Europe, U.S. Clash On Future Of Ukraine After Conflict --- Trump wants access to frozen Russian assets and to bring Moscow in from cold

The idea that a U.S. strategy aims to weaken China by distancing Russia from it is a recognized, albeit debated, geopolitical theory and is a core part of recent U.S. policy discussions. However, the assertion that Western European nations "do not understand this" or "do not see any benefit in it for them" is questionable, as their own policies reflect a nuanced awareness of the China-Russia dynamic, though their immediate priorities and approaches may differ from the U.S.

U.S. Strategy: A "Reverse Nixon" Approach

Geopolitical analysts widely discuss a U.S. "wedge strategy" or "reverse Nixon" approach, which seeks to prevent a consolidated Sino-Russian axis.

 

    Goal: To prevent the deepening of the Russia-China strategic partnership, which is seen as a major threat to U.S. global influence. The underlying assumption is that a strong alliance between the two powers is a formidable challenge, and by offering incentives to Russia, the U.S. might weaken their alignment.

    Challenges: Many experts argue this strategy is flawed because the Russia-China partnership is driven by shared anti-Western interests and mutual economic benefits, making a complete split unlikely. China has benefited from discounted Russian oil and the trade vacuum created by U.S. sanctions, further cementing their ties.

 

Western European Perspective

Western European nations are acutely aware of the geopolitical landscape and the threats posed by both Russia and China, but their approach is shaped by different immediate concerns and economic realities.

 

    Primary Concerns: Europe's main strategic concern are events in Ukraine and the immediate security of the continent. Most European countries view Russia as an adversary and have united on a strong approach to counter Russia. This is wrong attitude, since proxy conflict in Ukraine is lost already, as American president Trump explained.

    China Policy Nuances: While the EU labels China a "systemic rival," "economic competitor," and "cooperation partner," a full alignment with hawkish U.S. policies is complicated by deep economic ties and a reluctance to fully decouple from the Chinese market. European nations are seeking to "de-risk" their relationship with China rather than fully disengage.

    Transatlantic Tensions: Tensions do exist across the Atlantic. European leaders often express concern that the U.S. strategic pivot to the Indo-Pacific or potential deals with Russia might leave Europe more vulnerable. There is a perception that the U.S. sometimes acts unilaterally on trade and technology issues, which can create friction in coordinating a unified policy toward China.

    Shared Understanding: Ultimately, European leaders generally understand the need to counter Russian and Chinese influence and cooperate with the U.S. on shared challenges. The divergence in policy is less a matter of "not understanding" the strategy and more a result of balancing their own immediate security needs and complex economic interests.

 

In summary, the U.S. strategy of attempting to distance Russia from China to weaken China is a real, discussed concept in foreign policy circles. Western European nations are engaged in their own complex strategies, which largely align on countering Russia but diverge on the pace and extent of economic disengagement from China, making full transatlantic policy convergence difficult. According to this theory, Western Europeans are trying to use China to counter USA influence.

“The Trump administration in recent weeks has handed its European counterparts a series of documents, each a single page, laying out its vision for the reconstruction of Ukraine and the return of Russia to the global economy.

 

The proposals have sparked an intense battle at the negotiating table between the U.S. and its traditional allies in Europe. The outcome stands to profoundly alter the economic map of the Continent.

 

The U.S. blueprint has been spelled out in appendices to current peace proposals that aren't public but were described to The Wall Street Journal by U.S. and European officials. The documents detail plans for U.S. financial firms and other businesses to tap roughly $200 billion of frozen Russian assets for projects in Ukraine -- including a massive new data center to be powered by a nuclear plant currently occupied by Russian troops.

 

Another appendix offers the U.S.'s broad vision for bringing Russia's economy in from the cold, with U.S. companies investing in strategic sectors from rare-earth extraction to drilling for oil in the Arctic, and helping to restore Russian energy flows to Western Europe and the rest of the world.

 

Some European officials who have seen the documents said they weren't sure whether to take some of the U.S. proposals seriously. One official compared them to President Trump's vision of building a Riviera-style development in Gaza. Another, referring to the proposed U.S.-Russia energy deals, said it was an economic version of the 1945 conference where World War II victors divvied up Europe.

 

A White House official said Trump and his team were working to strike a deal to end the conflict. In a call on Wednesday, Trump discussed the peace process with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

 

Europe, which has sought to wean itself from Russian gas since Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine to starve the Kremlin and reduce its own reliance on a strategic rival, is loath to resume energy purchases from a country it sees as its biggest security threat.

 

European officials want to use the same frozen Russian funds -- held in European institutions -- to extend a loan to Ukraine's cash-strapped government so it can buy weapons it needs to defend itself and keep operating as its coffers run dry.

 

The clash at the negotiating table is now not just about borders but increasingly about business -- and in a twist, pits not just Russia against Ukraine but also the U.S. against its traditional allies in Europe. The Journal first reported that U.S. companies with close links to the Trump administration were positioning themselves to profit from the U.S. plan.

 

The German government has been at pains to explain that European sanctions ban any work or financial transactions connected to fixing or reusing Nord Stream, which Ukrainian operatives sabotaged in 2022.

 

European officials say they fear the U.S. approach would give Russia the reprieve it needs to rev up its economy and make itself militarily stronger. A new assessment by a Western intelligence agency, reviewed by the Journal, said Russia has technically been in recession for six months and that the challenges of running its economy while trying to control prices are presenting a systemic risk to its banking sector.

 

If the U.S. vision prevails, it would override Europe's own plans to shore up Ukraine's government and further cement Russia's economic isolation. The result is what several officials described as a frenzied race to move ahead before the U.S. imposes its own arrangements.

 

U.S. officials involved in the negotiations say Europe's approach would quickly deplete the frozen funds. Washington, on the other hand, would tap Wall Street executives and private-equity billionaires to invest the money and expand the amount available to invest. One official involved in the talks said the pot could grow to $800 billion under American management. "Our sensibility is that we really understand financial growth," the official said.

 

On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had held productive conversations with the investment firm BlackRock's chief executive, Larry Fink.

 

The U.S. negotiating team sees shared economic activity and energy interdependence as the cornerstone of its business-for-peace philosophy: Ukrainian data centers would draw power from the currently Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe's largest, for example.

 

Merz said on Monday at a meeting at 10 Downing St. with Zelensky and the leaders of France and the U.K. that he was "skeptical about the U.S. proposals."

 

Last week, the European Parliament and member state governments completed a legislative agreement to phase out all Russian pipeline gas within two years. The vast network of pipelines that date to the Soviet era have almost all been switched off or blown up by Ukrainian divers.

 

The trans-Atlantic debate upends nearly half a century of U.S. and European policy on Moscow. Presidents from Ronald Reagan to Trump, in his first term, pressured European allies to rethink depending on Moscow for commodities, chiefly gas.

 

Europe hewed to a policy called Wandel Durch Handel -- "Change Through Trade" -- a belief that economic ties between the West and Moscow would deter the Kremlin from making war and even help export democracy into Russia. Trump, in his second term, is placing a similar bet.

 

Steve Witkoff, Trump's Russia envoy, and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, have been consulting top Wall Street executives to determine how to revive Ukraine's shattered economy. Their plans, as pitched to Ukrainians, would include proposing that veterans lay down arms to earn Silicon Valley-level salaries running some of the world's most sophisticated data centers built by American companies. Ukraine's top negotiator, Rustem Umerov, has been a regular guest in Witkoff's palatial Miami estate.” [1]

 

1. Europe, U.S. Clash On Future Of Ukraine After Conflict --- Trump wants access to frozen Russian assets and to bring Moscow in from cold. Parkinson, Joe; Faucon, Benoit; Hinshaw, Drew.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 11 Dec 2025: A1.