"I don't know if you noticed, but this Lithuanian Government and the Minister of Energy Dainius Kreivys started a secret Cold War with Latvia in the energy sector almost from the first day of work. Not kinetic, but rather negotiation. Negotiations are over. Are we already declaring victory?
Lithuania tried to convince Latvians that they should reduce electricity imports from Russia, because it is Belarusian electricity.
"Persuade" is perhaps too gentle a word here. "Force" would be more accurate.
Lithuanians say that Latvians import Belarusian electricity, which is sold to them as Russian. This violates the Lithuanian “anti-astravian” law, which, among other things, prohibits the use of Lithuanian infrastructure by the Astrava NPP. And electricity flows through our lines.
Latvians are also responding as disliking Aliaksandr Lukashenko and demanding guarantees of Russian electricity. Nobody believes in them, so at the last meeting of the parties, the Latvians offered a compromise. Halfway between the current situation and Lithuania's requirements.
However, D. Kreivys rejected the proposal - all or nothing.
Why so strict? Because the law is being violated in Lithuania. It is true that if electricity, according to Latvians, were Russian, Lithuanian law would not be violated. There would be no problem. Maybe Latvians are right?
When it comes to settlements, there is not much ignorance. Either the money fell into the account or not. If, in the words of the minister, "we consume electricity and pay for it", the money must also fall into the account.
How much money? 16 million Eur, according to Litgrid, which we paid "mostly until March 24" for Belarusian electricity. According to the ministry, the second of the two 9.3 billion euros worth reactors is being built for the money paid by Lithuanian consumers. Or somehow like that.
However, it remains unclear who the "we" from whose account the money fell into the Belarusian account. No one was named or punished.
So the "Belarusian" nature of electricity is strange. Nevertheless, and perhaps because of this, the negotiations ended without result. "Unilateral action" is now being taken. Lithuania is reducing the capacity of electricity connections with Belarus. From September 15.
Roughly speaking, the gates for the necessary electricity flow between Lithuania and Belarus will be closed partially for Latvians to use their connection to them. This will allow them to trade a smaller share of their connection, which means less (Belo) Russian electricity imports.
On what basis? It has been mentioned that force majeure will be announced. Already published? What became of force majeure? For the time being? Is this already the promised "Plan B"? Or maybe victory? Unclear.
Messy communication usually reflects messy thoughts. The whole process is not just for dubious reasons and for an ambiguous purpose. Everything is done under a rug that is under another rug that is nailed to the ceiling in a dark room.
From secret meetings of Seimas committees to unnamed Belarusian electricity buyers, to the undisclosed "Plan B": I and you don't seem to be on the list of people who should know about it.
I have a bad suspicion that when the fog of the war with Latvia dissipates, we will have to deal with legal inconsistencies, failed precedents and long-term damage to regional diplomacy as unexploded ordnance. Only for the Lithuanian rulers to fight the mythical Belarusians in Latvia."
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