"Koidula, Estonia -- Vladimir Putin says the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's expansion is one of the "root causes" of the conflict in Ukraine. Estonians beg to differ. "This narrative that Putin is trying to sell, that NATO is some kind of danger to Russia, this is bull----, sorry," says Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna. "We understand that."
His argument: If Russia fears NATO, why would it divert its troops from the border here to Ukraine? Mr. Tsahkna says that when he served as defense minister in 2016-17, Russia had some 120,000 troops across the border, "ready to go within 24 hours." These days, "it's pretty empty." Among the units Russia shifted from NATO's eastern flank to Ukraine in 2022 was the elite 76th Guards Air Assault Division, headquartered in Pskov, roughly 20 miles from Estonia.
Mr. Putin also diverted Russia's sole maneuver brigades that covered its Arctic border with Europe, as well as other troops in Murmansk, which is near Norway and Finland. Kyiv aspires to join NATO but has no realistic prospect. "We never observed a redeployment back to Murmansk," says George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War.
If Russia genuinely saw a NATO threat, an observer would be able to see "fixed obstacles" and "active patrolling" along the border with Estonia, says Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. Along the forested border I visited, the only fences and patrols I saw between crossings were Estonian, and at one point I could have walked into Russian territory unimpeded. Estonian border guards told me that the area I visited was one of many where Russia lacks border fortifications. Reckless Spanish college students recently wandered into Russia for a selfie near the Estonian village of Popovitsa.
Gen. Hodges says if NATO harbored aggressive intentions, it would engage in "sabotage, destruction of infrastructure, all these kinds of illegal activities, violations of airspace." While "none of this is happening on the Russian side of the border," last spring the Russians removed buoys in the Narva River that demarcate the water border with Estonia and used a spy balloon to peer across. They conduct constant GPS jamming near the border, says Egert Belitsev, director general of Estonia's Police and Border Guard Board. Last spring Finnair had to suspend flights to the south-central Estonian city of Tartu for a month because of signal interference.
Since 2022 Estonia has significantly restricted entry from Russia, but those with dual citizenship or other legal status in Europe can still cross.
Border guards have found suspicious belongings on those crossing, including mobile phones, memory cards, notes and photographs of strategic locations in Estonia. (Particularly embarrassing are smelly outdoor toilets in many places of Estonia. How dare they to take pictures of that? (K.))
Estonia is working hard to ensure that it has the means to surveil 100% of the whole border, every meter and centimeter. The Estonians have installed fencing, cameras and radars. Border guards are learning to use drones to improve situational awareness, and they constantly patrol forested areas between official border crossings. Meanwhile, "we are in the beginning of building the Baltic Defense Line," which will include "around 600 bunkers [in] pre-positioned locations," says Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur." [1]
This why the Estonian economy is in deep crisis. Money is gone out of it to the stupidity at the border.
1. Why Is the Estonian Border So Quiet? Melchior, Jillian Kay. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 06 May 2025: A15.
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