Pessimistic for the West:
Western military industry will stop.(https://radar.rp.pl/przemysl-obronny/art43154471-chiny-blokuja-zachodnia-zbrojeniowke)
So, the preparation for the Taiwan war will stop.
The flow of Western military hardware to Israel will stop. Arabs will start thinking about it.
The flow of Western military hardware to Mr. Zelensky in Ukraine will stop.
The money saved will be spent on butter in the West (from guns and butter story). The life in Western countries will become great again.
Mr. Trump will get the Nobel peace prize.
It could be even worse. Research suggests that in a high-escalation scenario, China could disrupt Western economies by restricting exports of critical goods like rare earths, pharmaceuticals, and clean energy inputs. This could severely impact Western manufacturing and technology sectors.
Optimistic for the West:
The Chinese will so much want to see the celebrity (Mr. Trump) again, as described in detail below, they will stop all their sanctions. The same reports note that China, keeping sanctions, would also face steep costs, including risks to tens of millions of jobs that depend on foreign demand. Furthermore, China's main financial project to counter sanctions—building renminbi-based transaction networks—is still no full replacement for the dominant dollar-based system.
“President Trump said he would hit China with a 100% additional tariff and impose new export controls on critical software products after Beijing placed restrictions on the export of rare-earth minerals, hours after his threats of retaliation sent the S&P 500 to its worst day since April.
The new measures would take effect Nov. 1, Trump said in a Truth Social post. The export controls would affect "any and all critical software," he wrote. The measures could take effect even sooner, he said, "depending on any further actions or changes taken by China."
"It is impossible to believe that China would have taken such an action, but they have, and the rest is History," Trump wrote.
After months of trade talks with China, U.S. officials were cautiously optimistic the two sides had made progress. But China's announcement about the new controls Thursday elicited shock and anger within the White House.
Some members of the administration want to effectively restart trade talks from zero with Beijing, according to people familiar with the thinking, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who have led the talks, are particularly incensed.
The renewed conflict shows that despite months of a tariff truce and repeated meetings between Chinese officials and Trump's team, relations between the world's two largest economies remain volatile and can erupt into crisis with little warning.
Still, a critical window for negotiation remains open in the escalating dispute. There is a month between Trump's Nov. 1 start date for tariffs and Dec. 1, the date Beijing set for new controls on rare-earth exports. The staggered deadlines provide a potential off-ramp for both sides to de-escalate tensions before the punitive measures are enacted.
Trump appeared to leave room for Beijing to step back from its new export controls, saying Friday evening that he had purposely set the imposition date for tariffs a few weeks in the future.
"That's why I made it November 1, we'll see what happens," Trump said.
Earlier Friday, Trump threatened to cancel an expected summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, blaming Beijing's new rare-earth measures.
Though Trump later suggested he would still be open to a meeting, the threat surprised some Beijing officials, who didn't anticipate the action would place the summit at risk. While Beijing remains confident, China analysts say, the unintended threat to the summit could give the Chinese leadership a reason to delay or walk back the measures.
U.S. stocks fell sharply on Trump's first threat Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq losing more than 3.5%. The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, in its biggest one-day decline since April 10, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly 900 points. Stocks had set record after record in recent weeks with investors betting that the worst of the trade war was over.
China's decision to strengthen its export controls was part of a calculated action to demonstrate Beijing's leverage over the U.S. economy and force Trump to the negotiating table with a weaker hand, The Wall Street Journal reported this past week. Beijing officials see Trump as eager to make a deal, but the Chinese have so far been unable to get the U.S. to agree to the full removal of tariffs and export controls.
The U.S. had agreed in August to place another 90-day pause on the 145% tariffs but the deadline for that agreement is mid-November, shortly after the U.S. Supreme Court will hear a case about the legality of many of Trump's levies. The U.S. and China have often celebrated trade talks, regularly noting progress between both sides, but a long-term deal has proved elusive.
Some administration officials have been quietly mulling countermeasures against China for months to deploy if relations between the two economies went sour, said a person familiar with the plans. Those include measures to protect U.S. infrastructure from Chinese incursion and further limit the ability of Chinese companies to invest in the U.S.
After Thursday's announcement, U.S. officials are also mulling the use of sanctions and additional export controls as a way to try to block China's access to U.S. markets.
The flare-up over export controls is a repeat of a dispute that Washington and Beijing supposedly resolved months ago. Earlier this year, Beijing tightened export controls on the minerals, causing alarm among U.S. industries from automotive to defense. Trump's team responded with export controls of their own on components upon which China relies on the U.S.
Vice Premier He Lifeng believed an informal "freeze" on new export controls had been agreed upon following recent talks in Madrid, according to people familiar with the discussions. But that understanding was shattered when the U.S. introduced new controls on foreign-owned companies.
Although the U.S. government provided Beijing with advance notice of the rule, and the Chinese initially seemed to acquiesce, a decision was made by Xi himself to hit back -- and hit back harder, the people said.
The Chinese action could have far-reaching consequences for the U.S. economy. Earlier this year, U.S. automakers warned they would have to cease production in many factories if they didn't receive rare-earth magnets from China. They said stoppages could be as widespread as during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Though Beijing views its actions as a justified response, the retaliation may have backfired. "I don't think they anticipated that the summit would be in jeopardy," said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank.” [1]
1. Trump to Impose New China Levy --- President retaliates against rare-earth restrictions, threatens to cancel Xi meeting. Bade, Gavin; Wei, Lingling; Schwartz, Brian. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 11 Oct 2025: A1.
Komentarų nėra:
Rašyti komentarą