You have to avoid the "3Cs": closed spaces, crowded places and close-contact settings

" Japan has had a milder epidemic than most countries, in part because health-care officials understood the disease better.

WHEN THE Diamond Princess, a cruise ship suffering from an outbreak of covid-19, arrived in Japan in February, it seemed like a stroke of bad luck. A small floating petri dish threatened to turn the Japanese archipelago into a big one. In retrospect, however, the early exposure taught the authorities lessons that have helped make Japan's epidemic the mildest among the world's big economies, despite a recent surge in infections. In total 2,487 people have died of the coronavirus in Japan, just over half the number in China and fewer people than on a single day in America several times over the past week. Japan has suffered just 18 deaths per million people, a higher rate than in China, but by far the lowest in the G7, a club of big, industrialised democracies. (Germany comes in second, at 239.) Most strikingly, Japan has achieved this success without strict lockdowns or mass testing--the main weapons in the battle against covid-19 elsewhere.

"From the beginning we did not aim at containment," says Oshitani Hitoshi, a virologist who sits on an expert panel advising the government. That would require identifying all possible cases, which is not feasible in a country of Japan's size when the majority of infections produce mild or no symptoms, argues Mr Oshitani: "Even if you test everyone once per week, you'll still miss some." Japan performs the fewest tests in the G7: an average of 270 a day for every million people, compared with 4,000 or so in America and Britain (see chart on next page).

Instead, the government tried to apply the lessons of the Diamond Princess. After trained quarantine officers and nurses were infected aboard the ship, despite following protocols for viruses that spread through droplets, Mr Oshitani's team concluded that the virus spread through the air. As early as March, Japanese officials began warning citizens to avoid the san-mitsu or "3Cs": closed spaces, crowded places and close-contact settings. The phrase was blasted across traditional and social media. Surveys conducted in the spring found that a big majority were avoiding 3C settings. The publishing house Jiyukokuminsha recently declared it "buzzword of the year" for 2020.

The Diamond Princess also inspired an early focus on clusters. The government set up a cluster-busting taskforce in March.

These insights allowed the authorities to make granular distinctions about risks, opting for targeted restrictions rather than swinging between the extremes of strict lockdowns and free-for-all openings. Nishimura Yasutoshi, the minister overseeing the government's response to covid-19, carries a device that monitors carbon dioxide to measure the quality of ventilation during his meetings. (The room where he and your correspondent meet registers 506 parts per million, safely below the threshold of 1000 ppm that indicates poor air flow. The interview takes place across a large table, behind plastic shields and with face masks on.)" [1]

Can you imagine what it would be like if Veryga, the Lithuanian minister who had overseen the Government's reaction to covid-19 so far, wore a device that monitors carbon dioxide during its meetings to measure the quality of ventilation? Veryga would also have understood what we need to beware of, our results in the fight against coronavirus would not be worse than the Japanese, so the Lithuanian Peasant Party would be re-elected for another term. What could one minister do if he would be understanding what is going on here...

1. "3C epiphany; Covid-19 in Japan." The Economist, 12 Dec. 2020, p. 39(US).