“Not a reinstatement of border controls, but stopping the
demographic collapse and climate change will protect Europe from a wave of
immigration.
“I have my AfD,” Donald Tusk replied when I asked him on May
8 whether he should not approach Friedrich Merz’s decision to tighten controls
on Germany’s external borders, including the one with Poland, with greater
understanding. The chancellor, who began his term that day by visiting Paris
and Warsaw, is trying to stop the spectacular growth of support for the far
right, which, at least in polls, has emerged as the leading political force in
Germany.
On Tuesday,
the Polish prime minister fulfilled his threat from almost two months ago. He
also ordered the reinstatement of border controls with Germany (and Lithuania),
because in polls, populist and nationalist groups are also definitely on the
rise on the Vistula.
It is hard
to find another reason for the actions of both politicians. According to
Frontex, not only is there no migration crisis in united Europe today, but last
year the number of illegal immigrants immigrants who entered the EU dropped by
a spectacular 38 percent compared to 2023. Germany is also not sending back
more people at the border with our country today than it was in 2024, when no
one was talking about restoring border controls here.
Schengen,
the largest free travel zone in the world, is dying before our eyes
But Tusk and
Merz do not particularly stand out in Europe. On the contrary, they fit into
the sad norm of our times. Of the 29 countries that make up the Schengen
agreement, only 13 have not restored control on their borders. The largest free
travel zone in the world, which theoretically covers 450 million people, is
dying before our eyes. The leading symbol of European integration, next to the
euro, is dying.
Far-right and populist groups in most of Europe built their
position on fear first of the great wave of immigration from the Middle East in
2015, and then of the huge crowd of Ukrainian refugees who fled Ukraine in
2022. The problem has existed for at least 10 years. During this time, however,
no effective ways have been found to prevent a mass influx of immigrants in the
future.
From Spain
to Poland, the vast majority of European countries are experiencing an
unprecedented demographic collapse. In some of them, such as Italy, it is
already translating into economic stagnation. In a moment, this will mean the
collapse of the social security model, unless political consent for the mass
arrival of migrants for work returns.
If
temperatures jump a few more degrees in the summer, immigrants from North
Africa and the Middle East will head for Europe
But no
effective way to stop global warming has been found either. On the contrary,
for many voters, the concept of the "Green Deal" has become a curse
that even politicians from mainstream parties do not want to have anything to
do with. However, this summer, temperatures of up to 46 degrees have already
been recorded on the Iberian Peninsula, and even higher in North Africa and the
Middle East. It is easy to predict that if they jump a few more degrees, tens
or hundreds of millions of desperate migrants will rush towards Europe. And no
border controls will stop them.
Demographic and climate policy, however, require huge
expenditures spread over decades. Only an agreement of all political forces in
the name of the higher national interest could remedy this. Today, however, for
politicians, there is no higher value than their personal career for the next
year or two.”
If temperature keeps rising as it does, hundreds of millions from the
Global
South will move to the USA and EU. Nothing, no alligators, no military
can stop this level of migration. The Western civilization will die in
the chaos that Western civilization produced pushing industrialization
and
military-industrial complex development.
This concern about climate change-induced migration from the Global South to
the USA and EU is a complex issue, with research predicting significant
population movements due to climate impacts
.
Predictions of Climate Migration:
- Studies project that climate change could displace between 50 million and 250 million people by 2050.
- Some models indicate this number could rise to 630 million by 2100.
- The
World Bank estimates that 216 million people could be internally
displaced within their own countries by 2050 due to climate change.
- These
displacements will primarily be within regions like Sub-Saharan Africa,
South Asia, and Latin America, but international migration is also
expected to increase.
Factors Driving Climate Migration:
- Extreme weather events: Increased frequency and intensity of storms, floods, heatwaves, and droughts force people to leave their homes.
- Sea-level rise: Rising seas threaten coastal communities, particularly in low-lying areas and island nations.
- Resource scarcity:
Climate change can lead to dwindling resources like water and arable
land, exacerbating existing tensions and potentially driving conflict
and migration.
Impact on Receiving Countries:
- Large-scale migration can strain resources and infrastructure in receiving communities.
- There may be challenges in integrating newcomers and providing essential services.
- Some research suggests potential economic benefits from immigration, such as revitalizing neighborhoods and filling labor gaps.
- However, unplanned migration can also lead to social tensions and strain on public services.
Addressing the Challenges:
- International cooperation: Collaboration between countries is crucial for managing migration flows and supporting displaced people.
- Climate action: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in climate resilience measures are essential long-term strategies.
- Providing legal pathways: Establishing formal migration channels, such as through work visas, can help people move in a safer and more orderly manner.
- Addressing root causes:
Investing in adaptation and development in vulnerable regions can help
people cope with climate impacts and reduce the need to migrate.
Important Note:
The term "climate refugee" is not recognized under international law.
Most climate migration occurs within a country's borders. However, the
lack of legal protections for those displaced by climate change
highlights the need for international agreements and policies to address
this growing challenge.
The Council on Foreign Relations
notes that while there are no comparable projections for cross-border
migration, natural disasters and slow-moving climate change are linked
to increased international migration, especially for those living near
borders.
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