Worker Productivity Yet to Feel AI Boost

“Investment in artificial intelligence is helping the U.S. economy grow. But the tools themselves aren't substantially boosting the productivity of American workers in the way AI enthusiasts hope they will -- at least not yet.

 

Instead, the main way that AI has boosted growth so far has been more pedestrian: through a surge in investment, and a stock-market rally that has spurred some Americans to spend more freely.

 

Productivity is roughly defined as the amount the average worker can produce in any given hour.

 

AI could boost it in one of two ways. It could, in the best-case scenario, augment workers' abilities so they can accomplish more in their day.

 

Mundane and time-consuming tasks could be handled by AI, allowing humans to focus on higher-level work and reach their goals faster.

 

It could also automate some jobs away, a not-so-great outcome for human workers, but one that would raise efficiency and productivity of the remaining workers.

 

In theory, the displaced workers would shift into fields where their skills could be put to better use.

 

So far, Wall Street economists have been somewhat divided on whether AI might be currently lifting productivity, and to what extent.

 

Goldman Sachs economists recently found that productivity among workers at technology companies has improved in recent years, and think that is partially because of AI.

 

They calculated that tech and related areas, such as scientific research, have had stronger productivity growth in the past five years relative to before the pandemic, and think that AI has partly contributed to that.

 

On the other hand, in research conducted earlier this year, JPMorgan Chase economists didn't find a strong link between AI use and industry productivity. More recently, they found that outside of tech industries, there was no apparent relationship between AI use and slower employment growth.

 

"The thing about AI is it is such amazing technology, so it feels like the economic impacts should match the emotional impacts," said Yale Budget Lab executive director Martha Gimbel. "And I don't think we're quite there."

 

In a recent analysis of Labor Department data, Gimbel and her colleagues found that while there is evidence that some early-career workers have been displaced by AI since OpenAI introduced ChatGPT in November 2022, the effect is small.

 

For example, if AI were having a big effect, one might expect the mix of jobs people do to change significantly, with more workers going into areas researchers have identified as either shielded from AI, such as home health aides, or that could be augmented by AI, such as computer-systems management.

 

The Budget Lab analysis found that in the three months ended November 2022, the share of U.S. workers in occupations that are highly exposed to ChatGPT was around 18.2%. In the three months ended in August of this year, that share was close to unchanged, at 18.3%.

 

This doesn't mean AI isn't having any effect at all on productivity, but instead that it might be affecting only segments of the workforce.

 

The Budget Lab research finds the occupational mix for recent college graduates is changing faster than it did for their older counterparts. That could be a sign AI is disrupting young workers' job prospects.” [1]

 

1. U.S. News: Worker Productivity Yet to Feel AI Boost. Lahart, Justin.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 14 Oct 2025: A2.