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2025 m. spalio 6 d., pirmadienis

Fears of Economic Turmoil Deepen in France as Another Prime Minister Quits


“The surprise resignation of Sébastien Lecornu after less than a month in office intensified concerns that France would be unable to tackle its enormous debt pile.

 

The French stock market tumbled on Monday, the euro fell and investors drove France’s borrowing costs to near record levels after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu stepped down after less than a month in office.

 

The surprise resignation of Mr. Lecornu, the third prime minister to quit in less than a year, deepened fears that France was becoming increasingly ungovernable and unable to tackle a looming financial crunch.

 

The benchmark CAC 40 stock index in Paris slumped 2 percent, while the spread between the yields of French and German government debt, which reflects investors’ perceived risk of lending to France, widened to a near record high. Investors pushed the yield on France’s 10-year bonds to 3.57 percent, close to a 14-year high. The euro dropped 0.6 percent against the dollar.

 

The resignation intensifies the turmoil engulfing the European Union’s second-largest economy, behind that of Germany. Mr. Lecornu was supposed to present a budget on Tuesday to tackle an alarming surge in France’s debt and deficit. Now, those efforts have been set back yet again.

 

Salomon Fiedler, an analyst at Berenberg Bank, wrote in a note to clients, “This further increases the risk that France’s fiscal troubles will remain unresolved and that economic policies will become less growth-friendly.”

 

“The French economy has turned from outperformer into the eurozone’s main laggard,” he added.

 

France has been in the throes of fiscal and political uncertainty since Mr. Macron called snap parliamentary elections in mid-2024, a political gamble intended to stem the rise of the far-right National Rally party.

 

That maneuver backfired, leading to a deeply divided Parliament.

 

Three prime ministers have been ousted from power since then, after failed attempts to address the deficit with sharp spending cuts.

 

Mr. Macron has said he will not hold new parliamentary elections, but his apparent inability to keep a government together may force him to call a vote this year or in early 2026, analysts said.

 

Mr. Macron is likely to appoint a new technocratic prime minister to try to push through a budget for next year. In a more extreme case, Mr. Macron could heed the mounting calls on Monday from opposition parties to resign and bring forward a presidential election scheduled for April 2027.

 

The latest crisis was ignited less than 12 hours after Mr. Lecornu named a cabinet that included a fateful twist: the appointment of the former finance minister Bruno Le Maire as defense minister.

 

Mr. Le Maire, who held the finance post for seven years, was cycled out of the government when Mr. Macron dissolved Parliament. The Republicans, a center-right party whose support Mr. Lecornu needed, had blamed Mr. Le Maire for piling on debt while he was finance minister and were outraged to see him return to a cabinet post.

 

Mr. Lecornu was the latest prime minister to try to prioritize addressing France’s unraveling finances. But with warring political factions on the left, right and center of Parliament all digging in on their positions, he had no clear majority to pass a belt-tightening budget that might have assuaged nervous investors.

 

Two nationwide demonstrations over the past month featured raucous protesters demanding that the government return taxes on the ultrarich, roll back a recent increase in the official retirement age and halt a rise in military spending. (No more Ukraine.)

 

After years of outsize government spending and falling tax receipts, France’s budget deficit reached 168.6 billion euros, about $198 billion, or 5.8 percent of its economic output, in 2024. The deficit is the country’s largest since World War II and well above the 3 percent limit set by the European Union.

 

France’s debt exceeded €3.4 trillion in September, one of the largest burdens among eurozone countries. The country’s sovereign debt rating was downgraded twice after Mr. Macron appointed Mr. Lecornu prime minister in early September, with one major rating company warning of “increased fragmentation and polarization of domestic politics.”

 

If nothing is done, interest payments will become the French budget’s biggest expense in four years.

 

France’s biggest banks, which hold large amounts of French sovereign debt, were pummeled on Monday, with shares in BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Crédit Agricole down sharply.” [1]

 

1. Fears of Economic Turmoil Deepen in France as Another Prime Minister Quits. Alderman, Liz.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Oct 6, 2025.

Prancūzijoje didėja ekonominės suirutės baimė, atsistatydinus dar vienam ministrui pirmininkui

 

„Sébastien Lecornu netikėtas atsistatydinimas po mažiau nei mėnesio darbo sustiprino susirūpinimą, kad Prancūzija nesugebės susidoroti su milžiniška skolų krūva.

 

Pirmadienį Prancūzijos akcijų rinka smuko, euras krito, o investuotojai padidino Prancūzijos skolinimosi išlaidas iki beveik rekordinio lygio po to, kai ministras pirmininkas Sébastien Lecornu atsistatydino po mažiau nei mėnesio darbo.

 

Pono Lecornu, trečiojo ministro pirmininko, atsistatydinusio per mažiau nei metus, netikėtas atsistatydinimas sustiprino baimes, kad Prancūzija tampa vis labiau nevaldoma ir nesugeba susidoroti su artėjančia finansine krize.

 

Paryžiaus akcijų indeksas CAC 40 sumažėjo 2 procentais, o skirtumas tarp Prancūzijos ir Vokietijos vyriausybės skolos pajamingumo, kuris atspindi investuotojų suvokiamą skolinimo Prancūzijai riziką, padidėjo iki beveik rekordinio lygio. Investuotojai padidino Prancūzijos 10 metų obligacijų pajamingumą iki 3,57 procento, beveik 14 metų aukštumų. Euras, palyginti su... doleris.

 

Atsistatydinimas dar labiau sustiprina suirutę, apėmusią antrą pagal dydį Europos Sąjungos ekonomiką po Vokietijos. Ponas Lecornu antradienį turėjo pateikti biudžetą, skirtą spręsti nerimą keliantį Prancūzijos skolos ir deficito augimą. Dabar šios pastangos vėl buvo sužlugdytos.

 

„Berenberg Bank“ analitikas Salomonas Fiedleris klientams rašė: „Tai dar labiau padidina riziką, kad Prancūzijos fiskalinės problemos liks neišspręstos ir kad ekonominė politika taps mažiau palanki augimui.“

 

„Prancūzijos ekonomika iš lenktynininkės virto pagrindine euro zonos atsiliekančia šalimi“, – pridūrė jis.

 

Nuo tada, kai Macronas 2024 m. viduryje paskelbė pirmalaikius parlamento rinkimus – politinę riziką, kuria siekta sustabdyti kraštutinių dešiniųjų Nacionalinio sambūrio partijos iškilimą, Prancūziją krečia fiskalinis ir politinis netikrumas.

 

Šis manevras atsigręžė prieš save ir sukėlė gilų parlamento susiskaldymą.

 

Nuo to laiko trys ministrai pirmininkai buvo nušalinti nuo pareigų, nesėkmingai bandant spręsti deficito problemą smarkiai mažinant išlaidas.

 

Macronas pareiškė, kad nerengs naujų parlamento rinkimų, tačiau analitikų teigimu, akivaizdus nesugebėjimas išlaikyti vyriausybės gali priversti jį skelbti balsavimą šiais metais arba 2026 m. pradžioje.

 

Macronas greičiausiai paskirs naują technokratinį ministrą pirmininką, kuris bandys prastumti kitų metų biudžetą. Kraštutiniu atveju Macronas pirmadienį galėtų paklausyti vis stiprėjančių opozicinių partijų raginimų atsistatydinti ir paankstinti 2027 m. balandžio mėn. numatytus prezidento rinkimus.

 

Naujausia krizė įsiplieskė praėjus mažiau nei 12 valandų po to, kai Lecornu... sudarė kabinetą, kuriame įvyko lemtingas posūkis: buvęs finansų ministras Bruno Le Maire buvo paskirtas gynybos ministru.

 

Ponas Le Maire, septynerius metus ėjęs finansų pareigas, buvo pašalintas iš vyriausybės, kai ponas Macronas paleido parlamentą. Respublikonai, centro dešinės partija, kurios paramos ponui Lecornu reikėjo, kaltino poną Le Maire dėl skolų kaupimo jam būnant finansų ministru ir buvo pasipiktinę, kad jis grįžo į kabineto pareigas.

 

Ponas Lecornu buvo naujausias ministras pirmininkas, bandęs teikti pirmenybę byrančių Prancūzijos finansų problemai spręsti. Tačiau kariaujančioms politinėms frakcijoms parlamente iš kairės, dešinės ir centro, visoms kovojant dėl ​​savo pozicijų, jis neturėjo aiškios daugumos, kad priimtų griežtesnį biudžetą, kuris galėjo nuraminti nervingus investuotojus.

 

Per pastarąjį mėnesį dviejose visoje šalyje vykusiose demonstracijose triukšmingi protestuotojai reikalavo, kad vyriausybė grąžintų mokesčius itin turtingiesiems, atšauktų neseniai padidintą oficialų pensinį amžių ir sustabdytų karinių išlaidų didėjimą. (Nebėra Ukrainos.)

 

Po daugelio metų per didelių vyriausybės išlaidų ir mažėjančių mokesčių įplaukų Prancūzijos biudžeto deficitas pasiekė... 168,6 milijardo eurų, apie 198 milijardus dolerių arba 5,8 procento jos ekonominės produkcijos, 2024 m. Šis deficitas yra didžiausias šalyje nuo Antrojo pasaulinio karo ir gerokai viršija Europos Sąjungos nustatytą 3 procentų ribą.

 

Prancūzijos skola rugsėjį viršijo 3,4 trilijono eurų – tai viena didžiausių naštų tarp euro zonos šalių. Šalies valstybės skolos reitingas buvo du kartus sumažintas po to, kai rugsėjo pradžioje E. Macronas paskyrė ministru pirmininku E. Lecornu, o viena didelė reitingų bendrovė perspėjo apie „padidėjusį vidaus politikos susiskaldymą ir poliarizaciją“.

 

Jei nieko nebus daroma, palūkanų mokėjimai taps didžiausiomis Prancūzijos biudžeto išlaidomis per ketverius metus.

 

Didžiausi Prancūzijos bankai, laikantys dideles Prancūzijos valstybės skolos sumas, pirmadienį buvo smarkiai sutriuškinti, o „BNP Paribas“, „Société Générale“ ir „Crédit Agricole“ akcijų vertė smarkiai sumažėjo. [1]

 

1. Fears of Economic Turmoil Deepen in France as Another Prime Minister Quits. Alderman, Liz.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Oct 6, 2025.

Why do Belarusian balloons paralyze the Lithuanian sky?


Because our government has fallen out not only with most of the world (China, India, other Southern countries), but also with our closest important neighbors. Now if the wind brings weather balloons, children's balloons or drones, or some sparrow, we close the communication, thousands of people suffer and suffer losses, and our government is afraid of everything and wants to make a trap out of mines for our children, although we have few of those children anyway.

 

Operational disruption: The events, which involved balloons flying over the capital, Vilnius, forced the airport to shut down temporarily. This caused delays and diversions for roughly 30 flights and affected around 6,000 passengers. Lithuania's relations with Belarus deteriorated significantly. It led to Lithuania recalling its ambassador and hosting Belarusian opposition leaders. Lithuania has increased its border security, which includes building a fence and closing several checkpoints with Belarus. This limits communication and increases the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation.

Kodėl Baltarusijos balionai paralyžiuoja Lietuvos dangų?


Nes mūsų valdžia susipyko su ne tik dauguma pasaulio (Kinija, Indija, kitos Pietų šalys), bet ir artimiausiais svarbiais kaimynais. Dabar jei vėjas atneša meteorologinius balionus, vaikiškus balionus ar dronus, ar kokį žvirblį, mes uždarome susisiekimą, tūkstančiai žmonių vargsta ir patiria nuostolius, o mūsų valdžia visko bijo ir nori mūsų vaikams padaryti spąstus iš minų, nors ir taip tų vaikų mažai turime.

 

Veiklos sutrikimai: Įvykiai, susiję su oro balionų skrydžiais virš sostinės Vilniaus, privertė laikinai uždaryti oro uostą. Dėl to vėlavo ir buvo nukreipta apie 30 skrydžių, o keleiviai nukentėjo (apie 6000 keleivių). Lietuvos santykiai su Baltarusija smarkiai pablogėjo. Dėl to Lietuva atšaukė savo ambasadorių ir priėmė Baltarusijos opozicijos lyderius. Lietuva sustiprino sienų apsaugą, įskaitant tvoros su Baltarusija statybą ir kelių kontrolės punktų uždarymą. Tai riboja bendravimą ir padidina nesusipratimų bei klaidingų skaičiavimų tikimybę. 

Merkel blames Baltics and Poland for Ukraine events


“Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has blamed Poland and the Baltics for events in Ukraine.

 

She made the remarks in an interview with Hungarian newspaper Partizan, which was quoted by the Daily Mail.

 

She blamed Poland and the Baltics for the break in diplomatic relations between Russia and the EU, which she said led to the conflict just months later.

 

Merkel said Poland’s refusal to support the Minsk agreements – two key international agreements between Russia and the EU – had emboldened Russian President Vladimir Putin to fight for Ukraine in 2022.

 

The former German chancellor said the first Minsk agreement brought peace between 2015 and 2021 and gave Ukraine time to gather strength and become a different country.

 

Merkel said it was only in 2021 that she felt Putin no longer took the Minsk agreement seriously.

 

“That’s why I wanted a new format where we could talk directly to Putin as the European Union,” she told Partizan.

 

“Some people were against it. It was primarily the Baltic states, but Poland was also against it,” Merkel added.

 

According to her, the four nations were afraid that they would not have a unified policy towards Russia.

 

“In any case, it didn’t happen. Then I left office, and then the events in Ukraine began,” she said.

 

Merkel served as German chancellor from November 2005 to December 2021.”

 


Dėl įvykių Ukrainoje Merkel apkaltino Baltijos šalis ir Lenkiją


“Buvusi Vokietijos kanclerė Angela Merkel dėl Rusijos invazijos į Ukrainą apkaltino Lenkiją ir Baltijos šalis.

 

Tai ji pasakė interviu vengrų leidiniui „Partizan“, kurį cituoja „Daily Mail“.

 

Ji kaltino Lenkiją ir Baltijos šalis dėl diplomatinių santykių tarp Rusijos ir ES nutraukimo. O tai, anot jos, lėmė konfliktą vos po kelių mėnesių.

 

A. Merkel teigė, kad Lenkijos atsisakymas remti Minsko susitarimus – du svarbius tarptautinius susitarimus tarp Rusijos ir ES – padrąsino Rusijos prezidentą Vladimirą Putiną kovoti už Ukrainą 2022 m.

 

Buvusi Vokietijos kanclerė tikino, kad pirmasis Minsko susitarimas atnešė ramybę 2015–2021 m. ir suteikė Ukrainai laiko surinkti jėgas ir tapti kita šalimi.

 

A. Merkel teigė, kad tik 2021 metais ji pajuto, jog V. Putinas nebevertina Minsko susitarimo rimtai.

 

„Štai kodėl norėjau naujo formato, pagal kurį galėtume tiesiogiai kalbėtis su Putinu, kaip Europos Sąjunga“, – „Partizan“ sakė ji.

 

„Kai kurie žmonės tam nepritarė. Tai pirmiausia buvo Baltijos šalys, bet Lenkija taip pat buvo prieš“, – pridūrė A. Merkel.

 

Anot jos, šios keturios tautos bijojo, kad neturės vieningos politikos Rusijos atžvilgiu.

 

„Bet kokiu atveju, tai neįvyko. Tada aš palikau postą, o tada prasidėjo Ukrainos įvykiai“, – tikino ji.

 

A. Merkel Vokietijos kanclerės pareigas ėjo nuo 2005 m. lapkričio iki 2021 m. gruodžio.”

 


AI Investors Face A Range of Risks

 


 

“The basic principle of venture capital is to put a dollar in each of 10 companies, accept that three will go to zero, one or two to $10 or more, and the rest kind of meh. The winner more than makes up for the losers, but you spread your money around in the hope of securing ten-baggers.

 

Investing in artificial intelligence increasingly has the same mindset -- but without the diversification. This leaves investors exposed to all the many risks as they chase one big bet: artificial general intelligence, an AI that can match or surpass humans. This isn't a chatbot, but a truly capable alternative to the human brain: Think Terminator, Hal, Blade Runner.

 

If what's known as AGI ever works, it would deliver massive societal change, as well as potentially huge productivity gains and, barring state seizure, profits on a literally science-fiction scale.

 

This is the better-than-ten-bagger bet that AI luminaries talk up as they set out plans for trillions of dollars to be sunk into data centers.

 

Along the way, there's "agentic AI" and other propositions that could still produce decent productivity gains and make lots of money if widely adopted. The problem: The entry cost is increasingly high because of the race to AGI, and even the prospects for take-up of the less exciting propositions remain uncertain.

 

Excluded from the VC world, ordinary investors are mostly invested in AI via funds that have a slice of their money in private companies such as OpenAI, or through Big Tech companies that are dedicating more of their cash piles to AI research and holdings in private AI firms.

 

Here are the risks:

 

It never works.

 

Clearly, if AGI proves impossible, those betting the farm-converted-into-a-data-center on it working will lose. Will it work? I have no idea. But there are good reasons to think that simply throwing more computing power at the current models won't do it, and every past AI boom has come with similar excitement about AGI.

 

AI pioneer Marvin Minsky told Life magazine that true AGI was three to eight years away -- in 1970. Less widely known is that the magazine canvassed skeptics who cautioned that AGI was more likely to take 15 years. It's always been the technology of the future, and it might stay that way.

 

It takes too long.

 

Maybe we do get AGI eventually. But how long will investors stay hopeful? The chips being bought today to fill the data centers will be redundant in four or five years, so need to generate significant revenue quickly.

 

It's highly unlikely they can be paid for with AGI, so they need either investors to keep on funding heavy losses, or customers to be willing to pay for other AI applications created along the way: video editing, fake digital friends, short online answers to replace search.

 

It costs too much.

 

Here we get to the problem of the other AI applications. Staff at OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, just sold shares at a valuation of $500 billion. It is on track to meet its forecast of $13 billion in sales this year, almost all from the chatbot, valuing it at 38 times revenue. That multiple is a little more than dot-com poster child Cisco Systems at the peak of the tech bubble in 2000.

 

Even if everything goes well, the high entry cost lowers the return prospects, barring AGI. Plus, investors have to continue to believe it will go right and keep funding losses until it does.

 

You pick a loser.

 

Back in the browser wars of the late 1990s, Netscape fought Microsoft's Internet Explorer for dominance of the web interface. Netscape had the better product in my view, but it didn't matter because the eventual winner was. . .neither of them.

 

Google, now Alphabet, came up with Chrome and dominates use. All the big tech companies are competing to develop AI, along with startups in Europe and China. If you could somehow invest in all of them, you could hope to get the VC-type returns, even if all but one go to zero. But the winner might be someone else entirely.

 

Investors have already repeatedly missed when trying to pick winners among smaller AI stocks.

 

Super Micro Computer shares are worth a bit more than one-third of last year's peak after a wild run-up. SoundHound AI shares lost three-quarters of their value this spring after rising more than 12-fold in a year, before a rebound. C3.AI shares are worth less than half their 2023 high, and have lost almost 90% of where they briefly traded at after the 2020 IPO.

 

Competition rises.

 

Investors are betting that AI is a winner-takes-most market with fat profit margins.

 

It could be that usage speeds design improvements, creating a network effect where more customers mean the product gets better, so attracts more customers. Or it could be, as today, that there are a ton of different chatbot companies offering very similar products -- and margins are driven down both by competition and by the need to keep up heavy spending on research.

 

It's too easy.

 

AI stocks wobbled earlier this year when China's DeepSeek AI released a chatbot that was easier to train.

 

Academics in China just released a paper on their "SpikingBrain" model that claims a new approach allows powerful AI development on low-cost microchips.

 

If someone comes up with a way to provide cheap AI, it might speed up the path to AGI -- but it will hurt chip maker Nvidia and companies that filled data centers with its expensive, high-powered chips.

 

The economy suffers.

 

The scale of data-center expansion is stretching the ability of the U.S. to provide enough electricity, backup generators and other equipment, as it is now measured most effectively in percentages of GDP. The spending helps spread money from AI investment more broadly across the economy. But it also makes it harder for old industries that have to compete for power and equipment with companies flush with the gusher of AI cash.

 

With the U.S. operating at or close to full capacity, this means either inflation or a reallocation of resources -- both painful options.

 

If you think an AGI would generate multitrillion-dollar profits, even a tiny chance that it happens is worth a lot. Investors merely hoping for profits from intermediate AI products should be bothered about financing a sector increasingly priced for AGI.” [1]

 

1. Streetwise: AI Investors Face A Range of Risks. Mackintosh, James.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 06 Oct 2025: B1.