Last day of US-Russia nuclear pact threatens ‘nuclear competition like we’ve never seen before’

 

“The last remaining nuclear arms pact between Russia and the United States expires on Thursday, removing any restrictions on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time in more than half a century.

 

The collapse of the New START treaty would pave the way for what many fear is an unfettered nuclear arms race.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he is ready to stick to the treaty’s limits for another year if Washington follows suit, but President Donald Trump has been reluctant to make a firm commitment to extending it.

 

In talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, Putin stressed that “we will act thoughtfully and responsibly in this situation,” said Yuri Ushakov, a Kremlin adviser.

 

The START treaty expires on Thursday, formally freeing Moscow and Washington from a host of restrictions on their nuclear arsenals.

 

Moscow remains “open to exploring ways for dialogue and ensuring strategic stability,” Ushakov told reporters.

 

Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to maintain nuclear arms limits and include China in arms control talks, a White House official said on Monday, speaking on condition of anonymity, not authorized to speak publicly. The official said Trump would make a decision on nuclear arms control “on his own schedule.”

 

Beijing has rejected any restrictions on its smaller but growing nuclear arsenal.

 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that the world would be a more dangerous place without limits on the U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles.

 

China likely to join the race

 

Experts have long expressed concern about the expiration of New START, warning that it could spark a new arms race between Russia and the United States, fuel global instability and increase the risk of nuclear conflict.

 

The failure to agree to preserve the treaty’s limits is likely to lead to more weapons deployments, said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Washington-based Arms Control Association.

 

“We are at a point where both sides, after this treaty expires, could increase the number of nuclear weapons deployed on each side for the first time in about 35 years,” Kimball told the AP. “That would open the door to an unfettered, dangerous three-way arms race, not just between the United States and Russia, but also with China getting involved, which is also expanding its smaller but still deadly nuclear arsenal.”

 

Kingston Reif of the US-based non-profit RAND Corporation, a former deputy assistant secretary of defence, also warned that “without predictability in the treaty, each side may be encouraged to plan for the worst-case scenario or to increase its arsenal to show strength and resolve or to seek leverage in negotiations.”

 

Putin has repeatedly threatened Russia’s nuclear power since sending troops into Ukraine in February 2022, warning that Moscow was ready to use “all means” to protect its interests. In 2024, he signed an updated nuclear doctrine that softens the circumstances under which nuclear weapons could be used.

 

Compliance checks suspended during COVID pandemic

 

The New START treaty, signed in 2010 by then-US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, set a limit of 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 deployed and ready-to-use missiles and bombers for each side. The treaty was originally set to expire in 2021, but was extended for another five years.

 

The pact includes extensive inspections of facilities to monitor compliance, but inspections were suspended in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and have never been resumed.

 

In February 2023, Putin suspended Moscow’s participation in the treaty, arguing that Russia could not allow Americans to inspect its facilities at a time when Washington and its NATO allies openly declare Moscow’s defeat in Ukraine as a goal. The Kremlin has stressed that it is not withdrawing from the pact entirely and has pledged to abide by the nuclear arms limits set out in it.

 

In September, when he proposed extending New START limits for another year to give both sides time to agree on a new treaty, Putin said that the pact's end would be a destabilizing factor and could encourage nuclear proliferation.

 

Rose Gottemoelle, the chief U.S. negotiator for the pact and a former deputy secretary general of NATO, said that extending the treaty would have served U.S. interests.

 

"Extending New START limits for one year would not harm any vital interests of America. "The United States is taking steps in response to China's growing nuclear arsenal," she said in an online discussion last month.

Previous Pacts

 

The New START Treaty was the latest in a long line of nuclear arms reduction pacts between the United States and Russia. The line began with the SALT I treaty, signed in 1972 by then-US President Richard Nixon and Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev, the first attempt to limit the countries' arsenals.

 

The 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) imposed restrictions on countries' missile defense systems until US President George W. Bush withdrew the United States from the pact in 2001, despite Moscow's warnings. The Kremlin has called Washington's efforts to build an anti-missile shield a major threat, saying it would weaken Russia's nuclear deterrent by giving the US the ability to shoot down its intercontinental ballistic missiles.

 

In response to In response to the US missile shield, Putin ordered the development of the nuclear-tipped Burevestnik cruise missile and the nuclear-powered Poseidon underwater drone. Last year, Russia announced that it had successfully tested the Poseidon and Burevestnik and was preparing to deploy them.

 

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, signed in 1987, was also terminated in 2019. The treaty banned ground-based missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. Such missiles were considered particularly destabilizing because of their short flight time to their targets, leaving only a few minutes to decide on a retaliatory strike and increasing the risk of nuclear war due to false alarms.

 

In November 2024, and again last month, Russia attacked Ukraine with a conventional version of its new medium-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik. Moscow says it has a range of 5,000 kilometers and can reach any European target with nuclear or conventional warheads.

“Nuclear competition like we have never seen in our lifetimes”

 

Without agreements limiting nuclear arsenals, Russia “will quickly and firmly counter any new threats to our security,” said Medvedev, who signed the New START treaty and is now deputy head of Putin’s Security Council.

 

“If we are not heard, we act proportionately to restore parity,” he said recently.

 

Medvedev cited Trump's proposed "Golden Dome" missile defense system among the potentially destabilizing steps, emphasizing the close connection between offensive and defensive strategic weapons.

 

Trump's plan has alarmed Russia and China, Kimball said.

 

“They are likely to respond to Golden Dome by increasing the number of offensive weapons to overcome the system and ensure that they have the ability to respond with nuclear weapons,” he said, adding that offensive capabilities can be developed more quickly and cheaply than defensive ones.

 

Trump’s October announcement that the United States would resume nuclear testing for the first time since 1992 also unnerved the Kremlin, which last conducted such a test in the 1990s, when the Soviet Union still existed. Putin has said that Russia will respond in kind if the United States resumes testing, which is banned by a global treaty signed by both Moscow and Washington.

 

Chris Wright, the U.S. energy secretary, said in November that such tests would not involve nuclear explosions.

 

Kimball said that resuming U.S. testing would “punch a huge hole in the global nuclear risk reduction system,” prompting Russia to respond in kind and tempting others, including China and India, to follow suit.

 

He said the world is moving towards accelerated strategic competition, with rising costs and declining stability in nuclear relations between the US, Russia and China.

 

“This marks a potential turning point into a much more dangerous period of global nuclear competition, the likes of which we have not seen in our lifetimes,” Kimball added.”