"The matter of Russian energy exports is being discussed in
talks with the United States, Moscow says, telling Europe they would have to be
mentally ill to turn down cheap natural gas.
Russia and the United States are discussing the potential
resumption of energy exports through the Nord Stream pipeline in the ongoing
ceasefire and peace talks, the Kremlin says.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on Wednesday
it would be advantageous to “restore normal energy supply” to Europe, revealing
the Nord Stream pipelines are “being discussed” with the United States now. The
subject is one that will not be welcomed in Europe, which had become dependant
on cheap Russian energy in the decades after the end of the Cold War, and
consequently suffered a damaging energy shock at the outbreak of the 2022 events in Ukraine.
European countries were slow to admit they had a problem —
with Germany infamously laughing off Donald Trump’s warnings of its
vulnerability to Russia by being so dependent on it in 2017 — but having gone
through the pain of adjusting to a new reality of considerably higher energy
prices, it may well not wish to go back to how things were.
In an apparent bid at provocation, Lavrov teased that Europe
may be forced into taking Russian energy again. He continued: “it will be
interesting if the Americans use their influence on Europe and will force it
not to reject the Russian gas. That would look surreal… fuel costs are several
times higher for Europe and its businesses than for US businesses.”
Referring specifically to the Nord Stream pipelines — three
of which were blown up by saboteurs in the early days of the war, leaving one
theoretically operable but still dormant — Lavrov observed European leaders
like Ursula von der Leyen “say that they will never allow restoring the Nord
Stream pipelines”. To not want the return of cheap Russian energy must mean
“these people are either [mentally] unhealthy or suicidal”, he claimed.
At the very least, for Europe to import Russian gas and oil
again would mean the nations of Europe lifting their sanctions on Russian
businesses and individuals. Per the European Union’s own account, that
presently seems unlikely even in the case of peace, as Europe’s stated
conditions are essentially total Ukrainian victory. A spokesman for the
European Commission — which von der Leyen leads — said today: “The end of
unprovoked and unjustified Russian aggression in Ukraine and the unconditional
withdrawal of all Russian armed forces from the entire territory of Ukraine
would be one of the key prerequisites for amending or lifting sanctions”.
This sets up Europe for something of a confrontation with
the Trump White House, which has set on a course of splitting Russia off from
China again by giving it a chance to again engage in the Western economy.
Nevertheless, Europe remaining disconnected from Russian energy guarantees a
stable and high-paying market for American natural gas exports, to Trump’s
benefit.
The simple economics of Europe’s industrial base being
crushed by astronomical energy prices might just force things for pragmatism,
however. Major oil company TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said of the
discussion of Ruissian gas: “I would not be surprised if two out of the four
[Nord Stream pipelines came] back to stream, not four out of the four… There is
no way to be competitive against Russian gas with LNG coming from wherever.”
He continued: “I think it will be interesting to see if
we’ll resist to the cheap Russian gas, or not… I think central Europe will not
fully resist”, reports Reuters.”
If the Russians refused to sell cheap Nord Stream gas to Western Europe, it would completely destroy German industry. The West would be left without the industrial base it needs to build a competitive modern economy and defense. High global energy prices would further fuel inflation in the United States, intensifying political instability there. All of this would benefit China.
Komentarų nėra:
Rašyti komentarą