The West Is in Deep Doo Doo: France's Macron and Germany's Scholz Are Brain Dead

Germany's Scholz stopped cheap Russian gas flowing into Germany and killed German industry. Macron's story is much more interesting.

 

VERSAILLES, France -- President Emmanuel Macron was in his element last month, holding court with foreign investors at a Davos-inspired conference inside the Palace of Versailles.

European elections were just around the corner, but Macron was already thinking beyond the ballot box. He wanted to discuss the rise of artificial intelligence, and he instructed the array of executives from tech companies and sovereign-wealth funds to "please be super direct."

One executive warned the voracious technology would require the world to double its energy supply. Another said AI would unleash a wave of job displacement. If Macron was fazed by the talk of economic disruption, he didn't show it.

"Look," Macron said, "I think there is a strong consensus on what we have to do now: accelerate, accelerate, accelerate."

Throughout his seven years in office, Macron has kept his foot on the pedal, relentlessly revamping the French economy with tax cuts and labor market overhauls to make France an attractive destination for foreign companies and the global elite.

France's economic makeover, however, has come at a steep political price. Many voters say they have grown tired of Macron's tendency to run France like a business rather than a country. His technocratic focus on France's ability to compete in the global marketplace has done little to placate widespread anxieties over immigration and the rising cost of living.

Macron has also governed like a chief executive, advancing his pro-business agenda through directives rather than building consensus across French society. Since Macron was re-elected in 2022, his government has exercised article 49.3 of the French constitution -- which allows French presidents to circumvent the National Assembly -- 23 times, the most of any government in more than three decades.

Voters logged their disapproval by handing Marine Le Pen's far-right party a commanding victory over Macron's forces in elections earlier this month for the European Parliament. Rather than turn the page on what many considered a protest vote, Macron stunned France by deciding to dissolve the country's own parliament and call snap elections for the 577-seat National Assembly.

Macron has cast the new vote as a moment of truth for France that would reveal whether voters actually support Le Pen's nationalist, anti-immigrant agenda. It is a colossal bet, based on the assumption that voters choosing between a multitude of parties in the first round of voting on June 30 will eventually rally behind Macron's party for the July 7 runoff.

The snap elections, however, are also turning into a referendum on "le macronisme." Polls show Macron's party trailing Le Pen's National Rally and a coalition of leftist parties that are keen to unwind many of Macron's market friendly changes. One survey shows many of Macron's candidates struggling to even qualify for the runoff, and Le Pen's candidates landing as many as 305 seats, a majority that would allow her to pick Macron's next prime minister.

The vote doesn't directly impact Macron's ability to remain in office until his term ends in 2027, and Macron has said he won't resign. But a defeat in national elections would severely hobble him and place National Rally at the threshold of power -- just as the country scrambles ahead of the Olympics, which open July 26.

"He keeps saying he's heard us, that he understands, he's going to overhaul the country faster, accelerate. But we don't want to go this way," said Emmanuel Ringuet, a 53-year-old technician at carmaker Renault.

Public services were being gutted under Macron, Ringuet said, while his working-class town on the outskirts of Paris has been overrun with crime. A lifelong socialist, Ringuet said he is now considering voting for National Rally for the first time, adding: "It hurts me, but it's for the common good."

From the moment Macron stepped onto France's political stage he has stood out as an unapologetic globalist. He set out to prove the European Union, one of globalism's grandest projects, could coalesce into a "sovereign Europe" with secure external borders and common defense. Macron wanted France to lead by example, reining in its sizable government spending and opening its cosseted economy up to more market forces.

"We are making reforms, we are changing the face of our country, but we are doing so with a European ambition," Macron said in a speech after he was elected in 2017.

Now in his second term, Macron has created jobs, stoked economic growth and drawn droves of foreign investors to the country. But he has struggled to provide the French public with a sense of security and sovereignty. Europe's borders remain porous -- allowing migrants to hopscotch around the continent -- and a Macron bill aimed at toughening immigration laws inside France was largely struck down by the country's constitutional court.

Macron is rowing against a nationalist current similar to those that produced Brexit in the U.K. and the rise of Donald Trump in the U.S. For many voters, globalization hasn't delivered on its chief promise: that a rising tide of economic growth would lift all boats. Public services have languished under Macron's cash-strapped government.

The EU -- built on a foundation of free trade -- is struggling to compete in a world of rising trade barriers as the U.S. and China unleash a torrent of subsidies and other measures to protect their economies. Many Europeans grew poorer in the aftermath of the pandemic, the inflation shock and events in Ukraine.

The spending programs Macron enacted to soften the impact of these crises have blown a hole in France's public finances. Whoever Macron picks as prime minister -- which isn't straightforward if no party wins an outright majority in the parliamentary elections -- will have to scramble to find tens of billions of euros in budget savings.

Jordan Bardella, National Rally's prime minister candidate, has said he plans to conduct an audit of public finances before deciding whether to lower the age of retirement back to 62 years old. Macron had raised it to 64 to push back pension payments. Bardella also plans to slash sales tax on fuel and electricity.

The New Popular Front, the coalition of leftist parties, is campaigning on promises to roll back many of Macron's economic overhauls. The coalition wants to lower the retirement age to 60; reinstate a wealth tax; dole out more housing benefits; and boost public sector wages, linking them to inflation. The measures, according to an alliance estimate, will cost 100 billion euros in 2025, or around $107 billion, and 150 billion euros in 2027.

Investors already have grown more wary of holding French assets since Macron called the snap election, driving up the government's borrowing costs and adding to pressure on public finances.

When Macron was appointed economy minister in 2014 under then-president Francois Hollande, France was widely considered a hostile environment for investors. Corporate taxes made it expensive to hire employees while a thicket of labor regulations made it costly to fire them. Unemployment hovered above 10%, and economic growth was stagnant.

Unions wielded the power to bring the government to its knees with street protests and to turn corporate executives into public enemies.

Macron's election as president in 2017 marked a realignment of France's political establishment. He had run as a defender of France's place in the EU and of the euro. Voters rallied behind Macron, fearing a Le Pen victory would mean an exit from the common currency. They also handed Macron's newly formed pro-business political party a commanding majority in the National Assembly.

Macron, a former investment banker, unleashed a barrage of market-friendly overhauls once he took office. He massively scaled back a wealth tax that had been established by President Francois Mitterrand, a lion of socialism, to finance welfare entitlements. Macron followed that up with a decree that capped the severance pay employees can seek from their employers in labor tribunals.

It was against this backdrop that Macron began holding annual confabs at the Palace of Versailles. Executives ranging from Tesla's Elon Musk to Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, leapt at the chance to be squired through the palace's ornate interiors.

Companies responded by announcing billions of euros in investments. Private-sector job growth accelerated. France saw net creation of industrial jobs for the first time since the mid-1990s. France has been the top spot for foreign investment in Europe for five years straight, according to Ernst & Young.

Macron's appeal to investors was becoming a liability at home, where opponents branded him a "president of the rich." Wealth inequality was on the rise. Tensions boiled over with the yellow-vest movement of late 2018 when commuters rebelled against Macron's plans to raise fuel taxes as part of his efforts to green the economy.

The president's lofty demeanor didn't help things. Macron had once compared the French presidency to Jupiter, the ancient king of the gods. When an unemployed gardener told Macron in 2018 about his struggles in finding a job, Macron cut him off and said: "Honestly -- hotels, cafes, restaurants -- I'll cross the street and find you one."

Wages had been stagnant for the better part of two decades, fueling widespread sentiment that the French middle class could no longer attain the living standards of previous generations, a phenomenon called le grand declassement.

Immigration, meanwhile, was on the rise across the country with many migrants settling in the outskirts of large French cities or in smaller towns where housing was more affordable. Many came from North Africa, bringing with them Muslim customs that Le Pen and her supporters say clash with France's strictly secular culture.

Philippe Maniere, a 58-year-old social worker, said the influx transformed the area around Dijon. "I can see the town has changed," he said, adding he has seen a surge of violence in recent years. He plans to vote for Bardella in the coming elections.

French households fell further behind when inflation rose amid the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Supply chains were disrupted and restrictions on Russian oil and gas caused fuel prices to spike.

Macron's government put in place a national energy price cap and measures that helped inflation remain lower in France than in many of its European peers. The moves, however, ended up costing the government 85 billion euros, according to one study by the French Senate.

Under pressure to repair the country's finances, Macron took the fateful and deeply unpopular step of raising the retirement age in an effort to tackle one of the government's biggest expenditures: pension payments. Millions of protesters poured into the streets in demonstrations that lasted months.

Macron faced a surge of economic nationalism in China and the U.S. Chinese manufacturers with Beijing's support flooded Europe with electric vehicles, solar panels and other goods.

The Biden administration, meanwhile, passed the Inflation Reduction Act, channeling hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies and tax incentives toward manufacturers who operate in the U.S. The legislation broadsided Macron, who flew to Washington to warn Biden the U.S. subsidies would put Europe at a competitive disadvantage and hollow out the continent's industrial base." [1]

1. World News: French Voters Grow Tired of 'Macronisme' --- Migrant crisis and inflation help spur electoral support for far-right party. Meichtry, Stacy; Bisserbe, Noemie; Dulaney, Chelsey.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 29 June 2024: A.9. 

Krenta nuo ausų makaronai, kabinėti Macrono

 "Abstraktas

 

 Birželio 9 d., naktį, kai jo partija pralaimėjo Europos Parlamento rinkimuose Marine Le Pen Nacionaliniam mitingui, akcijų rinka nukrito 4%. Nors prezidentas turi daug galių gynybos ir užsienio politikos srityje, naują vidaus politiką, kaip ir biudžetą, turi priimti parlamentas. Tikėtina, kad šiuo metu jo palikimas yra neprigijusios reformos ir išardytas politinis centras – tiek, kad jo įpėdinė prezidento poste vis dar gali būti jo priešė, ponia Le Pen.

 

 Pilnas tekstas

 

 Tai gali neprilygti Napoleono žygiui į Maskvą 1812 m., tačiau Emmanuelio Macrono sprendimas šį mėnesį surengti parlamento rinkimus atrodo, kaip vienas iš labiausiai save naikinančių Prancūzijos lyderio lošimų šiais laikais. Po septynerių jo centristinės vyriausybės metų rinkėjų sprendimas gali būti griežtas. Tai gali panardinti Prancūziją į politinę, o gal net ekonominę krizę. Viena auka būtų paties E. Macrono reformų projektas.

 

 Kol kas ženklai yra grėsmingi. Birželio 9 d., naktį, kai jo partija pralaimėjo Europos Parlamento rinkimuose Marine Le Pen Nacionaliniam mitingui, akcijų rinka nukrito 4%. Trijų didžiųjų Prancūzijos bankų akcijų kainos sumažėjo beveik 10%. Obligacijų skirtumai didėja. Eurorinkimai dažniausiai yra protesto balsavimas, o ne atspindys to, kaip žmonės reikš save rinkdamiesi savo nacionalinį parlamentą. Tačiau šį kartą jų pykčiui liko vos savaitė išsisklaidyti, o apklausos nerodo jokių ženklų, kad tai išsisklaidys.

 

 Prezidentas susiduria su spaudimu tarp ponios Le Pen griežtosios dešinės ir greitai kuriamo Naujojo liaudies fronto, kuriame yra galingų kairiųjų elementų, ypač partijos „Nepaklusni Prancūzija“, kurioje dominuoja buvęs trockistas Jeanas-Lucas Mélenchonas. Panašu, kad E. Macronas manė, kad toks aljansas nebus sudarytas taip greitai. Prancūzijos parlamento rinkimuose taikoma dviejų turų sistema su aukštu slenksčiu patekti į antrąjį turą. Kyla pavojus, kad dauguma prezidento vyrų ir moterų taip toli nepasieks – paliks pasirinkimą tarp ksenofobiškų nacionalistų ir antikapitalistinių radikalų. Jo politinei grupei „Ensemble“ gresia pusė ar daugiau vietų.

 

 E. Macronas liks pareigose; jo kadencija nesibaigia iki 2027 m. Tačiau nors prezidentas turi daug galių gynybos ir užsienio politikos srityje, naują vidaus politiką, kaip ir biudžetą, turi patvirtinti parlamentas. Jį administruoja vyriausybė, kuriai vadovauja ministras pirmininkas, kurį pasirenka prezidentas, bet kurį parlamentas gali atleisti, paprasčiausiai balsuodamas dėl pasitikėjimo. Praktiškai E. Macronas neturės kito pasirinkimo, kaip tik pasiūlyti darbą bet kurios partijos ar aljanso kandidatui, kuris gaus daugiausia balsų. E. Macronas gali tikėtis, kad jo centristai gali po rinkimų sudaryti aljansą su kitais nuosaikiaisiais, tačiau panašu, kad skaičiai nesueina.

 

 Tai palieka tris pasirinkimus: pakabintas parlamentas arba griežtosios dešinės arba kairiosios vyriausybės. Nė vienas iš jų nėra geras. Tiek dešinieji, tiek kairieji yra įsipareigoję daryti tai, ko Prancūzija negali sau leisti.

 

 Tai apima baudžiamųjų turto mokesčių įvedimą, PVM mažinimą degalams ir E. Macrono pensijų sistemos reformų panaikinimą, kad Prancūzija galėtų grįžti prie vieno anksčiausio pensinio amžiaus pasaulyje. (Dešinieji į mišinį įtrauktų griežtus imigracijos, pilietybės ir laisvo judėjimo apribojimus; kairieji – didelį minimalaus atlyginimo šuolį.)

 

 Problemas apsunkina tai, kad Prancūzija jau turi didelį biudžeto deficitą, kuris šiemet viršija 5% BVP.

 

 Labiausiai tikėtinas rezultatas – pakabintas parlamentas su nestabilia vyriausybe. Gali būti dar blogiau. Kadangi po trejų metų prezidento rinkimuose visi kovojo dėl pranašumo, įstatymams bus sunku pasiekti net biudžetą. Aklavietė gali išplisti į Europos Sąjungą. 

 

Vienintelis dalykas, dėl kurio kietieji kairieji ir dešinieji galėtų susitarti, būtų atsisakyti daugumos pastarųjų septynerių metų reformų.

 

 E. Macrono siekis buvo pertvarkyti Prancūzijos politinę sistemą, stiprinant jos nuosaikius elementus, o nacionalinį sutarimą visam laikui perkelti ekonomikos modernizavimo link. Šiuo metu labiau tikėtina, kad jo palikimas yra neprigijusios reformos ir išardytas politinis centras – tiek, kad jo įpėdinė prezidento poste vis dar gali būti jo priešė, ponia Le Pen." [1]

1. Looking bad. The Economist; London Vol. 451, Iss. 9402,  (Jun 22, 2024): 13.

Good Life Goes On Without Macron

"Abstract

The stockmarket has fallen by 4% since he made his announcement on June 9th, the night of his party’s drubbing in the European Parliament elections at the hands of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. [...]although the president has extensive powers over defence and foreign policy, new domestic policy, like the budget, needs to be voted through by parliament. Right now his legacy looks more likely to be reforms that do not stick and a political centre that has been eviscerated—so much so that his successor as president may yet be his nemesis, Ms Le Pen.

Full Text

IT may NOT measure up to Napoleon’s march on Moscow in 1812, but Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a parliamentary election this month is looking like one of the most self-destructive gambles by a French leader in modern times. After seven years under his centrist government, voters’ judgment threatens to be severe. It may well plunge France into a political, and perhaps even economic, crisis. One victim would be Mr Macron’s own project of reform.

The signs so far are ominous. The stockmarket has fallen by 4% since he made his announcement on June 9th, the night of his party’s drubbing in the European Parliament elections at the hands of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. Share prices in France’s three big banks are down by almost 10%. Bond spreads are widening. Euro-elections tend to be a protest vote, not a reflection of how people will express themselves when choosing their national parliament. This time, however, their anger now has barely a week left to dissipate and the polls show no sign that it will.

The president faces a squeeze between Ms Le Pen’s hard right and a rapidly created New Popular Front that includes powerful hard-left elements, especially the Unsubmissive France party dominated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a former Trotskyist. Mr Macron seems to have assumed such an alliance would not be formed so fast. France’s parliamentary elections use a two-round system, with a high threshold for going through to the second round. The danger is that most of the president’s men and women will not make it that far—leaving a choice between the xenophobic nationalists and the anti-capitalist radicals. His political group, Ensemble, faces losing half its seats or more.

Mr Macron will remain in office; his term does not expire until 2027. But although the president has extensive powers over defence and foreign policy, new domestic policy, like the budget, needs to be voted through by parliament. Administering it is the preserve of the government, headed by a prime minister whom the president picks but whom parliament can dismiss through a simple confidence vote. In practice, Mr Macron will have little choice but to offer the job to the nominee of whichever party or alliance comes top. Mr Macron may hope that his centrists can forge a post-election alliance with other moderates, but the numbers do not look close to adding up.

That leaves three options: a hung parliament, or a government of either the hard right or hard left. None of them is good. Both the right and the left are committed to doing things France cannot afford. 

 These include imposing punitive wealth taxes, slashing VAT on fuel and scrapping Mr Macron’s reforms of the pension system, so that France can go back to one of the earliest retirement ages in the world. (The right would add harsh restrictions on immigration, citizenship and free movement to the mix; the left, a big jump in the minimum wage.) 

 The problems are compounded by the fact that France is already running a high budget deficit, of over 5% of gdp this year.

The most likely outcome is a hung parliament with an unstable government. It might be even worse. As everyone jockeyed for advantage in the presidential poll in three years’ time, legislation would struggle to get through, even a budget. The gridlock could spread to the European Union. The one thing the hard left and right might agree on would be to ditch most of the past seven years’ reforms.

Mr Macron’s ambition was to transform France’s political system by strengthening its moderate elements, and to permanently shift the national consensus towards economic modernisation. Right now his legacy looks more likely to be reforms that do not stick and a political centre that has been eviscerated—so much so that his successor as president may yet be his nemesis, Ms Le Pen." [1]

1. Looking bad. The Economist; London Vol. 451, Iss. 9402,  (Jun 22, 2024): 13.