U.S. Will Stockpile Critical Minerals to Counter China. Chinese Are Checking Every Case, When Selling These Materials. Will Chinese Sell Into This Pile?

 

 

Not likely. Since needed technologies are not available in the West for at least five years, it seems that this stockpile is just a publicity stunt:

 

On February 2, 2026, the Trump administration announced the launch of "Project Vault," a $12 billion strategic stockpile of critical minerals designed to counter reliance on China for essential materials used in defense, automotive, and technology industries.

 

While China has previously instituted strict export controls and inspections—essentially checking every case of critical materials like gallium, germanium, and antimony destined for the U.S. in late 2024—it is unlikely that China will directly sell to this new U.S.-controlled, strategic, state-backed stockpile.

 

The Strategy: "Project Vault"

 

    Purpose: The initiative aims to create a secure, domestic supply of materials like rare earths, gallium, and cobalt, mitigating the risks of Chinese export restrictions.

    Partnership: The effort is not purely government-owned; it involves private capital, with trading firms Hartree Partners, Traxys North America, and Mercuria Energy Group handling procurement.

    Mechanism: The stockpile acts as an emergency reserve where U.S. manufacturers can draw down supplies during shortages, similar to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

 

Will China Sell to the Pile?

It is highly improbable that China will intentionally supply a U.S. government-supported stockpile designed to reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese materials.

 

    Stricter Controls: In late 2024 and 2025, China tightened controls on critical minerals to "safeguard national security interests," effectively choking off supplies to the U.S. for specific items.

    Dual-Use Licensing: Chinese regulations require strict end-user and end-use reviews. Any material sold to a U.S. government-connected entity ("Project Vault") would likely fail to get export approval.

 

    Market Manipulation: China has used its dominance (mining 60-90% of certain materials) to influence prices and supply. Supplying a U.S. stockpile would counteract their own strategic leverage.

 

The Likely Reality

 

    Indirect Sourcing: While China likely won't sell directly to "Project Vault," Chinese entities might still sell to global middlemen, which could indirectly end up in the supply chain. However, the "check every case" policy suggests that such leakage would be heavily scrutinized.

 

    Increased Scrutiny: The U.S. project focuses on sourcing materials domestically or from allies (like Australia) rather than relying on Chinese suppliers, explicitly to avoid the current "chokehold".

 

    Trade Tension: The stockpile is seen as a move in an "economic war," with China’s restrictions being a direct response to U.S. technology sanctions.

 

Therefore, "Project Vault" is a publicity initiative designed to make the U.S. look less reliant on Chinese willingness to sell, making it counterproductive to expect Chinese participation in filling it.

 

The idea is discussed very seriously in the press:

 

“WASHINGTON -- The Trump administration is developing a roughly $12 billion stockpile of critical minerals aimed at helping U.S. manufacturers navigate future supply shortages and overcome future reliance on China for rare earths and metals.

 

The expected stockpile -- called Project Vault -- will be the fruition of roughly $1.67 billion in private capital along with a $10 billion loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank to assemble the minerals from automakers, manufacturers and tech companies.

 

The move comes after Beijing has used its dominance over the supply chain for critical-minerals processing to squeeze key U.S. industries.

 

Beijing has imposed licensing requirements for U.S. companies to purchase rare-earth magnets made with critical minerals, allowing it to limit the supply of the critical components for the defense and automotive sectors. China controls about 90% of the processing capability for rare-earth minerals, according to the International Energy Agency.

 

The venture was earlier reported by Bloomberg.

 

The critical-minerals stockpile would be comparable to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a stockpile of crude oil first established in the 1970s.” [1]

 

There are many suppliers of oil that comes out of ground most often by itself. The case with rare earths of China is different.

 

1. U.S. News: U.S. Will Stockpile Critical Minerals to Counter China. Thomas, Ken; Bade, Gavin.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 Feb 2026: A4.