Trump's New Run at Ukraine Peace

“Finally, Europe and Russia agree about something: Neither is jumping on a Trump proposal to resume the sale of Russian gas to Europe while the conflict in Ukraine is going on.

 

Cue the outrage, never mind that the deal is obvious Trump vaporware. The leverage to get Vladimir Putin to call off his conflict, all readily understand, isn't business deals.

 

Still, the gas proffer comes on the eve of a three-way meeting of Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. in Abu Dhabi. It comes after reports in the Financial Times that the U.S. is no longer pressing Ukraine for territorial concessions.

 

It comes as the Russians have started saying it's pointless to exclude the Europeans since they are the main enthusiasts for continuing the conflict.

 

But wouldn't the Trump proposal overthrow Europe's hard-won energy independence from Russia? Even when castigating Germany years ago for its Putin energy captivity, this column pointed out that the "alternative was never to shut Russian gas out of Germany." It was to stop doing the other things that destroyed the benefit of flexibility and diversity of supply, from shutting down Berlin's coal and nuclear plants to saddling German industry with costly mandates and trying to compensate it with cheap, penny-wise Russian gas.

 

Diversity and flexibility remain the lessons. But if Germany's bet on Mr. Putin was bad, Mr. Putin's bet on Germany was worse. Berlin did wean itself. You won't hear Germans bragging about it.

 

The real failing of Donald Trump's administration isn't his leading with proffered business deals, including those that (always) seem to involve his near and dear.

 

Son-in-law and peace emissary Jared Kushner reportedly believes such reservations are old-think. He rejects the "premise that perceived conflicts of interest were a problem as opposed to a negotiating asset," says a book by two New York Times reporters.

 

Uh huh. Then where are the foreign-policy wins for the American people even as perceptions of the administration's self-dealing were clearly blowing up on it in Tuesday's midterms?

 

Mr. Trump's peace efforts would have benefited a lot more, after his 2024 return to power, from a peace deal with the U.S. intelligence community.

 

Mr. Trump and his antagonists could have kissed and made up to take advantage of a rare asset. By an accident of history, Mr. Trump arrived in office out of sympathy and out of sync with the U.S. bureaucracy, itself committed to Ukraine's survival. This allowed him to pull off a neat trick, speaking of himself and positioning himself as a neutral "mediator," even as a "friend" of Mr. Putin. At the same time, his government continued to supply aid that keeps Ukraine in the fight.

 

What interested party in a negotiation wouldn't want to put itself on both sides of the table simultaneously?

 

This, of course, is lost on a certain kind of Western analyst, albeit less so as Mr. Trump makes his third major run at a settlement. The Russians aren't so dumb that they don't know what's going on. Mr. Putin's spokesmen have played along, one day praising Mr. Trump as a peace seeker and a friend of Moscow, the next lamenting that his doughty efforts are undermined by the U.S. deep state and European warmongers.

 

Mr. Trump hasn't played his hand as well as he might, though it's possible also to overrate the significance of his passing theatrical disputes with Ukraine and its president.

 

A fusillade of "deal" proposals from the U.S., in the meantime, keeps channels open, maintains an atmosphere of activity and movement, fosters uncertainty and hope in Mr. Putin's domestic public.

 

Mr. Trump may not be invested in Ukraine quite the way you wanted him to be. But neither was Joe Biden or the Europeans, though they hid it better. Priority one has always been keeping the conflict contained and preserving a modicum of stability in U.S.-Russia relations.

 

Mr. Trump's outsider act may not be a performance for all seasons but it does have a certain utility in these particular circumstances. In a parallel universe where this asset was married to a consistent, farseeing effort, the conflict might already be over.” [1]

 

1. Trump's New Run at Ukraine Peace. Jenkins, Holman W; Jr.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 04 Nov 2026: A15.