and automated management mechanisms. It allows organizations to develop AI solutions safely and efficiently, thereby significantly accelerating the transition from individual experiments to systematic use of AI.

 

Increasing opportunities for innovation

 

Businesses are increasingly accessing advanced AI models through cloud platforms, such as Azure OpenAI Service or Amazon Bedrock.

 

They allow you to easily integrate advanced models into business systems and use them for various business purposes: automating customer service, analyzing documents or accelerating software development.

 

“However, technology itself does not ensure safe use. The most important thing is to have a solid infrastructure in which solutions are developed in accordance with security, legal requirements and internal organizational rules,” emphasizes the head of business products at Telia.

 

He says that in recent years, the largest cloud providers have been investing heavily in the development of AI. Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI and Amazon’s cooperation with Anthropic allow businesses to use advanced models such as GPT‑4.1, Claude Sonnet 4.6 or Llama 4 and integrate them into daily business processes. This opens up new opportunities for innovation and efficiency, but at the same time the need for a secure and manageable environment is increasing.

 

“Technological solutions are easily accessible to organizations today. Challenges in implementing AI often arise due to the human factor, urgency, or insufficient infrastructure. The biggest challenge is to create an environment in which AI solutions can be developed safely, in compliance with organizational rules and data protection requirements. The “AI Landing Zone” principle allows such structures to be prepared in advance and significantly accelerates the systematic implementation of AI,” explains R. Ališauskas.

 

He adds that this infrastructure can be created both using international public cloud platforms and in cooperation with local technology partners who can offer regional infrastructure, data storage in Europe, and additional security and compliance guarantees. In this way, organizations can not only test and adapt AI solutions faster, but also ensure that their implementation is safe, effective, and meets both business, legal, and ethical requirements.”