"Thanks to the sharp increase in production, Russia can
now produce about 170 Geran-type drones per day, i.e. more than 5,000 per
month. About half of them are decoys without explosive charges, called Gerbera,
designed to enhance the "saturation effect."
In three years, the essentially primitive Geran product has
evolved significantly. The Ukrainian military announced in late June that it
had taken delivery of a model that was equipped with an artificial
intelligence-supported thermal targeting system and a new navigation system
that improves targeting and resistance to interference.
“The Most Economical Weapon”
The strike drone can now fly at higher altitudes, making it
harder to intercept, and can carry a payload of about 90 kg, twice as much as
before. In February, Ukrainian military intelligence reported the emergence of
a new version of the Geran-3, a jet-powered variant that can reach speeds of up
to 600 km/h, three times faster than its predecessors. These constant
improvements have led to new tactics—overlapping trajectories, scattered
salvos, dives, and massed strikes on a limited area—that are seriously testing
Ukraine’s air defenses. The “penetration coefficient,” the proportion of drones
that evade Ukrainian air defenses, has increased from less than 10 percent to
nearly 20 percent, according to CSIS researcher Benjamin Jensen.
He emphasizes that "this result is explained not by the
failure of Ukraine's defense systems, but by Russia's tactical
adaptation," which "relies on quantity, persistence and psychological
pressure to achieve what accuracy alone cannot ensure." Shooting down such
a large number of equipment, the cost of which is estimated at 20-80 thousand
US dollars per unit, using anti-aircraft missile systems, such as the Patriot
PAC-3, which cost more than 3 million dollars, hardly makes sense, the media
writes. Especially since the target could be the Gerbera, which costs 10 times
less."
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