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2017 m. kovo 24 d., penktadienis

What is Brexit?

It is Anglo-Saxon country's (in this case United Kingdom) attempts to get free movement of capital, goods and services while restricting movement of work force to and from neighboring countries. How did such a trick play out in history? Not very well indeed. The closest analogy is NAFTA where Anglo-Saxon country (in this particular case United States of America) attempts to get free movement of capital, goods and services while restricting movement of work force to and from neighboring countries (in NAFTA's case most importantly to and from Mexico). History shows that this arrangement in NAFTA is bad for the Anglo-Saxon country under consideration (USA). Jobs* together with capital leave the United States for places where work force costs less. Pissed off middle class in the Anglo-Saxon country (USA) organizes populist instability (do you want USA Republican party, anyone?).  Low cost work force country stays with low cost work force, and stagnates (Mexico, we are talking about you).

Bottom line - history shows that what the United Kingdom wants to get from the Brexit is a recipe for social dislocation and instability both inside of the United Kingdom, and in the continental Europe. It would be really foolish to give the United Kingdom what it wants. Many more smart asses also would like to repeat the United Kingdom's trick. That would rip the European Union apart. That will not happen. Good luck, and good night, United Kingdom. Sleep well, have great dreams. Hard Brexit is in the cards for you.

*80% of jobs removes automation. That makes leftover 20% of jobs even ore precious.

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