Did the US Miscalculate? Iran Grows Stronger

“Although severely weakened by US-Israeli airstrikes, Iran will emerge from this conflict strengthened. It has, in fact, acquired a tool for blackmail—one it had previously never dared to employ.

 

Whence America’s anxious appeals to allies to assume responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz? Is it merely because America’s strategy has reached a dead end and White House now faces opposition from an ever-growing segment of American public opinion? That is likely the case, yet one might suspect America has taken another factor into account as well: it has realized that, as a result of a poorly executed operation, it has only served to bolster the very regime it sought to bring down.

 

The Iranian Regime Will Be Strengthened

 

This is not merely a matter of the Revolutionary Guards having assumed full control over a besieged Iran—a development whose dire consequences the Iranian people will endure for years to come, as I have noted in *Rzeczpospolita* on numerous occasions.

 

Rather, it concerns something—from the perspective of the outside world—of even greater significance: the fact that this conflict has ultimately convinced the Iranian authorities that it is indeed feasible—that it is *actually possible*—to close the Strait of Hormuz and, in doing so, exert political control over the entire region.

 

In this context, it is crucial to look back at recent history: ever since the Islamic Revolution, the Iranian authorities have repeatedly threatened to block this vital global shipping lane; yet, never have they actually gone so far as to close the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, whenever attempts were made to close it, they truly "got their hands slapped"—as happened in 1988, when, after the U.S. frigate USS *Samuel B. Roberts* struck an Iranian mine, U.S. armed forces decimated the Iranian fleet. Following that incident, Tehran’s threats to close the strait surfaced repeatedly, yet—likely due to fears of intervention—they were never actually carried out. The war instigated by Benjamin Netanyahu and America has diametrically altered this situation. Iran has, in fact, closed the Strait of Hormuz and redefined the region's strategic landscape, demonstrating its capacity to seize the world by the throat.

 

Effective control of the Strait of Hormuz requires no nuclear-tipped missiles, but rather aerial and maritime drones, artillery, and a handful of mines.

 

Furthermore, these facts cannot be undone; the Iranian authorities have realized just how potent a weapon they hold in their hands—and they will now wield it without restraint.

 

A Potent Weapon in Iran’s Hands

 

Control over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is set to become an instrument of Iranian blackmail and a guarantee of national security—at least until the regime of the Islamic Republic collapses. In search of an analogy, one might look to the North Korean regime, for which the possession of nuclear weapons serves as a similar instrument of blackmail and a guarantee of security. Yet, in Tehran’s case, the matter is far simpler. Effective control of the Strait of Hormuz requires no nuclear-tipped missiles, but rather aerial and maritime drones, artillery, and a handful of mines. The strait is narrow enough that an attack on just a few tankers within its constricted section—a 33-kilometer stretch featuring shipping lanes only 3 kilometers wide—would trigger insurmountable navigational chaos for all maritime traffic.

 

This issue must also be viewed from the perspective of the Western-allied Gulf states, which are entirely dependent on maritime transport. Most of them rely on the sea not only to export their natural resources but also to import their supplies. A blockade of the strait would result in their total paralysis and a radical shift in their development prospects. The notion that they could be saved by an operation modeled on the "Berlin Airlift" of 1948–49 is a complete delusion. Attempting to supply millions of people across Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar by air over an extended period would deplete their resources within a matter of months.

 

Has this realization dawned on the White House yet? Most likely. The White House certainly does not lack competent analysts. Yet, even if this is the case, White House will not say so out loud. To do so would require it to admit defeat. Consequently, he continues to repeat its habitual tropes: "We hold all the cards. Iran holds none." Even though, in reality, the exact opposite is true.”