China Takes Leap in New Race to Moon --- Unmanned mission is step in contest with U.S. to build permanent outposts

"There is a new space race, this time between the U.S. and China. On Tuesday, China took an important step forward.

A Chinese spacecraft returned carrying the first-ever rock samples from the far side of the moon. A scientific breakthrough in itself, the success also advanced China's plan to put astronauts on the moon by 2030 and build a lunar base by 2035.

That is worrying American space officials and lawmakers. Both nations seek to build permanent outposts on the moon's most strategic location, the lunar south pole. And as they gear up, it is looking likely that tensions in orbit will mirror those on Earth.

Some U.S. officials fear China plans a land grab. Chinese officials suspect the same of the Americans and are teaming up with Russia and other friendly nations for its south-pole outpost.

The outlines of a rivalry in which superpowers and their allies jockey to exploit the moon's strategic importance are already emerging. Tuesday's success with the Chang'e 6 mission shows that, by one measure, China leads.

The recent scoreboard is "4 to 0.5," said Simone Dell'Agnello, an Italian researcher who collaborated with Chang'e 6. China's lunar program has soft-landed on the moon four times since 2013, the latest mission scooping up rocks near the south pole. 

The U.S. this year sought to end a decadeslong moon-landing hiatus, with two American companies launching missions under contracts from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. 

One lander tipped over after touchdown. The other didn't try to land because of technical problems.

All this is piling pressure on the world's most storied space agency. At least two more private missions with NASA funding are slated to try to get to the moon this year. Through its Artemis exploration program, the agency plans in the coming years to conduct multiple landings, develop a logistics station in lunar orbit and eventually build permanent camps on the moon. But Artemis, relying on a complex mix of government workers and private contractors, has faced repeated delays and cost overruns.

An uncrewed test mission, Artemis I, went around the moon in 2022. This year, NASA pushed back the next two flights, including Artemis III, meant to be humanity's first crewed landing on the lunar surface since Apollo 17, in 1972. NASA is collaborating with contractors, including Elon Musk's SpaceX, which is developing a lunar lander for Artemis.

Some space experts say Artemis III's new target date of 2026 is still too optimistic. NASA has been considering altering the plan so as not to include landing astronauts on the moon, people familiar with the matter said.

Bill Nelson, NASA's administrator, said in an interview that landing astronauts in 2026 is indeed possible, pointing to SpaceX's work advancing the vehicle it will use for that operation.

The idea that the U.S. was in a race with China was amplified in 2017 when Ye Peijian of the state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences compared the moon and Mars to disputed Pacific territories claimed by China -- but also Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. 

Then in 2021, China and Russia agreed to build a research base on the lunar south pole.

"My concern is if China got there first and suddenly said, 'OK, this is our territory. You stay out,'" NASA's Nelson told a congressional hearing in April. There may be only a few spots in the lunar south-pole region with the resources needed for human outposts, he said.

China's foreign ministry has said it is the U.S., not China, that threatens peace in outer space.

A decades-old treaty signed by more than 100 countries, including the U.S. and China, generally precludes sovereign claims on the moon. But it doesn't spell out what would happen if two countries tried to build a lunar base on the same spot. Michelle Hanlon, executive director of the University of Mississippi's Center for Air and Space Law, said whoever builds a base could argue that under the treaty it is entitled to a 100-kilometer perimeter to protect its equipment.

"Whichever country leads the exploration of space, whether it is back to the moon or on to Mars, you basically get to set the rules of the road for how we operate," Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), chairman of the House Science Committee, said in an interview.

The U.S. in 2020 started recruiting countries to sign the Artemis Accords, a newer framework for peaceful space exploration. More than 40 have signed. China hasn't, instead recruiting 10 countries, including Russia, Pakistan and South Africa, as partners in its south-pole base. China's foreign ministry, in response to questions from The Wall Street Journal, said "each side has different views on whether the Artemis Accords align with existing outer-space laws."

For all its accomplishments, China's space program has faced its own struggles. Its Long March 5 rockets, which launched the rock-sample mission, were delayed for years, and China trails the U.S. in several aspects. It hasn't yet developed powerful reusable rockets, as the U.S. has.

Compared with equatorial regions where the Apollo missions went, the lunar south pole is tougher to land on because of rougher terrain and poorer lighting. 

But the U.S. and China think it is worth the effort because of the resources, especially water ice, a potential source of water and oxygen for astronauts and hydrogen for rocket fuel.

And researchers have found evidence of what may be metal deposits, which they envision could be mined to build rockets on the moon. Some NASA officials and researchers believe it is more cost-effective to launch missions to Mars from the moon.

In China, state media provided enthusiastic updates on the Chang'e 6 mission. Before it took off, the probe drew the Chinese character for the country's name in the lunar soil. The picture of the scrawling went viral on Chinese social media." [1]

Flights from the Moon are much more economical because the Moon is much smaller than the Earth, so the gravitational pull of the Moon is less, and it costs less fuel to launch the same payloads into orbit from the Moon. Therefore, the Moon becomes a gateway to the further conquest of space. No wonder everyone is so nervous here.

1. World News: China Takes Leap in New Race to Moon --- Unmanned mission is step in contest with U.S. to build permanent outposts. Woo, Stu; Leong, Clarence; Maidenberg, Micah.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 26 June 2024: A.7.

JAV balansuoja ant lyno dėl sankcijų už naftą

"Bideno administracija nori išlaikyti stabilias dujų kainas prieš rinkimus, skatindama naftą tekėti į pasaulines rinkas. Pastangos susidūrė su dar vienu prioritetu: būti griežtiems priešų Rusijos, Irano ir Venesuelos atvejais.

 

 Anot diplomatų, buvusių vyriausybės pareigūnų ir energetikos pramonės atstovų, informuotų dabartinių pareigūnų, ši politika paskatino švelnesnes, nei tikėtasi, sankcijas pagrindiniams naftos gamintojams.

 

 Antradienį buvo pasiektas toks atvejis, kai JAV įvedė naujas sankcijas Iranui. Analitikai teigia, kad šios priemonės daro įtaką daliai šalies naftos eksporto ir, greičiausiai, nesukels pasaulinių rinkų.

 

 Administracijos pareigūnai teigė, kad veiksmai yra gerai subalansuoti, siekiant išlaikyti žemas kainas, tačiau į Rusijos ir Irano naftos eksporto mašinas įmetamas smėlis, o tai reiškia, kad jie uždirba mažiau iš kiekvieno parduodamo naftos barelio.

 

 „Prezidentas norėjo padaryti viską, ką galėjo, kad Amerikos vartotojai gautų mažiausią kainą prie siurblio, nes tai turi įtakos šeimų kasdieniam gyvenimui“, – sakė aukšto rango administracijos pareigūnas.

 

 Nors įtampa tarp Irano ir JAV išaugo nuo spalio 7 d. Teherano remiamo Hamas atakų prieš Izraelį, kasdienis eksportas iš Irano šiemet nuo vasario viršijo 1,5 mln. barelių per dieną, gerokai daugiau, nei Bideno pirmininkavimo pradžioje.  Didžiąją dalį tos naftos mažos Kinijos naftos perdirbimo įmonės perka su nuolaida.

 

 JAV ir jų sąjungininkės buvo „labai labai atsargios, kad nenueitų per toli ir nepakenktų Vakarų ekonomikų gebėjimui veikti“, kai kalbama apie sankcijas, sakė Johnas Smithas, Morrison Foerster partneris ir buvęs JAV iždo departamento vadovas Užsienio turto kontrolės biure.

 

 JAV diplomatai ir energetikos pareigūnai dešimtmečius dirbo visame pasaulyje, kad išlaikytų naftos tekėjimą, dažnai įtraukdami nepatogius aljansus ir pagerinimus.

 

 Kai birželio 12 d. Iždo departamentas Maskvai smogė sankcijų banga dėl Ukrainos konflikto, taikėsi į bankus, tačiau šalies naftos pramonė iš esmės liko nepaliesta.

 

 Pasak JAV diplomatų ir kai kurių energetikos pramonės atstovų, kai kurie JAV iždo departamento darbuotojai yra nusivylę dėl to, kad nesiima veiksmų prieš naftos prekybos tinklus, kurie plukdo Rusijos ir Irano naftą, įskaitant tą, kurį pareigūnai šiuo metu tiria.

 

 Tinklą valdo mažai žinomas prekybininkas iš Azerbaidžano, kuris tapo pagrindiniu Rusijos „Rosneft Oil“ tarpininku, pranešė „The Wall Street Journal“.

 

 Bideno administracijos politikos šalininkai teigė, kad veiksmai yra puikiai subalansuoti.

 

 „Mūsų du tikslai – sumažinti Amerikos žmonių išlaidas ir Kremliaus pelną – yra labai suderinti vienas su kitu“, – sakė Iždo pareigūnas.

 

 Kai Iždas įvedė sankcijas Rusijos valstybinio tanklaivių savininkui „Sovcomflot“, jis taip pat išdavė licencijas, pagal kurias buvo atleistas visas bendrovės laivynas, išskyrus 14, o duomenų teikėjo Kpler skaičiavimais, iš viso yra 91 laivas. Pramonės atstovai teigė, kad išimčių licencijos buvo žalia šviesa naftos prekybininkams užsiimti verslu su šiais laivais, taip sumažinant riziką, kad ateityje jiems bus taikomos sankcijos.

 

 Nacionalinė ekonomikos taryba, vadovaujama Laelio Brainardo, ir kiti administracijos nariai nerimauja, kad platesnės priemonės sukels logistikos problemų naftos rinkoje ir padidins infliaciją, sakė su šiuo klausimu susipažinę žmonės. Analitikai teigė, kad didėjanti naftos gavyba iš šalių, kurioms taikomos sankcijos, yra viena iš priežasčių, kodėl žaliavinės žaliavos kainos nukrito nuo aukščiausių šių metų aukštumų.

 

 Kitas užsienio ir energetikos politikos susidūrimo pavyzdys šių metų pradžioje Vašingtonas paprašė Ukrainos nustoti atakuoti kai kurias Rusijos naftos perdirbimo gamyklas bepiločiais orlaiviais, kai žala sukrėtė rinkas.

 

 Pasak JAV energetikos administracijos, vidutinė galono benzino kaina anksčiau šią savaitę buvo 3,44 dolerių, maždaug tokio paties lygio kaip ir prieš metus, bet gerokai aukštesnė, nei prieš ketverius metus.

 

 Antradienį paskelbtos su Iranu susietos sankcijos taikomos Jungtinių Arabų Emyratų ir Honkongo įmonėms, kurios palengvina mokėjimus už Irano žaliavą. Tikimasi, kad jos neturės apčiuopiamo poveikio naftos rinkoms, sakė Homayounas Falakshahi, Kpler naftos analitikas.

 

 „Tai bus ribota ir laikina“, - sakė jis.

 

 Venesuelos atveju JAV pernai atšaukė sankcijas su sąlyga, kad bus surengti sąžiningi demokratiniai rinkimai. Išnaudoti šalies atsargas staiga vėl atsirado galimybė Vakarų naftos gamintojams. „Kpler“ duomenimis, šiais metais šalies žalios žaliavos eksportas išaugo 5 proc.

 

 Vėliau JAV nepratęsė bendros licencijos įmonėms veikti Venesueloje po to, kai šalies aukščiausiasis teismas sausio mėnesį patvirtino draudimą kandidatuoti opozicijos lyderiui.

 

 Tačiau pastarosiomis savaitėmis pareigūnai kreipėsi į stambius prekybininkus šiomis prekėmis, kad prašytų,  pasak administracijos pareigūnų ir pagrindinių prekių prekybos namų vadovų, specialių licencijų gabenti Venesuelos naftą ir patvirtintų daug individualių prašymų.

 

 „Niekas negąsdina Amerikos prezidento labiau, nei benzino siurblio kainų šuolis“, – sakė Bobas McNally, konsultacinės įmonės „Rapidan Energy Group“ prezidentas ir buvęs Baltųjų rūmų politikos pareigūnas, vadovaujamas George'o W. Busho. „Jis labai stengsis to išvengti, ypač rinkimų metais.“ [1]

 

Jei gyveni bendros pasaulio rinkos stikliniame name, tai nepradėk mėtyti akmenis. Bidenas tai supranta. Vokietijos Scholzas ir Prancūzijos Macronas - ne, jie stačia galva nėrė į visokias jiems kenksmingas sankcijas. Dabar jiems nesiseka išlaikyti valdžią. Vargšeliai. Reikėjo paklausti motinėlę Merkel, kaip valdoma didelė šalis.

 

1. U.S. Walks Tightrope Over Sanctioning Oil. Hirtenstein, Anna; Wallace, Joe; Talley, Ian; Paris,Costas.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 26 June 2024: A.1.

U.S. Walks Tightrope Over Sanctioning Oil

"The Biden administration wants to keep gas prices stable ahead of the election by encouraging oil to flow into global markets. The effort has run square into another priority: being tough on adversaries Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

The policy has led to softer-than-expected sanctions on major oil producers, according to diplomats, former government officials, and energy-industry players briefed by current officials.

A case in point arrived on Tuesday, when the U.S. levied fresh sanctions against Iran. The measures affect a fraction of the country's oil exports and are unlikely to gum up global markets, analysts said.

Administration officials said the moves are finely balanced to keep prices low, but throw sand in the gears of Russia and Iran's oil export machines, meaning they earn less from each barrel of oil they sell.

"The president has wanted to do everything that he could to make sure that American consumers have the lowest price possible at the pump, as it affects families' daily lives," a senior administration official said.

Though tensions between Iran and the U.S. have ratcheted up since the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel by Tehran-backed Hamas, daily exports from Iran surpassed 1.5 million barrels a day this year starting in February, substantially more than at the start of the Biden presidency. Most of that oil is bought by small Chinese refineries at discounted prices.

The U.S. and its allies have been "very, very careful not to go too far and damage the ability of Western economies to function," when it comes to sanctions, said John Smith, partner at Morrison Foerster and former head of the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control.

U.S. diplomats and energy officials have for decades worked around the globe to keep oil flowing, often involving uncomfortable alliances and accommodations.

When the Treasury department hit Moscow with a wave of sanctions on June 12 over the Ukraine conflict, it targeted banks, but left the country's oil industry largely untouched.

There is frustration among some staffers in the U.S. Treasury Department over the lack of action against oil-trading networks that ferry Russian and Iranian oil, including one that officials are currently investigating, according to U.S. diplomats and some of the energy-industry players briefed by current officials.

The network is operated by a little-known trader from Azerbaijan who emerged as the premier middleman for Russia's Rosneft Oil, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Supporters of the policy within the Biden administration said the moves are finely balanced.

"Our two goals, which are lowering costs for the American people and lowering profits for the Kremlin, are very much aligned with each other," a Treasury official said.

When Treasury imposed sanctions on Russia's state tanker owner, Sovcomflot, it also issued licenses exempting all but 14 of the company's fleet, which data provider Kpler estimates totals 91 ships. Industry players said the exemption licenses were a green light to oil traders to do business with those ships, minimizing the risk that they would be targeted by future sanctions.

The National Economic Council, led by Lael Brainard, and others within the administration worried that broader measures would lead to logistical problems in the oil market and boost inflation, people familiar with the matter said. Rising oil output from sanctioned countries is one reason crude prices have fallen from their highs earlier this year, analysts said.

In another example of the collision of foreign and energy policies, earlier this year, Washington asked Ukraine to stop attacking some Russian refineries with drones after the damage rattled markets.

The average price of a gallon of gasoline was $3.44 earlier this week, around the same level as a year ago, but substantially higher than four years ago, according to the U.S. Energy Administration.

The Iranian sanctions announced Tuesday target companies in the United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong that facilitate payments for Iranian crude. They aren't expected to have a tangible impact on oil markets, said Homayoun Falakshahi, an oil analyst at Kpler.

"It will be limited and temporary," he said."It's a question of forming new shell companies and rearranging the supply chain."

In the case of Venezuela, the U.S. rolled back sanctions last year on the condition of fair democratic elections. Tapping the country's reserves was suddenly a possibility again for Western oil producers. The country's crude exports have risen 5% so far this year, according to Kpler data.

The U.S. later didn't renew a general license for companies to operate in Venezuela after the country's highest court in January upheld a ban on the candidacy of an opposition leader.

Yet in recent weeks, officials have approached large commodity traders to apply for special licenses to ship Venezuelan oil and approved individual applications, according to administration officials and executives at major commodity trading houses.

"Nothing terrifies an American president more than a gasoline pump price spike," said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and former White House policy official under George W. Bush. "They will go to great lengths to prevent this, especially in an election year."" [1]

If you live in a glass house of the global common market, then don't start throwing stones. Biden understands this. Germany's Scholz and France's Macron - no, they dived headlong into all kinds of sanctions that were harmful to them. Now they are failing to hold on to power. Poor things. Mother Merkel should have been asked how a large country is governed properly.

 

1. U.S. Walks Tightrope Over Sanctioning Oil. Hirtenstein, Anna; Wallace, Joe; Talley, Ian; Paris,Costas.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 26 June 2024: A.1.

Trumpas išklausė naują planą užbaigti Ukrainos konfliktą

 "Donaldui Trumpui buvo pristatytas planas užbaigti konfliktą Ukrainoje, jei jis lapkritį bus išrinktas į Baltuosius rūmus.

Naujienų agentūra „Reuters“ praneša, kad du pagrindiniai numanomo respublikonų kandidato patarėjai pateikė planą, pagal kurį Kijevui pranešama, kad jis gaus daugiau JAV karinės pagalbos, jei pradės taikos derybas.

Tuo pat metu JAV įspėtų Maskvą, kad atsisakymas derėtis padidins Vašingtono paramą Ukrainai, teigia išėjęs generolas leitenantas Keithas Kelloggas.

Leitenantas K. Kelloggas ir Fredas Fleitzlas, kurie abu buvo D. Trumpo Nacionalinio saugumo tarybos štabo vadovai, kai jis buvo prezidentas, ir sugalvojo šį planą, sakė, kad paliaubos bus grindžiamos taikos derybų metu vyraujančiomis kovos linijomis.

F. Fleitzlas sakė, kad D. Trumpas demonstravo teigiamą požiūrį į šį planą.

„Neteigiu, kad jis su tuo sutiko ar sutiko su kiekvienu jo žodžiu, bet mums buvo malonu sulaukti atsiliepimų“, – sakė jis.

Kremlius teigė, kad bet koks būsimos D. Trumpo administracijos taikos planas turėtų atspindėti mūšio lauko „tikrovę“, tačiau Vladimiras Putinas buvo atviras deryboms.

„Bet kurio plano vertė slypi niuansuose ir atsižvelgime į tikrąją padėtį vietoje“, – sakė Kremliaus atstovas Dmitrijus Peskovas."