Without Molecules of Freedom: Why US Gas Prices Are Breaking Records ---- Gas exports from America to winter Europe have led to fuel shortages in the domestic market

 

Record U.S. natural gas prices, especially for winter heating, are driven by booming LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) exports to Europe and Asia, record demand from data centers, and slower oil drilling reducing associated gas, creating domestic shortages despite near-record production. These exports, meant to supply allies replacing Russian gas, divert molecules from the U.S. market, causing price spikes that impact consumers and create political tension.

Key Factors Driving High Prices:

 

    Record LNG Exports: U.S. companies are sending massive amounts of gas overseas, primarily to Europe, leading to tighter domestic supply and higher costs for American homes and businesses.

 

    Europe's Energy Needs: European nations, weaning off Russian gas, have a huge appetite for U.S. LNG, creating strong international demand that pulls gas out of the U.S. market.

 

    Data Center Boom: The rapid growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is fueling massive new energy demand from data centers, adding to overall domestic demand for natural gas.

    Reduced Oil Drilling: Lower crude oil prices have slowed oil drilling, which also reduces the production of natural gas that comes out of the same wells (associated gas).

    Structural Supply Tightness: While production is high, the pace of exports is outpacing supply growth, altering the domestic balance and causing rapid price increases.

 

Impact on Consumers:

 

    Higher Heating Bills: The record export pace means less gas available for U.S. consumers during winter, pushing up prices for home heating.

 

    Affordability Crisis: Surging gas prices contribute to broader cost-of-living concerns, creating political issues for leaders like President Trump, who have pushed for energy dominance through exports.

 

The "Molecules of Freedom" Concept:

 

    The phrase highlights the shift of U.S. natural gas ("molecules") to international markets, often framed as providing energy security ("freedom") to allies, but it comes at the cost of domestic affordability and supply.

 

Outlook:

 

    New LNG export facilities coming online are expected to increase export capacity further, potentially worsening the domestic supply crunch, despite calls for U.S. Congress to intervene.

 

Below is the analysis with more details:

"The "energy dominance" strategy, which Donald Trump made the banner of his return to the White House, turned out to be not so easy to implement. In recent years, the US has promised to flood the world with cheap resources and simultaneously lower bills for American households. But while LNG terminals in Texas are breaking records for gas shipments to Europe, trying to replace Russian gas, the US has unexpectedly faced a problem of fuel availability. Gas prices have soared to three-year highs, coal-fired power plants, which environmentalists had already written off, are returning to operation, and ordinary Americans are finding that they are paying for the energy security of the European Union out of their own pockets.

The Price of Solidarity

 

The American gas market is in turmoil by the end of 2025: wholesale prices have jumped by more than 70% in the last 12 months. In early December, quotes at the key Henry Hub in Texas broke the $5.29 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) mark. This is the highest level since December 2022, when the global hydrocarbon market was in turmoil due to the consequences of the start of the Ukrainian crisis and the rupture of Europe's energy ties with Russia.

 

The reason for this surge lies on the surface – the Atlantic Ocean. The US is exporting record volumes of gas. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in September 2025, exports reached a record 9.41 million tons. In total, the country plans to export about 421 million cubic meters per day, or 153 billion cubic meters per year, which is 25% more than in 2024.

One last drink: Europe is buying Russian gas before the cessation of supplies

The volume of natural gas supplies from Russia to EU countries has increased to a record level

 

Launch New terminals, such as Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana, have opened the floodgates for the outflow of natural gas abroad. Europe, striving to buy as much as possible to avoid returning to purchases from Russia, has become the main beneficiary. However, for the American market, this has created a communicating vessels effect: by exporting gas, America is importing high world prices. As IEEFA analyst Clark Williams-Derry noted, "this is great news for the gas industry, but bad for the consumer." On the coldest days of winter, when cold waves from Canada penetrate the US, local power plants are forced to compete for the same gas with buyers from Spain or France and sometimes lose this price war.

"The most expensive gas in the world"

 

The problem is exacerbated by chronic underfunding of domestic infrastructure. The US finds itself in a paradoxical situation: the country is literally swimming in gas, but cannot deliver it where it is needed. The situation in New England (in the states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont) is characteristic. Due to political decisions and opposition from environmental activists, the construction of new pipelines to this region has been blocked. As a result, while in Appalachia (Virginia) gas costs about $4 per MMBtu, in Boston (Massachusetts) this winter prices are approaching $14. This is the most expensive fuel not only in America, but in the world.

 

Market forces have been suppressed by political ones, leading to the fragmentation of a single market. In fact, there are now two gas markets in the US: one is export-oriented and highly profitable, the other is domestic, suffering from shortages and price disparities.

 

EIA forecasts are discouraging: in 2025, the average price of gas for power plants will increase by 37%. and for industrial consumers – by 21%. This is a direct blow to the competitiveness of American industry, which has enjoyed the advantage of cheap energy for the past ten years.

The Coal Renaissance

 

The most unexpected consequence of "gas inflation" was the return of coal. What coal industry lobbyists could not achieve, market prices did. Gas became too expensive for electricity generation, and utilities began to massively switch to cheaper coal.

 

Statistics indicate a break in the long-term trend. Reserves of thermal coal will fall by 17% by the end of the year – it is simply being burned faster than it can be mined. The consulting company Wood Mackenzie has already revised its forecasts: if two years ago they expected a 60% drop in coal-fired power generation by 2032, now the decline is estimated at only 39%.

 

Chris Wright, the Secretary of Energy appointed by Trump, openly calls for a halt to the decommissioning of coal-fired power plants. "Energy sobriety has returned to Washington," he said, meaning that the ideological tenets of the "green transition" are giving way to the threat of blackouts. The boom in artificial intelligence and data centers – technologies of the future – that has unfolded in recent years will be powered by burning the dirtiest fuel of the past, because there is not enough gas for everyone.

Drilling Can't Keep Up with Demand

 

The fundamental problem of the American market is that the boom in demand (exports and data centers) is outpacing supply and physical capabilities for increasing production. Experts at Rapidan Energy Group have calculated that to meet market demand by the beginning of the next decade, the US needs to increase production by 566 million cubic meters per day.

 

But where will these volumes come from? Here, the American energy sector falls into a trap of its own geology. A significant portion of the production increase in recent years has been provided by associated gas, which comes as a "bonus" when extracting oil, primarily in the Permian Basin. In 2024, the production of such gas increased by 6%, to 524 million cubic meters per day, providing 37% of all gas production in key regions. In the Permian Basin, this share reaches as high as 47%.

 

However, associated gas is a hostage to oil prices. It is only produced when it is profitable to drill for oil. Now, when world prices for black gold are under pressure and far from triple-digit values, oil companies are not in a hurry to aggressively drill new wells. And without new oil, there is no increase in cheap associated gas.

 

Hopes for purely gas fields, such as Haynesville or Marcellus, run into economic barriers. Haynesville consists of deep, hot formations with high production costs. Rapidan analysts predict that "sources of cheap gas are unlikely to provide the growth needed to meet demand." The era of gas at $2.5 per MMBtu may soon be a thing of the past.

A cloudy future

 

In the case of the US, a kind of resource curse in reverse has occurred. In trying to become a global guarantor of energy security for its allies and simultaneously feed the voracious AI sector, the US has strained its own energy balance. The outlook for 2026–2030 looks challenging. LNG export capacity on the Gulf Coast will double, siphoning even more resources from the domestic market. Forward curves show that prices at the Henry Hub could rise above $5 per MMBtu and stay there for a long time.

 

For Europe, this means that American LNG will be available, but at exorbitant prices. American voters, in turn, will receive a cold shower (perhaps literally) in the form of higher utility bills. And for the global market, this is a signal that the era of cheap American energy, which for many years kept world prices in check, is nearing its end. Market balancing will now occur not through the flexibility of shale producers, but through demand destruction and a return to coal.”