Is Lithuania undergoing “demographic suicide”?

 

In order for the Lithuanian language, culture and nation to survive, a woman must give birth to more than two children on average, because not all women can give birth. Now a woman in Lithuania gives birth to less than one child. The total birth rate is so catastrophic.

 

“Preliminary data from the State Data Agency show that 17.5 thousand children were born in Lithuania last year. The total birth rate fell to 1. Economist Žygimantas Mauricas assessed this as “demographic suicide”. And Gediminas Karoblis, professor at the Norwegian University of Science andTechnology, Dean of the Faculty of Humanities at Vytautas Magnus University, calculates that if we subtract those who were born abroad, we would get an even lower rate – 0.99, i.e. less than 1.”

Despite this we shoot at the sea from very expensive HIMARS. So that everyone fears us before we become extinct. Why is everyone laughing at us?

 

Based on recent data and expert commentary, Lithuania is indeed facing a severe, long-term demographic crisis that many analysts, including economist Žygimantas Mauricas, have characterized as a form of "demographic suicide"

. While the nation is not literally vanishing instantly, the combination of extremely low birth rates, an aging population, and decades of emigration has created a profound structural, economic, and existential challenge to the long-term sustainability of the Lithuanian nation and culture.

Here is a breakdown of the demographic situation based on the points you raised:

1. The Numbers: "Catastrophic" Birth Rates

 

    Birth Count: Preliminary data indicated that around 17,500 to 19,000 children were born in Lithuania in 2023–2024, the lowest number since the country regained independence in 1990.

    Fertility Rate: The total fertility rate in Lithuania fell to 1.18 in 2023.

    The 0.99 Calculation: The figure of 0.99 mentioned by experts (when excluding births to Lithuanian citizens abroad) refers to the fertility rate within the territory of Lithuania, which is well below the 2.1 rate needed for natural population replacement.

    Natural Decline: More people are dying than are being born, with a natural population decrease of roughly 16,000–20,000 people annually.

 

2. Is it "Demographic Suicide"?

Economist Žygimantas Mauricas and others use this term because the replacement rate (2.1) is not being met, leading to a shrinking and rapidly aging population.

 

    Consequences: A shrinking population means a smaller workforce, a higher burden on the pension system, and potential strain on the healthcare system.

    Context: This is not unique to Lithuania, as many EU countries face low fertility, but Lithuania's is among the lowest.

    Recent Trends: The population decrease has been somewhat offset recently by immigration rather than births, with more people returning to Lithuania than leaving.

 

3. Reasons Behind the Decline

 

    Economic Pressure: High living costs, housing affordability, and low wages in some regions make starting a family difficult.

    Social Shifts: Women are pursuing careers and choosing to have children later, or fewer of them.

    Emigration Legacy: Decades of young people leaving have created a skewed, older demographic structure.

 

4. The Defense/Military Metaphor (HIMARS)

The juxtaposition of buying high-end military equipment (like HIMARS) while facing a demographic decline highlights a fundamental dilemma: maintaining state security against external threats while the internal human capital shrinks.

 

    Defense Perspective: Lithuania views strong defense spending as vital for national survival against existential threats (dream of Landsbergis to attack China, anybody?), believing a secure state is a prerequisite for any demographic improvement.

    Economic Tension: Investing in defense limits the budget for social programs that might otherwise encourage higher birth rates, such as increased child benefits or housing support.

 

In summary, the situation is not a cruel joke, but a severe crisis that the Lithuanian government is trying to address through a mix of immigration policies, economic reforms, and security investments.