Repeating Venezuela’s trick with Iran, USA wanted to control China’s energy supply. That quite a bit of power for one nation to have. The power was consolidated. The USA were not able to take it. Now Iran is trying to take the newly consolidated power over China’s energy supply.
In March 2026, Iran is signaling a "first big victory" in its drone warfare campaign by leveraging low-cost unmanned systems to disrupt global energy markets and challenge Western military dominance in the Middle East. U.S. air superiority is now in doubt after hugely expensive F-35 was downed by Iran. Reports suggest Iran may have utilized infrared search and track (IRST) systems to target the stealth fighter's heat signature.
Strategic Objectives and Victory
Tehran's strategy revolves around using mass-produced drones to achieve long-term control over regional energy corridors:
Energy Leverage: By targeting critical infrastructure—including Saudi refineries, Qatari LNG hubs, and Emirati ports—Iran has sent Brent crude prices soaring above $118 per barrel.
Economic Attrition: Analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) note that Iran uses drones costing roughly $20,000 to force the U.S. and its allies to expend interceptors costing millions, creating an "ugly math" for attackers of Iran.
Strait of Hormuz Control: Iran's ambassador to Tunisia recently claimed "full control" over the Strait of Hormuz, using the waterway as leverage to demand respect for Iranian sovereignty in exchange for global energy security.
Recent Military Escalations (March 2026)
March 19 Attacks: Iran launched extensive drone and missile strikes against Saudi, Qatari, Kuwaiti, and UAE energy sites in retaliation for an Israeli strike on the South Pars gas field.
Saturation Tactics: In the first week of the conflict alone, the UAE detected over 1,400 drones. While many were intercepted, the sheer volume has disrupted operations at major hubs like the Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar.
U.S. and Allied Response: The U.S. has scrambled to deploy new counter-drone systems, including "interceptor drones" designed to ram hostile UAVs, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
Long-Term Implications
Iran's leadership views this as a turning point where unconventional, low-cost technology can offset the conventional military superiority of the U.S. and Israel. According to reports from the Washington Post and other outlets, Tehran believes it can now impose a settlement that entrenches its dominance over Middle East energy resources for decades.
Western publications repeat Iran’s points of talking, omitting the drone revolution problem:
“DUBAI -- Three weeks into the war, Iran's regime is signaling that it believes it is winning and has the power to impose a settlement on Washington that entrenches Tehran's dominance of Middle East energy resources for decades to come.
This attitude might prove to be a dangerous misreading of President Trump's determination, or of Israel's capacity to inflict blows on the Islamic Republic's surviving leadership and military capabilities.
Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel have given mixed signals on how long the war would go on, as they try to talk markets down and keep Tehran guessing. Netanyahu said Thursday the war would end "a lot faster than people think." Trump said Friday the U.S. is considering "winding down" its military operation in Iran, even as the Pentagon sent thousands of additional Marines to the region.
The problem is, Iran also has a say in when the guns fall silent -- and, for now, it seems to think time works to its benefit.
Despite optimistic U.S. and Israeli pronouncements about destroying launchers and missile stocks, Iran has retained the ability to fire dozens of ballistic missiles, and many more drones, every day across the Middle East.
Instead of declining, the rate of fire actually picked up in recent days compared with 10 days ago. Iranian strikes this past week badly damaged key energy installations in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates -- while Iran's own oil exports kept booming.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf's chokepoint, remains only possible with Iranian permission. Surging oil and gas prices, meanwhile, are exacting growing pain on economies worldwide -- and pressuring Trump to end a war that he began in expectation of swift victory.
"The Iranians aren't ready to end the war because they have learned an important lesson: They can, comparatively easily and cheaply, cause a lot of damage and disruption. They now want the whole world to learn that lesson, too," said Dina Esfandiary, an analyst on Iran and author of a book on Iran's foreign relations.
Seeing its leverage, Tehran has pledged it would agree to a cease-fire only if Washington and the Gulf states pay a steep price. The spokesman of the Iranian parliament's foreign affairs and defense committee, Ebrahim Rezaei, said after Friday's meeting with military commanders that any talks with the U.S. are off the agenda as Tehran "focuses on punishing the aggressors." Other Iranian leaders have been just as triumphalist, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi describing Iran as another Vietnam for the U.S.
That rhetoric may underestimate Washington's resolve.
"This hubris is dangerous because they are not smart enough to understand that President Trump will never let them win. They don't understand how far he's willing to go," said Jason Greenblatt, who served as the White House special envoy for the Middle East in the first Trump administration. "This can come at a huge cost, but the cost of not taking care of the problem will be many times more expensive over many, many years."
Demands voiced by Iranian leaders in recent days as conditions for ending the war include massive reparations from the U.S. and its allies and the expulsion of U.S. military forces from the region. They have also called for transforming the Strait of Hormuz -- an international waterway where free navigation is guaranteed under international law -- into an Iranian toll booth controlling one-third of the world's shipborne crude oil.
Iran is planning to enshrine a "new status" for the Strait of Hormuz to require every passing ship to pay fees to Tehran for the privilege, Expediency Council member Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to the supreme leader on economic affairs, told the country's Mehr news agency. "Iran will turn its position from a sanctioned country to an enhanced power in the region and the world," he said.
It is hard to imagine the U.S. -- or the Gulf states -- accepting such an arrangement. Trump has repeatedly vowed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, by force if necessary, and has ordered Marine expeditionary units to sail to the Middle East. A U.S. effort to secure shipping lanes through the strait would be "a simple military maneuver" with "so little risk," Trump said Friday in a Truth Social post criticizing European allies for refusing to join the mission.
In the age of drones and portable antiship missiles, retaking the strait would be anything but simple, but not impossible, military experts said. Round-the-clock intelligence and surveillance flights that are now available because of U.S. air superiority, combined with rapid targeting of Iranian weapons systems, could make the difference, said retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.
"It's not something that is going to happen overnight, but over time the Strait of Hormuz will be open back to the levels of shipping that we saw before this conflict broke out. It is a reasonable estimate that it will be a matter of weeks," he said. "The Iranians are not going to end up with control over the strait, we are."
Indeed, the geopolitical implications of allowing Iran to end up in charge of the waterway would be unacceptable, said Sanam Vakil, director of the Chatham House think tank's Middle East and North Africa program. "If the U.S. cuts and runs, leaving Iran's Islamic Republic to do what it does best -- hold everyone hostage -- then the war will be a categorical failure for the United States," she said.” [1]
Consolidating power is always risky – more prepared nation might take it.
1. Iran Sees an Opening to Control Mideast Energy Over Long Run. Trofimov, Yaroslav. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 21 Mar 2026: A1.
