“Israel's recent war with Iran served as a cautionary tale for countries with sophisticated missile defenses and those that seek to have them. Over 12 days, Iran pierced Israel's defenses with increasing success, showing that even the world's most advanced systems can be penetrated.
While most of Iran's missiles and drones were knocked down, Tehran changed tactics and found gaps in Israel's armor through trial and error.
Tehran began to launch more-advanced and longer-range missiles from a wider range of locations deep inside Iran, according to missile-defense experts who analyzed open-source data and public images of missile fragments. The regime also altered the timing and pattern of attacks and increased the geographic spread of targets, the analysts found.
As the war went on, Iran fired fewer missiles, but its success rate rose, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from think tanks based in Israel and Washington, D.C.
In the first half of the conflict, 8% of Iran's missiles slipped through Israel's defenses. By the second half of the war, 16% got past Israel's interceptors, according to data from the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America, or Jinsa.
The success rate doesn't take into account missiles that failed to launch or were intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace, said Mora Deitch, head of the Data Analytics Center at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. Nor does it distinguish between missiles that were allowed to strike open areas in Israel and those that Israeli interceptors missed, said Deitch, whose think tank provided data on Iranian strikes and Israeli defense capabilities.
Iran's most successful attacks came on June 22, two days before the end of the war, when 10 out of 27 missiles hit Israel, according to the Jinsa data. The data suggest that Iran successfully adapted "how, when and what" it was firing, said Ari Cicurel, associate director of foreign policy at Jinsa.
The Israeli military declined to comment on Jinsa's figures beyond saying it doesn't share specifics on interception rates.
Israel's aerial defense -- including the famed Iron Dome that intercepts short-range rockets from Gaza and Lebanon -- is among the best in the world and was developed in partnership with the U.S.
"Any missile system, even a sophisticated one like Israel's, will leak eventually," said Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at Rand, created as a Pentagon think tank. "The key for any air-defense system is less that you build a perfect system with any one layer and more the cumulative effect."
During the conflict, the Israeli military said it was intercepting 90% to 95% of Iran's missiles. After the cease-fire on June 24, the military said it had intercepted 86% overall.
In January, President Trump said he wanted to develop a $175 billion missile-defense system to protect the U.S. from potential missile attacks. America's size would make its skies much harder to defend than Israel's.
Ukraine offers a better example of defending a large territory over a yearslong conflict, but its air defenses are a patchwork of American, European and homegrown technologies. Israel's advanced integrated system is more akin to what the U.S. seeks to develop, Cohen of Rand said.
Israel's own success at attacking Iranian missile launchers prevented Iran from deploying its older, less accurate and shorter-range missiles. But it also meant that Tehran reached for its more-advanced and longer-range missiles sooner in the conflict.
Fragments of Iran's hypersonic Fattah-1 missile fell in at least two Israeli towns, according to footage of debris analyzed by missile experts.
The Fattah-1 descends at a sharp angle from outside the Earth's atmosphere and carries a warhead that detaches in flight and can dodge interceptors. Only Israel's most advanced systems can change course midflight to track it.
Tehran further tested Israel's interceptors by changing up its firing patterns, targeting far-apart cities.
"They tried to separate the Israeli defense system," said Yehoshua Kalisky, a missile-defense expert at INSS.” [1]
Better industry can overwhelm any defense. Who will out-produce others, they will control the world.
The notion that industrial superiority is paramount to military success and global influence is a historical theme dating back to the American Civil War and both World Wars
However, the landscape of power is increasingly complex in the 21st century.
Industrial might still plays a significant role
Mass Production: The ability to mass-produce weapons, equipment, and supplies remains crucial for sustaining prolonged conflicts and equipping modern armies.
Technological Advancements: Nations with robust industrial and research capabilities can develop and adopt advanced technologies like AI, drones, and hypersonic weapons, gaining a strategic edge.
Economic Power: A strong economy, often fueled by industrial production, provides the resources necessary to invest in defense, research, and maintain a competitive military.
However, modern warfare and global power dynamics are shaped by several factors alongside industrial output
Technological Innovation: While industrial capacity for mass production is important, the ability to innovate and develop cutting-edge technologies, regardless of scale, can be a game-changer, especially in areas like cyber warfare or autonomous systems, according to the International Affairs Forum.
Skill and Strategy: Even with advanced technology, human skill, leadership, and effective tactics remain vital for success on the battlefield.
Resource Control: Control over critical resources like oil, gas, and rare earth elements, often linked to industrial processes, is also a key factor driving geopolitical risks and conflicts, according to LinkedIn.
Cyber Capabilities: Cyber warfare has emerged as a new frontier, allowing even smaller actors to disrupt critical infrastructure and achieve strategic effects without traditional industrial might, says S&P Global.
Supply Chain Resilience: Globalized supply chains mean nations are increasingly reliant on others for critical components. Building resilient supply chains, whether through domestic production, diverse sourcing, or partnerships, is essential for national security. Robotic drones will destroy those supply chains though.
Alliances and Partnerships: Collaborative efforts between democratic nations in areas like defense innovation and co-production can strengthen their collective defense industrial base and mitigate risks, according to Breaking Defense.
While industrial power remains a crucial element, the modern world demands a more nuanced understanding of military and global influence. Technological superiority, a skilled workforce, strategic alliances, and resilient supply chains are equally vital for a nation's defense and its ability to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape.
1. Iran Found Gaps in Israel's Storied Air-Defense System. Smith, Zvi; Faucon, Benoit. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 16 July 2025: A7.
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