"An axis uniting China, Russia, Iran and North Korea -- dubbed Crink by some Western officials -- has emerged from the conflict in Ukraine, a loose alliance united by a mutual disdain for the U.S.-led world order.
That coalition's cooperation steadily has deepened as the four have exchanged food, oil, arms, diplomatic support and military assistance in a manner designed to remain beyond the reach of Western sanctions.
Now, President Trump's determination to end the conflict creates a moment of truth for the entente. If he brokers a cease-fire, the bonds between the four could loosen.
But a failure to do so -- along with greater U.S. pressure on Iran and China -- could unintentionally deepen it, says John Park, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, who focuses on Indo-Pacific security and economic statecraft.
Cooperation between the four nations isn't new. Russia and Iran allied to support the Assad regime in Syria, while China has long been North Korea's main patron, and the relationship between Beijing and Moscow has been deepening for years.
But the conflict multiplied those ties and helped knit the quartet together. The four are "promoting alternative systems to compete with the United States, primarily in trade, finance and security," according to a recent assessment by U.S. spy agencies.
Russia's need to fuel its conflict effort has put Moscow at the center of the entente. It has turned to Chinese companies for goods critical for making the arms it needs in Ukraine.
North Korea -- itself long under international sanctions -- has sent huge quantities of munitions, as well as more than 12,000 soldiers to help Russia. Ukraine said last month that half of Russia's ammunition now comes from North Korea. That support has helped Russia largely expel Ukrainian troops from its Kursk region. Lately, Pyongyang has engaged diplomatically with Moscow more than it has with Beijing.
Iran has provided Russia with drone expertise, giving it a critical boost in a conflict dominated by the use of unmanned aerial vehicles. Tehran has sent Shahed drones as well as blueprints and technical assistance for Russia to increase its own drone manufacturing.
Military cooperation has gone hand-in-hand with economic ties. Shut out by the West, Russia has redirected much of its energy exports to China, while Beijing -- which doesn't support the U.S.-led sanctions against Moscow -- has in turn stepped up exports of consumer goods that Russia no longer receives from the West.
As their economies draw closer, China and Russia have increasingly used their own currencies for their trade, shunning the U.S. dollar. That makes them less vulnerable to sanctions, while feeding both nations' ambitions to boost their currencies' influence in world trade.
In return for military support, Russia has allowed in thousands of North Korean workers, who earn valuable hard currency that is sent back to the regime.
Moscow has sent technicians to support Pyongyang's spy-satellite program, South Korean officials said. Russia has also boosted oil shipments to North Korea.
As the world's second-largest economy, China provides the economic ballast for the quartet, making it the indispensable partner for the entente. As a net importer of energy, China is a major market for Iranian and Russian energy. About 90% of Iranian oil goes to China.
China represents more than 98% of North Korea's official trade with the outside world, giving it great leverage over Pyongyang.
"Without China, the coalition is anemic," said Christopher S. Chivvis, a former U.S. national intelligence officer for Europe, now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
An end to the conflict in Ukraine could drain the partnership of its staying power. Russia could try to mend relations with Europe, which would loosen its reliance on China.
China -- which is integrated in the global trading system in a way that the other three aren't -- may decide that supporting the axis isn't worth jeopardizing its relations with the West.
If Moscow backs away from cease-fire talks, Trump has threatened more sanctions and tariffs on Russia.
Washington has also renewed its "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran, threatening military action if Iran doesn't rein in its nuclear program. U.S.-China relations are also tense.
Trump this past week further increased tariffs on imports from China -- lifting the average rate to around 70%, according to economists.
If left unchecked, the nexus between Russia and North Korea, which both possess nuclear arms, and Iran, which is nearly able to produce an atomic bomb, could prove a serious threat to the West, said Chivvis.
"What we want to avoid is the deepening scenario, where they do actually build on the cooperation that we have seen over the last couple of years," he said.” [1]
1. World News: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea have united to defy Western sanctions. Martin, Timothy W; Li, Ming; Ruiz, Roque. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 05 Apr 2025: A12.
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