"WASHINGTON -- U.S. intelligence agencies are warning that Russia might arm Houthi militants in Yemen with advanced antiship missiles in retaliation for the Biden administration's support for Ukrainian strikes inside Russia with U.S. weapons.
The new intelligence comes as the top U.S. Middle East commander recently advised in a classified letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that military operations in the region are failing to deter Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and that a broader approach is needed, according to U.S. officials.
The White House has launched a confidential push to try to stop Moscow from delivering the missiles to the Iranian-backed Houthis, who have been attacking shipping in the Red Sea for eight months in a show of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
The Houthi threat was highlighted early Friday when an armed drone that the Israeli military said was launched from Yemen struck Tel Aviv, the militant group's first successful targeting of the city since the start of the Gaza war. One person was killed and several were injured by the blast, which hit an apartment near a U.S. diplomatic building, officials said.
The administration's diplomatic effort to head off Moscow's transfer of missiles to Yemen involves using a third country to try to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin not to join Iran in providing weapons to the Houthis, say U.S. officials, who declined to identify the country.
The combination of intelligence that Moscow might be planning to provide military support in Yemen and the warnings from Gen. Erik Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, has raised the question of whether the White House is doing enough to halt the attacks in the critical waterways.
An administration official said Central Command has been asked to prepare a broader list of potential targets, including specific militants, for possible strikes.
Some U.S. officials say, however, that more could have already been done to better protect the commercial shipping, including hitting larger weapons-storage facilities, targeting Houthi leaders and picking targets with a somewhat higher potential casualty count.
A decision by Moscow to arm the Houthis would mark an escalation in its confrontation with Washington, which has been playing out mostly over the conflict in Ukraine. Moscow has already sparked deep concern among U.S. officials by solidifying ties with North Korea and Iran and securing China's help in strengthening the Russian defense industry.
Some analysts think Russians might be brandishing the threat of sending antiship missiles to discourage the administration from taking additional steps to assist Kyiv, such as authorizing Ukrainian forces to use U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, weapons against airfields on Russian territory.
Kurilla called in his letter to Austin for a stepped-up "whole of government" effort against the Houthis, employing economic, diplomatic and potentially stronger military pressure to discourage attacks on ships in the Red Sea and a narrow strait known as Bab el-Mandeb, off Yemen's coast, officials said.
At least 30 ships have been damaged, and two have sunk.
"Many people found the tone of the memo to be a bit shocking," a defense official said. It said essentially that "U.S. service members will die if we continue going this way."
The White House has authorized the military to conduct strikes against Houthi missiles and drones about to be launched and taken other limited steps, which have included seven planned military operations.
A second defense official who defended the current policy said that the U.S. and its partners have destroyed "a significant amount of Houthi capability," including hundreds of missiles and launchers, hundreds of attack drones, dozens of storage facilities for weapons and equipment, numerous command and control targets, air defense systems, radars and several helicopters.
But some Central Command officials say their forces have been unable to prevent the Houthis from regularly threatening commercial shipping in the region because they haven't had the approval to carry out a broader range of strikes.
The Houthi attacks have continued to disrupt shipping and keep the U.S. and its allies tied down, frustrating the Navy's decades-old mission of keeping open critical sea lanes.
"If you tell the military to re-establish freedom of navigation and then you tell them to only be defensive, it isn't going to work," said one U.S. official. "It is all about protecting ships without affecting the root cause."
The Houthis have a diverse arsenal of weapons to attack ships, including attack drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and unmanned boats. Many of the drones and missiles have been provided by Iran or use technology supplied by Tehran.
But the possibility that the Yemeni rebels might receive advanced Russian missiles presents a new danger.
"The Houthis have the most robust antiship capabilities among Iran's regional proxy network," said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. "But Russian antiship weapons would represent a qualitative leap and add more teeth to the existing Houthi maritime threat."" [1]
1. World News: U.S. Tries to Stop Russia From Arming Houthis. Gordon, Michael R; Seligman, Lara.
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 20 July 2024: A.7.
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