Where’s the Boss? Remote Work Is Increasingly for the Rich

"When it comes to remote work, the C-Suite wants workers to do as they say, not as they do.

Marc Benioff, the chief executive of Salesforce, once said, “I don’t work well in an office.”

Which makes one wonder where he was when Salesforce’s employees were ordered to return to the office three or more days a week? Perhaps he was sequestered at his 600-acre ranch in the genteel upcountry of Hawaii’s Waimea district. Or maybe at his oceanfront estate, just down the hill.

In late October, Starbucks — under its newly minted leader, Brian Niccol — warned the coffee company’s corporate employees that they must also return to the office three days a week by January. Yet Mr. Niccol continues to make his primary home in sunny Newport Beach, Calif. Starbucks has provided him with dedicated office space, a local personal assistant and a corporate jet ready to fly him the 1,000 miles to and from the company’s world headquarters in Seattle. A company representative told CNBC that Mr. Niccol will be held to the same three days a week standard.

When the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the world in 2020, many of America’s office workers were suddenly able to work from home, introducing previously unimagined flexibility. They could move to more affordable locales, apply for jobs regardless of location and balance the demands of work and family. This privileged perk, however, opened a new divide, as many essential workers still had to report to their stations.

Now, growing numbers of the white-collar class are under increasing pressure to return, while many corner offices sit empty. The ability to work from home was always economically stratified. Now it is often being reserved for the wealthiest among us.

Research by the Stanford University economist and remote work expert Nick Bloom shows that postpandemic, the number of days people are allowed to work from home correlates to their income. Work-from-home days have fallen by 16 percent for workers earning between $10,000 and $100,000 a year — but only by 5 percent for those making $200,000 or more.

Perhaps that’s why Mr. Bloom found a correlation between income earned and distance from the office. Only 5 percent of employees earning between $10,000 and $50,000 a year work 50 or more miles from their company headquarters, compared with 14 percent earning more than $250,000.

The gap is growing despite research that concludes that working from home can benefit employees and employers alike.

Mr. Bloom found that the practice improves gender mix by increasing the number of women in the work force, expands the labor supply in an otherwise tight market, improves the disability employment gap and supports families and home life. As one LinkedIn poster put it, replying to Mr. Bloom, “Isn’t it amazing what the ability to put in a load of laundry during the workday can do for overall happiness.”

Studies of call centers in China and Turkey that measured fully remote versus on-premise employment found that remote employees had higher performance metrics, including taking fewer sick days and processing more calls.

It seems like companies are ignoring the data. Amazon, a former employer of mine, prides itself on a data-driven culture that asks employees to be “skeptical when metrics and anecdotes differ.” And yet, to support its new edict that employees must return to the office five days a week by the start of the new year, the company issued a letter that had a conspicuous lack of such data. Instead, Amazon’s Web Services chief, Matt Garman, in an all-staff meeting for the division, reportedly leaned on phrases like “I feel” and “we believe.” For a company that values data so highly, the top brass sure are in their feelings.

If the C-Suites are not being driven by data, what is driving them? Studies presented at Stanford University’s October 2024 Remote Work Conference analyzed over 1,200 companies with return-to-office policies, and they found that such orders were more likely to be delivered after a poor financial performance. This suggests the office mania is less about improving company operations and more about reassuring shareholders that leadership means business. Given that those orders also upset longstanding workers to the point of quitting, perhaps they’re also a cloaked way to reduce head count.

The shift from back to the office is not only ungrounded in research, it is also damaging, particularly for people with disabilities and for caregivers. During the pandemic, employment for workers with a disability rose by 22 percent. The economist and Nobel Laureate Claudia Goldin noted in her 2024 Nobel lecture that creating virtual jobs that are akin to their in-office counterparts brightens the professional prospects for caregivers, especially women. Caregivers and people with disabilities shouldn’t have to settle for a lower paid or less desirable role.

Having worked for both Amazon and Starbucks, I’ve heard the frustration from former colleagues facing child-care challenges, grueling commutes and moves across the country. It seems particularly cruel to be hired into a role advertised as fully remote and then told to “return” to an office that’s not even in the same state.

This divide is evident in vacation locales such as Big Sky in Montana and Aspen and Telluride in Colorado, where the rich-and-remote have exacerbated a wealth gap, an affordable housing crisis and changed the character of the country. While epic ski slopes beckon the C-Suite, service workers drive from increasingly further distances to steam lattes and shovel snow. As these towns devolve into the patricians and the plebeians, it’s as if American society is becoming ancient Rome.

Calls for workers to return to the office while company leaders stay remote are particularly tough to swallow, given research showing that it’s the C-Suite that is more ineffective from afar — not the rank and file. Ran Duchin of Boston College and Denis Sosyura of Arizona State University tracked over 900 long-distance chief executives found that they underperform as compared to their on-premise counterparts. The greater the distance between the C.E.O.’s home and the company’s headquarters, the greater the performance gap.

And using a jet to quickly close literal distances only widens a class gap.

Ms. Greenley is a former tech executive currently working on an essay collection." [1]

1. Where’s the Boss? Remote Work Is Increasingly for the Rich.: Guest Essay. Greenley, Rachel.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Dec 20, 2024.

Niekas nenori būti pralaimėjusiu Ukrainoje: todėl Trumpas grasina Vakarų Europai tarifais

 „Ateinantis prezidentas pažadėjo „tarifus iki galo“, nebent Europa pirks daugiau JAV naftos ir dujų. Europos pareigūnai neturi aiškios strategijos, kaip išvengti prekybos karo.

 

 Išrinkto prezidento Donaldo J. Trumpo grasinimai taikyti muitus sąjungininkams ir priešininkams sukėlė neramumus visos Europos įmonėse ir vyriausybėse, sukeldami grumtynes ​​ dėl, pagal jų baimes, transatlantinio prekybos karo.

 

 Jų gimstantys planai, įskaitant kruopščiai saugomas paslaptyje pastangas aukščiausiuose Europos Komisijos lygmenyse, atrodo aktyvesni nei tie, kurie buvo, pirmą kartą D. Trumpui pradėjus eiti pareigas. Tačiau bet kokiems bandymams suformuoti vieningą prekybos frontą gali trukdyti sklerozinė politika visoje Europoje.

 

 Šį mėnesį žlugo ir Prancūzijos, ir Vokietijos vyriausybės. Austrija ir Belgija ilgai po paskutinių rinkimų stengiasi sudaryti valdančias koalicijas.

 

 Ir neatsirado aiškaus sutarimo, kaip reaguoti į tai, ką D. Trumpas gali turėti. Jau dabar atsiranda nesutarimų tarp valdininkų, kurie pasisako už atsakomųjų veiksmų strategiją, jei jis bando įvesti naujus mokesčius Europos eksportui, ir tų, kurie pasisako už derybas.

 

 Ankstyvą penktadienį paskelbtame įraše „Truth Social“ D. Trumpas sakė „pasakęs Europos Sąjungai, kad jie turi padengti savo didžiulį deficitą su Jungtinėmis Valstijomis dideliu mastu mūsų naftos ir dujų pirkimu. Kitu atveju tai yra TARIFAI !!!”

 

 Ekonomistai perspėja, kad prekybos karai paprastai kenkia visoms susijusioms šalims, užkimšdami prekių ir paslaugų mainus ir stabdydami ekonomikos augimą.

 

 Tačiau dėl Europos ekonomikos silpnumo nuo pandemijos pradžios ir politinės suirutės dabar ji gali būti ypač pažeidžiama.

 

 Šių metų prezidento rinkimų kampanijoje D. Trumpas pasakė, kad įves naują 10 ar 20 procentų mokestį visam importui į JAV, nepaisant jo kilmės.

 

 Kartu su miglotais grasinimais nukreipti muitus į Europą, jis taip pat paskelbė tiesioginius perspėjimus Meksikai, Kanadai, Kinijai ir kelioms besivystančioms šalims po jo išrinkimo.

 

 Bet kokie tokie tarifai keltų pavojų iš esmės didžiausiems prekybos santykiams tiek JAV, tiek Europos Sąjungoje, kurios prekėmis ir paslaugomis 2023 m. buvo prekiaujama daugiau, nei 1,5 trilijono JAV dolerių. Praėjusiais metais JAV turėjo prekybos su Europa deficitą ir šiek tiek importavo. daugiau iš jos šalių, nei eksportavo į jas. Europa jau dabar yra viena didžiausių suskystintų gamtinių dujų pirkėjų iš JAV, kuri yra didžiausia pasaulyje tiekėja.

 

 Pirmosios D. Trumpo administracijos metu D. Trumpas įvedė muitus plienui ir aliuminiui iš Europos šalių, pažadėdamas sumažinti prekybos deficitą. Vietoj to, atotrūkis augo.

 

 D. Trumpui grasinant naujais tarifais visame pasaulyje, vadovai ir politiniai lyderiai visoje Europoje taip pat nerimauja dėl bet kokio prekybos įtampos tarp Jungtinių Valstijų ir Kinijos eskalacijos sugėrimo. Tai gali nukreipti pigių prekių eksportą iš JAV parduotuvių į Europos parduotuves.

 

 Pareigūnai Briuselyje ir nacionaliniuose parlamentuose pradeda ieškoti galimų keršto ar alternatyvių strategijų, kurios neapmokestintų amerikiečių.

 

 Pirmosios pastangos Europos Komisijoje, kuri yra Europos Sąjungos administracinė dalis, apima analizę, kokį poveikį tam tikri tarifai turėtų skirtingoms Europos šalims ir sektoriams, teigia aukšto rango Europos diplomatas, norėjęs likti anonimiškas, atsižvelgiant į politinį jautrumą. pokalbį. Grupė diskutuoja, kokiems Amerikos gaminiams gali būti taikomi atsakomieji tarifai.

 

 Tačiau diskusijos yra preliminarios, kaip ir panašus pasirengimas Berlyne ir kitur. Taip yra daugiausia dėl to, kad D. Trumpo prekybos planai lieka neskaidrūs.

 

 Europos Komisijos prekybos pareigūnai nebendravo su valstybėmis narėmis apie galimą atsaką, iš dalies baimindamiesi, kad gali pasirodyti norintys aktyviai įvesti tarifus Amerikai, sakė trys Europos diplomatai, kurie, atsižvelgiant į jautrius klausimus, pageidavo likti anonimiški.

 

 Viena iš teorijų teigia, kad Europos Komisija galėtų elgtis taip, kaip darė per pirmąją D. Trumpo administraciją 2018 m., kai įvedė atsakomuosius tarifus 3,2 mlrd. dolerių. Tai apėmė Viskonsine įsikūrusios Harley-Davidson motociklų ir kitų produktų, įskaitant burboną, žaidimo kortas ir apelsinų sultis, tarifus.

 

 Buvęs Europos Komisijos prekybos direktorius Ignacio García Bercero sakė, kad derybose su D. Trumpu, siekiant išvengti muitų pareigūnai turėtų pasiūlyti padidinti importą iš JAV, ypač energetikos ir gynybos srityse. Tuo pat metu Europos Sąjunga taip pat turi būti pasirengusi įgyvendinti atsakomuosius tarifus.

 

 „Bet kokia strategija turi apimti abu elementus“, – sakė ponas García Bercero, Briuselio tyrimų įmonės „Bruegel“ bendradarbis. „Kitaip nebūtume verti pasitikėjimo derybose“.

 

 Europos pareigūnai jau paskelbė planą padidinti importą iš Jungtinių Valstijų, įskaitant suskystintų gamtinių dujų, siekiant nuraminti D. Trumpą. Europos centrinio banko prezidentė Christine Lagarde lapkričio pabaigoje pasiūlė panašų žingsnį ir perspėjo dėl atsakomųjų muitų.

 

 Kita mintis yra kreiptis į aukščiausią D. Trumpo komandą dėl to, kad Europos įmonės turi JAV gamyklas, ir paaiškinti, kaip bet kokie tarifai gali priversti jas mažinti JAV darbo jėgą, sakė du Europos diplomatai, kurie norėjo likti anonimiški, atsižvelgiant į šios temos jautrumą. Nors Vokietijos pareigūnai ir verslo lyderiai bandė tokį požiūrį per pirmąją D. Trumpo administraciją, tai labai mažai padėjo apsaugoti juos nuo jo tarifų.

 

 Europos įmonės jau svarsto, ar keisti gamybą ar dalį savo tiekimo grandinės, tuo pat metu reikalaudamos kontinentinio atsako, kad paskatintų savo konkurencingumą.

 

 Patrickas Martinas, didžiausios Prancūzijos verslo prekybos grupės Medef prezidentas, teigė, kad Prancūzijos eksportuotojai ieško būdų, kaip apsisaugoti nuo didesnių muitų, dėl kurių gali būti sunkiau konkuruoti Amerikoje ar su Kinijos konkurentais.

 

 „Akivaizdu, kad nesame abejingi Donaldo Trumpo ir jo komandos pranešimams“, – sakė jis. „Europa turi ne nusilenkti, o tvirtinti savo galią ir pajėgumus“.

 

 P. Martinas teigė, kad Prancūzijos įmonių reakcija į tarifus skirsis priklausomai nuo jų sektoriaus ir dydžio. Trisdešimt aštuonios iš 40 didžiausių Prancūzijos įmonių turi gamybos patalpas Meksikoje ir JAV, įskaitant tokius automobilių gamintojus, kaip Stellantis ir Renault-Nissan, kosmetikos milžinę L'Oréal ir Danone maisto grupę.

 

 Kai kurie galėtų pabandyti perkelti gamybą į Jungtines Valstijas, o tai derėtų su D. Trumpo nurodytu kitu tarifų tikslu.

 

 Prancūzijos bendrovė „Airbus“, didžiausia komercinių lėktuvų gamintoja, turinti gamyklą Pietų Karolinoje ir dirbanti su tiekėjais Meksikoje, praėjusį mėnesį pareiškė, kad visas naujas tarifų išlaidas perkels savo oro linijų klientams.

 

 Kiti Prancūzijoje, pavyzdžiui, Burgundijos vyno gamintojai, negali perkelti gamybos į Jungtines Valstijas ir prisiims didžiausią bet kokių muitų naštą, sakė p. Martinas.

 

 Christian Diemer, aukščiausias Vokietijos prekybos grupės BDI pareigūnas, Ohajo valstijoje ir Europoje valdantis specialius varžtus gaminantį verslą, sakė, kad jam labiau rūpi Amerikos muitai Kinijai.

 

 Jei JAV tarifai pastūmėtų naują Kinijos produktų bangą link Europos, tai dar labiau pakenktų Europos įmonėms, kurios jau dabar kovoja su du ar tris kartus aukštesnėmis energijos kainomis, nei Jungtinėse Valstijose, sakė jis.

 

 Kai kurie vadovai lažinasi, kad stiprus JAV doleris kompensuotų tarifų poveikį europietiškoms prekėms. Kai dolerio vertė yra aukšta, palyginti su kitomis valiutomis, amerikiečiai gali lengviau nusipirkti importuojamų prekių, kurios faktiškai tampa pigesnės.

 

 Kiti tikisi, kad jei D. Trumpas įves tarifus, galbūt, pavyks išsiderėti dėl išimčių.

 

 Dažniausiai verslo grupės perspėja savo narius pasiruošti tam, kas gali būti ateityje.

 

 „Įmonės turi būti iniciatyvios ir vykdyti įvairius verslo planavimo scenarijus – dabar“, – neseniai savo nariams sakė Miuncheno ir Aukštutinės Bavarijos prekybos ir pramonės rūmai Vokietijoje." [1]

 

Trumpas mano, kad sankcijų Rusijai panaikinimas galėtų padėti sustabdyti konfliktą Ukrainoje, kuris tampa dar vienu gėdingu pralaimėjimu JAV. Tarifai gali priversti Vakarų Europą pirkti brangias suskystintas gamtines dujas iš JAV, net ir nesant sankcijų Rusijai. Puiki idėja.

1. Trump Is Threatening Europe With Tariffs. Is It Ready? Tankersley, Jim; Gross, Jenny;
Alderman, Liz; Eddy, Melissa.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Dec 20, 2024..

Nobody Wants to Be a Loser in Ukraine: This Why Trump Is Threatening Western Europe With Tariffs

 

"The incoming president promised “tariffs all the way” unless Europe bought more U.S. oil and gas. European officials have no clear strategy for avoiding a trade war.

President-elect Donald J. Trump’s threats of tariffs on allies and adversaries alike have unsettled companies and governments across Europe, setting off a scramble for what they fear could be a trans-Atlantic trade war.

Their nascent plans, including a closely guarded effort at the top levels of the European Commission, appear to be more proactive than what they were the first time Mr. Trump took office. But any attempt to form a united front on trade could be hampered by the sclerotic politics across much of Europe.

The French and German governments both collapsed this month. Austria and Belgium are struggling to form governing coalitions long after their most recent elections.

And no clear consensus has emerged on how to respond to whatever Mr. Trump might have in store. Divisions are already emerging between officials who favor a strategy of retaliation if he tries to impose new taxes on European exports and those who favor negotiation.

In a post on Truth Social early Friday, Mr. Trump said he had “told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!”

Economists warn that trade wars generally hurt all parties involved, clogging the exchange of goods and services and reducing economic growth.

But the weakness of Europe’s economy since the start of the pandemic — and the political turmoil — could leave it particularly vulnerable to damage now.

In this year’s presidential campaign, Mr. Trump said he would impose a new tax of 10 or 20 percent on all imports to the United States, regardless of their origin.

Along with the vague threats to target Europe on Friday, he also issued direct warnings for Mexico, Canada, China and several emerging-market countries since his election.

Any such tariffs would endanger what is effectively the largest trading relationship for both the United States and the European Union, which traded more than $1.5 trillion in goods and services in 2023. Last year, the United States had a trade deficit with Europe, importing slightly more from the countries than it exported to them. Europe is already one of the biggest buyers of liquefied natural gas from the United States, which is the world’s largest supplier.

During the first Trump administration, Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum from European countries, pledging to reduce the trade deficit. Instead, the gap grew.

As Mr. Trump threatens new tariffs around the world, executives and political leaders across Europe also worry about absorbing aftershocks of any escalation in trade tensions between the United States and China. Those could divert a wave of low-cost exports from U.S. stores to those in Europe.

Officials in Brussels and national Parliaments are beginning to brainstorm possible retaliation or alternate strategies that do not involve taxing Americans.

The early effort within the European Commission, the administrative arm of the European Union, includes analyses of what impact certain tariffs would have on different European countries and sectors, according to a senior European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity given the political sensitivity of the conversation. The group is discussing what American products to potentially target for tariffs in retaliation.

But the discussions are preliminary, as are similar preparations in Berlin and elsewhere. That’s largely because Mr. Trump’s trade plans remain opaque.

European Commission trade officials have not communicated with member states about a possible response, in part out of fear of appearing to want to proactively impose tariffs on America, said three European diplomats who spoke on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivities.

One theory is that the European Commission could act as it did during the first Trump administration in 2018, when it implemented retaliatory tariffs on $3.2 billion of goods made by companies in areas where Mr. Trump had strong support. That included tariffs on motorcycles by Harley-Davidson, based in Wisconsin, and on other products including bourbon, playing cards and orange juice.

Ignacio García Bercero, a former trade director at the European Commission, said officials should offer to increase imports from the United States, especially in energy and defense, as part of negotiations with Mr. Trump to avoid tariffs. At the same time, the European Union also needs to be ready to implement retaliatory tariffs.

“Any strategy needs to include both elements,” said Mr. García Bercero, a fellow at Bruegel, a research firm in Brussels. “Otherwise we would not be credible in a negotiation.”

European officials have already floated a plan to increase imports from the United States, including of liquefied natural gas, to placate Mr. Trump. Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, suggested a similar move in late November and warned against retaliatory tariffs.

Another idea is to appeal directly to Mr. Trump’s top team about how European companies have U.S. factories and to explain how any tariffs could force them to shrink their U.S. workforces, said two European diplomats speaking on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the subject matter. Although German officials and business leaders tried that approach during Mr. Trump’s first administration, it did very little to protect them from his tariffs.

European companies are already weighing whether to shift production or parts of their supply chain, while pressing for a continental response to kick-start their competitiveness.

Patrick Martin, the president of Medef, France’s biggest business trade group, said that French exporters were looking at ways to protect themselves from higher tariffs that could make it harder to compete in America or with Chinese rivals.

“We are obviously not indifferent to the announcements of Donald Trump and his team,” he said. “Europe must not bow down but assert its power and capabilities.”

Mr. Martin said that the reaction of French companies to tariffs would differ depending on their sector and size. Thirty-eight of the largest 40 French companies have production facilities in both Mexico and the United States, including automakers like Stellantis and Renault-Nissan, the cosmetics giant L’Oréal and the Danone food group.

Some could try to shift production to the United States, a move that would dovetail with Mr. Trump’s stated goal for tariffs.

The French company Airbus, the largest commercial airplane manufacturer, which has a plant in South Carolina and works with suppliers in Mexico, said last month that it would pass along any new tariff costs to its airline customers.

Others in France, such as producers of Burgundy wine, can’t move production to the United States and will bear the brunt of any tariffs, Mr. Martin said.

Christian Diemer, a top official of the German trade group BDI who owns a business making special screws in Ohio and in Europe, said that he was more concerned about American tariffs on China.

If U.S. tariffs pushed a new wave of Chinese products toward Europe, it would further hurt European companies already struggling with energy prices that are two or three times as high as they are in the United States, he said.

Some executives are betting that a strong U.S. dollar would offset the impact of tariffs on European goods. When the dollar’s value is high compared with other currencies, Americans are able to buy more easily imported goods, which effectively become cheaper.

Others are hoping that if Mr. Trump imposes tariffs, they may be able to negotiate exemptions.

Mostly, business groups are warning their members to brace for what could be ahead.

“Companies need to be proactive and run through different scenarios for their business planning — now,” the Chamber of Commerce and Industry for Munich and Upper Bavaria, in Germany, recently told its members." [1]

Trump thinks that removing sanctions on Russia could help to stop conflict in Ukraine that is becoming one more embarrassing loser’s debacle for the USA. Tariffs could force Western Europe to buy expensive liquefied natural gas from the USA even in the absence of sanctions on Russia. Great idea.

1. Trump Is Threatening Europe With Tariffs. Is It Ready? Tankersley, Jim; Gross, Jenny;
Alderman, Liz; Eddy, Melissa.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Dec 20, 2024..