Why Are Middle-Aged Men Missing From the Labor Market?

 

"Men ages 35 to 44 are staging a lackluster rebound from pandemic job loss, despite a strong economy.

For the past five months Paul Rizzo, 38, has been delivering food and groceries through the DoorDash app. But he spent the first half of 2022 earning no paycheck at all — reflecting a surprising trend among middle-aged men.

After learning last Christmas that his job as an analyst at a hospital company was being automated, Mr. Rizzo chose to stay at home to care for his two young sons. His wife wanted to go back to work, and he was discouraged in his own career after more than a decade of corporate tumult and repeated disappointment. He thought he might be able to earn enough income on his investments to pull it off financially.

Mr. Rizzo’s decision to step away from employment during his prime working years hints at one of the biggest surprises in today’s job market: Hundreds of thousands of men in their late 30s and early 40s stopped working during the pandemic and have lingered on the labor market’s sidelines since. While Mr. Rizzo has recently returned to earning money, many men his age seem to be staying out of the work force altogether. They are an anomaly, as employment rates have rebounded more fully for women of the same age and for both younger and older men.

About 89.7 percent of men ages 35 to 44 were working or looking for work as of November, down sharply from 90.9 percent before the pandemic.

The group’s employment rate showed signs of rebounding last month, but has been unusually depressed on average over the past year.

The decline in labor force participation among middle-aged men has spanned racial groups, but it has been most heavily concentrated among men who — like Mr. Rizzo — do not have a four-year college degree. The pullback comes despite the fact that wages are rising and job openings are plentiful, including in fields like truck driving and construction, where college degrees are not required and men tend to dominate.

Economists have not determined any single factor that is keeping men from returning to work. Instead, they attribute the trend to a cocktail of changing social norms around parenthood and marriage, shifting opportunities, and lingering scars of the 2008 to 2009 downturn — which cost many people in that age group jobs just as they were starting their careers.

“Now, all of a sudden, you’re kind of getting your life together, and if you’re in the wrong industry …” Mr. Rizzo said, trailing off as he discussed his recent labor market experience. “I wasn’t the only one who dropped out. I can tell you that.”

Men have been withdrawing from the labor force for decades. In the years following World War II, more than 97 percent of men in their prime working years — defined by economists as ages 25 to 54 — were working or actively looking for work, according to federal data. But starting in the 1960s, that share began to fall, mirroring the decline in domestic manufacturing jobs.

What is new is that a small demographic slice — men who were early in their careers during the 2008 recession — seems to be most heavily affected.

 “I think there’s a lot of very discouraged people out there,” said Jane Oates, a former Labor Department official who now heads WorkingNation, a nonprofit focused on work force development.

Men lost jobs in astonishing numbers during the 2008 financial crisis as the construction and home-building industries contracted. It took years to regain that ground — for men who were then in their 20s and early 30s and just getting started in their careers, employment rates never fully recovered.

Economists came up with a range of explanations for the men’s slow return to the labor force. After the war on crime of the 1980s and 1990s, more men had criminal records that made it difficult to land jobs. The rise of opioid addiction had sidelined others.

Video games had improved in quality, so staying home might have become more attractive.

 And the decline of nuclear family units may have diminished the traditional male role as economic provider.

Now, recent history appears to be repeating itself — but for one specific age group. The question is why 35- to 44-year-old men seem to be staying out of work and job searches more than other demographics.

Patricia Blumenauer, vice president of data and operations at Philadelphia Works, a work force development agency, said she had observed a dip in the number of men in that age range coming in for services. A disproportionately high share of those who do come in leave without taking a job.

Ms. Blumenauer said that age range is a group “that we’re not seeing show up.”

She thinks some men who lost their blue-collar jobs early in the pandemic may be looking for something with flexibility and higher pay. “The ability to work from home three days a week, or have a four-day weekend — things that other jobs have figured out — aren’t possible for those types of occupations.”

When men don’t find those flexible jobs or can’t compete for them, they might choose to make ends meet by staying with relatives or doing under-the-table work, Ms. Blumenauer said.

The pandemic has probably also slowed America’s already-weak family formation, giving single or childless men less of an incentive to settle into steady jobs, said the economist Ariel Binder. On the flip side, disruptions to schooling and child care meant that some men who already had families may have stopped doing paid work to take on more household tasks.

“So on the one hand you get these men who are just not expecting to have a stable romantic relationship for most of their lives and are setting their time use accordingly,” Dr. Binder said. “Then there are men who are participating in these family structures, but doing so in nontraditional ways.”

Like labor force experts, government data suggest that a combination of forces are at play.

A growing number of men do seem to be taking on more child care duties, time use and other survey data suggests. But a shift toward being stay-at-home dads is unlikely to be the full story: Employment trends look the same for men in the age group who report having young kids living with them and those who don’t.

What clearly does matter is education. The participation decline is more heavily concentrated among people who have not graduated from college, based on detailed government survey data.

Some economists speculate that the disproportionate decline could be because the age group has been buffeted by repeated crises, making their labor market footing fragile. They lost work early in their careers in 2008, faced a slow recovery after and found their jobs at risk again amid 2020 layoffs and an ongoing shift toward automation.

“This group has been hit by automation, by globalization,” said David Dorn, a Swiss economist who studies labor markets.

That fragility theory makes sense to Mr. Rizzo.

He had seen the Navy as his ticket out of poverty in Louisiana and had expected to have a career in the service until he broke his back during basic training. He retired from the military after a few years. Then he pivoted, earning a two-year degree in Georgia and beginning a bachelor’s degree at Arizona State University — with dreams of one day working to cure cancer.

Then the Great Recession hit. Mr. Rizzo had been working nights in a laboratory to afford rent and tuition, but the job ended abruptly in 2009. Phoenix was ground zero for the financial implosion’s fallout.

Frantic job applications yielded nothing, and Mr. Rizzo had to drop out of school. Worse, he found himself staring down imminent homelessness. His tax refund saved him by allowing him and his wife to move back to Louisiana, where jobs were more plentiful. But after they divorced, he hit a low point.

“I had nothing to show for my life after my 20s,” he explained.

Mr. Rizzo spent the next decade rebuilding. He worked his way through various corporate positions where he taught himself skills in Excel and Microsoft SharePoint, married again, had two sons and bought a house.

Yet he was regularly at risk of losing work to downsizing or technology — including late last year. The company he worked for wanted him to move into a new role, perhaps as a traveling salesperson, when his desk job disappeared. But his sons have special needs and that was not an option.

He quit in January. He watched the kids, posted on his investment-related YouTube channel and watched Netflix. He thought he might be able to live on military payments and dividend income, becoming part of the “Financial Independence, Retire Early,” or FIRE, trend. But then the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and markets gyrated.

“I got FIRE, all right,” he said. “My whole portfolio got set on fire.”

Mr. Rizzo turned to DoorDash, earning his first paycheck on July 4. While he is technically back in the labor market, gig work like his isn’t well measured in jobs data. If many men are taking a similar path but do not work every week, they might be overlooked in surveys, which ask if someone worked for pay in the previous week to determine whether they were employed.

Mr. Rizzo is waiting to see what happens to his DoorDash income in an economic pullback before he rules out corporate work forever. Already, other dashers are complaining that business is slowing as people have spent down pandemic savings.

The veteran counts himself fortunate. He knows men in his generation who have struggled to find any footing in the labor market.

“It feels like it’s the after-effects of 2008 and 2009,” he said. “Everyone had to restart their lives from scratch.”"

Kai kurie nedideli skirtumai: Bidenas, Macronas siekia kompromiso dėl prekybos

„Prezidentas Bidenas pareiškė esąs pasirengęs daryti nuolaidas Amerikos sąjungininkams, kurie prieštarauja naujoms JAV subsidijoms Šiaurės Amerikos gamintojams, tačiau po susitikimo su Prancūzijos prezidentu Emmanueliu Macronu jis neįsipareigojo konkretizuoti, kai abu lyderiai  siekė projektuoti vienybę po kelis mėnesius trukusios įtampos.

 

    Bidenas teigė neatsiprašantis dėl JAV infliacijos mažinimo įstatymo, pagal kurį JAV gamintojams skiriamos subsidijos ir mokesčių lengvatos elektra varomoms transporto priemonėms ir kitiems gaminiams, kurie surenkami Šiaurės Amerikoje.

 

    Tačiau jis sakė, kad gali prireikti pakeitimų, kad įstatymas nesukeltų nenumatytų pasekmių.

 

    "Taigi yra pataisymų, kuriuos galime padaryti ir kurie iš esmės palengvina Europos šalių dalyvavimą ir (arba) savarankiškumą. Tačiau tai yra kažkas, ką reikia išsiaiškinti", - žurnalistams per spaudos konferenciją sakė Bidenas Baltuosiuose rūmuose per pirmąjį oficialų jo prezidentavimo valstybinį vizitą. Jis sakė, kad įstatymas nėra skirtas pašalinti sąjungininkus, tokius, kaip Europa. Vietoj to, juo buvo siekiama paskatinti JAV tiekimo grandines, kad atpratintų Ameriką nuo priklausomybės nuo Kinijos produktų.

 

    Naujos subsidijos sukėlė JAV sąjungininkų nusivylimą ir įtemptus santykius su Prancūzija, kurie jau pašlijo po to, kai Bideno administracija pernai pastūmėjo Prancūziją iš kelių milijardų dolerių vertės sutarties dėl povandeninių laivų tiekimo Australijai.

 

    Europos Sąjunga, Pietų Korėja, Japonija ir JK kritikavo elektrinių transporto priemonių nuostatas, teigdamos, kad jos diskriminuoja jų įmones ir pažeidžia Pasaulio prekybos organizacijos taisykles.

 

    Prieš susitikimą E. Macronas išreiškė savo nepasitenkinimą, grupei įstatymų leidėjų pareikšdamas, kad subsidijos kelia grėsmę nulemti investicijų ir darbo vietų gamyboje išėjimą iš Europos.

 

    Po dvišalio susitikimo abu lyderiai įsipareigojo dirbti kartu, kad rastų kelią į priekį, nurodydami esamą JAV ir ES pareigūnų sudarytą darbo grupę, kuri spręstų su įstatymu susijusius klausimus.

 

    „Nusprendėme sinchronizuoti savo požiūrį ir darbotvarkes“, – ketvirtadienį žurnalistams sakė E. Macronas.

 

    Ponai Bidenas ir Macronas nepateikė jokių detalių, kaip gali atrodyti kompromisas, o JAV prezidentas nepateikė jokių požymių, kad atsisakytų subsidijų.

 

    Pasak žmonių, susipažinusių su diskusijomis, abu lyderiai aptarė galimybę JAV sąjungininkams, įskaitant Europos šalis, padaryti išimtis kai kuriems įstatymo vidaus turinio reikalavimams.

 

    Bidenas spaudos konferencijoje užsiminė apie tokio žingsnio tyrimą. Jis pasiūlė, kad Kongresas numatytų, kad nuostata, leidžianti išimtis Meksikai ir Kanadai, šalims, kurios yra sudariusios laisvosios prekybos susitarimą su JAV, apimtų platesnę tautų grupę.

 

    "Tai pridūrė Jungtinių Valstijų Kongreso narys, kuris pripažįsta, kad jis tiesiog turėjo omenyje sąjungininkus. Jis neturėjo omenyje pažodžiui laisvosios prekybos susitarimo. Taigi mes galime daug ką išspręsti", - sakė Bidenas.

 

    Abu lyderiai dvišalio susitikimo metu aptarė daugybę klausimų, įskaitant Rusiją, santykius su Kinija ir energetikos politiką.

 

    Europos lyderiai taip pat susiduria su energijos krize artėjant žiemai. JAV ėmėsi veiksmų, kad padėtų pakeisti Rusiją, kaip vieną didžiausių žemyno gamtinių dujų tiekėjų, tačiau suskystintų gamtinių dujų siuntos buvo brangesnės, o tai įtempė Europos gamybos bazę.

 

    Bidenas sakė esąs atviras susitikimui su Rusijos prezidentu Vladimiru Putinu, tačiau tik tuo atveju, jei V. Putinas parodys, kad yra pasirengęs užbaigti karinę operaciją Ukrainoje.

 

    „Neturiu artimiausių planų susisiekti su V. Putinu“, – sakė J. Bidenas. "Esu pasirengęs pasikalbėti su ponu Putinu, jei iš tikrųjų jis bus suinteresuotas nuspręsti, kad jis ieško būdo užbaigti karinę operaciją. Jis to dar nepadarė."

 

    Ponai Bidenas ir Macronas pakartojo, kad vadovausis Ukrainos prezidento Volodymyro Zelenskio pavyzdžiu, derantis su Rusija. E. Macronas, kuris kartais davė sau tarpininko rolę dėl karinės operacijos, sakė toliau kalbėsiantis su V. Putinu.

 

    „Niekada neraginsime ukrainiečių daryti kompromisą, kuris jiems būtų nepriimtinas“, – sakė Prancūzijos prezidentas.

 

    Bendrame pareiškime ponai Bidenas ir Macronas įsipareigojo teikti „politinę, saugumo, humanitarinę ir ekonominę pagalbą Ukrainai tiek, kiek reikės“.

 

    Abu prezidentai atkreipė dėmesį į tai, ką jie vadino tvirtais JAV ir Prancūzijos ryšiais. „Retkarčiais pasitaiko nedidelių skirtumų, bet niekada iš esmės“, – sakė Bidenas per ketvirtadienio spaudos konferenciją.

 

    Ponai Bidenas ir Macronas per savo privatų susitikimą taip pat ilgai kalbėjo apie Kiniją, sakė pareigūnai.

 

    Prancūzijos lyderis bando nubrėžti kelią Europai, kaip išvengti tarp JAV ir Kinijos pasirinkimo, ir paragino Pekiną vaidinti didesnį vaidmenį derybose su Maskva. Ponas Macronas Prancūzijos pareigūnai sakė, kad jis paaiškino Bidenui pastangas priversti Kinijos prezidentą Xi Jinpingą užmegzti ryšius su Rusija dėl karinės operacijos."

 

1. World News: Biden, Macron Seek Compromise on Trade --- During U.S. state visit, leaders said they would look to tweak North American subsidies
Bisserbe, Noemie; Restuccia, Andrew; Tarini Parti. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 02 Dec 2022: A.7.

Some Slight Differences: Biden, Macron Seek Compromise on Trade

 

"WASHINGTON -- President Biden said he was open to making concessions to American allies who have objected to new U.S. subsidies for North American manufacturers, but he didn't commit to specifics after a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, as the two leaders sought to project unity following months of tensions.

Mr. Biden said he makes no apology for the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides subsidies to U.S. manufacturers and tax incentives for electric vehicles and other products that are assembled in North America.

But he said changes might be needed to ensure the law doesn't have unintended consequences.

"So there's tweaks that we can make that can fundamentally make it easier for European countries to participate, and/or be on their own. But that is something that has to be worked out," Mr. Biden told reporters at a news conference at the White House during the first official state visit of his presidency. He said the law wasn't meant to exclude allies such as Europe. Instead, it was aimed at boosting U.S. supply chains to wean America off its reliance on Chinese products.

The new subsidies have set off frustration among U.S. allies, and strained ties with France that were already fraying after the Biden administration last year pushed France out of a multibillion-dollar contract to supply submarines to Australia.

The European Union, South Korea, Japan and the U.K. have criticized the electric-vehicle provisions, arguing they discriminate against their companies and violate World Trade Organization rules.

Ahead of the meeting, Mr. Macron made his displeasure known, telling a group of lawmakers that the subsidies threatened to attract investments and manufacturing jobs away from Europe.

Following their bilateral meeting, both leaders committed to working together to find a path forward, pointing to an existing task force formed by U.S. and EU officials to work through issues with the law.

"We have decided to synchronize our approaches and our agendas," Mr. Macron told reporters Thursday.

Messrs. Biden and Macron didn't offer any details about what a compromise might look like, and the U.S. president offered no indication that he would abandon the subsidies.

The two leaders discussed the possibility of creating exemptions for U.S. allies, including nations in Europe, to some of the law's domestic content requirements, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Mr. Biden alluded to exploring such a move in the news conference. He suggested that Congress intended that a provision allowing for exemptions for Mexico and Canada, countries that have a free-trade agreement with the U.S., should cover a broader group of nations.

"That was added by a member of the United States Congress who acknowledges that he just meant allies. He didn't mean literally free-trade agreement. So there's a lot we can work out," Mr. Biden said.

The two leaders discussed a range of issues during their bilateral meeting, including Russia, relations with China and energy policy.

European leaders also are facing an energy crisis as winter approaches. The U.S. has stepped in to help replace Russia as one of the continent's biggest natural-gas purveyors, but its shipments of liquefied natural gas have come with higher prices, straining Europe's manufacturing base.

Mr. Biden said he is open to meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but only if Mr. Putin demonstrates that he is willing to bring the military operation of Ukraine to a close.

"I have no immediate plans to contact Mr. Putin," Mr. Biden said. "I'm prepared to speak with Mr. Putin if, in fact, there is an interest in him in deciding he's looking for a way to end the military operation. He hasn't done that yet."

Messrs. Biden and Macron reiterated that they would follow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's lead on negotiating with Russia. Mr. Macron, who has at times cast himself as a mediator concerning the military operation, said he would continue to speak with Mr. Putin.

"We will never urge Ukrainians to make a compromise which would not be acceptable for them," the French president said.

In a joint statement, Messrs. Biden and Macron pledged to provide "political, security, humanitarian, and economic assistance to Ukraine for as long as it takes."

Both presidents pointed to what they called the strong ties between the U.S. and France. "Occasionally we have some slight differences, but never in a fundamental way," Mr. Biden said during Thursday's news conference.

Messrs. Biden and Macron also spoke at length during their private meeting about China, officials said.

The French leader is trying to chart a path for Europe to avoid choosing sides between the U.S. and China, and he has called on Beijing to play a bigger role in talks with Moscow. Mr. Macron briefed Mr. Biden on his efforts to push Chinese President Xi Jinping to engage with Russia over the military operation, French officials said." [1]

1. World News: Biden, Macron Seek Compromise on Trade --- During U.S. state visit, leaders said they would look to tweak North American subsidies
Bisserbe, Noemie; Restuccia, Andrew; Tarini Parti. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 02 Dec 2022: A.7.