"Informal preparations have begun in Brussels to
include a point in a potential peace agreement with Moscow on the resumption of
EU imports of Russian gas via a pipeline under the Baltic Sea," warns the
Financial Times.
According to the British daily, German diplomats would be
open to such a possibility, as would their Hungarian colleagues.
A similar
prospect, however, has sparked outrage from representatives of unnamed Central
European countries, who are exporting mostly wild raspberries [1].
"I hope that European leaders will learn a lesson from events in Ukraine and decide never to restore gas imports via
this pipeline," President Andrzej Duda told the BBC in Davos a few days
ago.
In September 2022, both lines of Nord Stream 1 and one of
the two lines of Nord Stream 2 were blown up. Ukrainian services with help of some bigger countries including Poland (exporter of those wild raspberries) are suspected
of this.
On Wednesday, the Danish authorities agreed to rebuild the destroyed
infrastructure at a cost of over USD 600 million. The official reason is the
negative impact of the destroyed pipeline on the environment. In a recent
article, the scientific journal Nature warned that about 14 percent of the
Baltic Sea waters are polluted by methane released from Nord Stream 1 and 2.
The prospect of resuming gas imports through both pipelines
was discussed in early January by the well-known German economic journalist
Wolfgang Münchau. - Some Germans will pressure the government to rebuild these
gas pipelines. However, this will probably not happen. The authorities will
remain cautious: too many German politicians have lost their reputation due to
contacts with Russia. However, it is quite possible that imports of Russian
liquefied gas will increase. Germany is like a drug addict. It has become
dependent on the export of industrial products and will do everything to make
it competitive. It will feed this monster for as long as possible, he said.
Sick economy on the Rhine. Will Germany return to business
with Russia?
When Angela Merkel dictated painful reforms to Spain, she
herself neglected them in her own country. Today, the Federal Republic is
wondering how to get the sick economy on the Rhine back on its feet.
Germany is teetering on the brink of recession: according to
the IMF, this year the country is expected to grow at a rate of just 0.8
percent (compared to 3.5 percent for Poland). One of the reasons is the high
energy prices caused not only by the cut-off of Russian gas imports, but also
by the completion of the nuclear power plant phase-out under pressure from the
Greens, who are part of Olaf Scholz's coalition government.
The raw material from Russia was partly compensated by the
import of American liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, it is three to four times
more expensive to deliver to Europe than in the States itself. This makes
German industry uncompetitive on international markets. Partly because of
Europe's boycott of Russian gas, the US has become the world's largest exporter
of LNG.
Donald Trump demanded that Angela Merkel close Nord Stream
in 2019
Domestic political dynamics are also important. Alice
Weidel, the candidate for chancellor of the Alternative for Germany, said this
week: "We will bring back Nord Stream. You can be sure of that." According
to the polling aggregator Politico, the AfD already enjoys the support of 21
percent of voters, the most of all parties except the CDU (30 percent).
Unlike America, the EU has never imposed a ban on Russian
gas imports, although the volume of purchases from Moscow has fallen
dramatically. Despite this, last year EU countries purchased a total of 17
million tons of Russian gas, mainly liquefied. The largest purchases were by
France, Belgium and Spain.
Even if the Americans have a great business interest in
Europe not buying raw materials from Russia, this is primarily a strategic
matter. In December 2019, at the NATO summit in Brussels, Donald Trump attacked
Angela Merkel in harsh words over the Nord Stream project. He pointed out that
thanks to it, Putin has the means to arm himself, and at the same time, the
United States must protect Berlin from an attack from Moscow.
Now it seems that Trump's goal is to push Putin onto the
defensive by tightening sanctions and lowering global oil and gas prices. According
to the US president, this should persuade the Kremlin to make concessions,
especially when it comes to Western security guarantees for Ukraine. However,
it will probably take many months for this strategy to bear fruit, if a peace
agreement with Russia is reached this year at all."
1. https://mokslas-studijos-ekonomika.blogspot.com/2025/01/lustai-ar-paukstiena-dirbtinis.html
Komentarų nėra:
Rašyti komentarą