Inside View: AI in Trump's 3-D Chess Match

 

“War, and politics, ain't beanbag. Instead, there's some serious 3-D chess being played. Venezuela and Iran have been decapitated. Not coincidentally, these were major oil sources for China. And Cuba. And North Korea via China. Perversely, oil prices heading toward $100 a barrel helps Russia afford its work in Ukraine. But oops, Iran is a major supplier of drones to Russia. That's "check" in 3-D chess.

 

A real win scenario here would have two components. One, the U.S. gets Western-friendly regimes in Venezuela and Iran to pump oil like crazy, adding to the global supply not subject to sanctions. Two, the U.S. achieves postwar control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows. Could prices then head toward $40 a barrel? Likely. This would cripple the Russia. Check.

 

Either way, China is squeezed. I recently toured Pearl Harbor and was reminded that Imperial Japan relied on the U.S. for about 80% of its oil. When America froze Japanese assets in July 1941, it was effectively an oil embargo, and the dominoes began falling. Does history rhyme?

 

But forget about oil. What I've said for decades may finally be geopolitically true: Silicon is the new oil. China relied on the U.S. (designed here and in Israel, made in Taiwan) for the most advanced artificial-intelligence processors, mainly Nvidia's, prior to export limits. Can the Chinese assure an alternative source of advanced GPUs? Not really. They are years behind. Washington should treat the most advanced AI chips as it does uranium, on the banned military items list. AI is a weapon.

 

Will China invade Taiwan for its silicon?

 

Unlike oil fields, silicon is literally sand on the beach.

 

The secret sauce to making chips is the process and the people, not the buildings. A Chinese invasion would disrupt Hsinchu, a city packed with fabs churning out Nvidia and Apple chips, likely tanking the world economy. This would also tank China's economy, maybe irreparably. That's quite the deterrent.

 

As are photos of a blindfolded Nicolas Maduro in cuffs, and, all the more so, watching the fatal destruction of Ali Khamenei's compound on TikTok. Add photos of Iran's no-longer-floating navy.

 

The U.S. and Israel completely own Iranian airspace. There are reports Iran has deployed Chinese HQ-9B air defenses. They appear worthless. If I were China, I'd hold off on Taiwan. Another check for the West.

 

Then there's AI. It helped the U.S. capture Mr. Maduro and decapitate Iran -- presumably by analyzing the movement of people and weapons to select targets. AI is a master pattern-recognition system. The U.S. is also reportedly using it for battle scenario simulations.

 

This and precise targeting can minimize civilian casualties. This makes Anthropic's squabble with the Pentagon over the use of its tools even more disturbing and shortsighted.

 

War is different now. Jimmy Carter's April 1980 failed Iranian hostage rescue mission would likely succeed with today's tech. Mr. Maduro's capture proved that. Donald Rumsfeld's doctrine of limited forces with advanced air power and high-precision weapons may finally be right. It's no longer shock and awe but rock and withdraw.

 

Limited boots on the ground, but instead, selective intelligence assets -- the Israelis hacked Tehran's traffic cameras to track leadership.

 

Call it sneakers on the ground (think 1992 Robert Redford film). We'll see if this precision-war paradigm works and how quickly new, more Western-compliant regimes re-enter the global marketplace. I'm hopeful. Twelve- or 50-day wars beat yearslong engagements.

 

More chess pieces are flying around. Iran sent retaliatory missiles to 11 countries. That's 10 potential customers for Israel's Iron Dome and U.S. Patriot missile-defense systems or sales replenishing interceptors. Let's condition this on joining the Abraham Accords.

 

Money transfers are another chess piece: The Journal reports that the crypto company Binance, run by recently pardoned Changpeng Zhao, was used to funnel $1.7 billion to Iran-backed groups, including Houthi militants. Block this. Oddly, that's the same amount of cash President Obama shipped to Iran in 2016.

 

Oil and gas often end up in the hands of autocrats -- more like kleptocrats. Khamenei reportedly oversaw a $95 billion financial empire. On the other hand, silicon flourishes in free markets, places with property rights -- America, Taiwan, South Korea and (for equipment) the Netherlands.

 

Freedom is always worth it. With silicon as the new oil, powering AI, wars may be more deterministic. AI won't only run battle simulations, but war simulations. If only Mr. Maduro and Khameini had war-gamed the true capabilities of our advanced aircraft and precision weapons vs. their feeble air defenses. Others surely will. ChatGPT Plus costs $20 a month.

 

Will this be AI's peace dividend? Cold War strategists thought nuclear wars would never happen because of MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction. Scary, but it has worked, so far. With gigawatts of AI simulations, adversaries can simulate their own demise against us -- SAD, Strongly Assured Destruction -- and negotiate peace instead. Checkmate.” [1]

 

Sadly, you need not only AI. You need also your own intelligence to see what is happening. Iran did not give up yet. Iran is not decapitated. Checkmate.

 

As of March 9, 2026, the Iranian regime has demonstrated institutional resilience by swiftly appointing a successor despite the loss of its top leadership. While the initial wave of U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28 successfully "decapitated" the core of the Iranian government, the regime has since moved to stabilize itself and continue its military campaign.

 

New Leadership and Succession

 

    Mojtaba Khamenei Appointed: On March 8, 2026, the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader.

 

    Continuity of Strategy: His selection is viewed as a victory for hardline factions and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iranian officials have pledged allegiance to him, signaling a commitment to the "luminous path" of the Islamic Revolution.

 

    Decentralized Command: In response to the strikes on central decision-making institutions, the regime has devolved power to lower-level and provincial officials to ensure continued state functions.

 

Ongoing Military Activity

 

    Regional Retaliation: Iran has not "given up." It continues to launch ballistic missiles and drones against Israel and regional targets.

 

    Targeting U.S. Assets: Iranian drones have successfully struck U.S. and partner facilities, including a command center in Kuwait (killing six U.S. soldiers) and a desalination plant in Bahrain.

 

    Strategic Endurance: The IRGC remains in control of the battlefield, executing pre-planned contingencies aimed at outlasting U.S. and Israeli forces through energy market disruption and a "contest of endurance".

 

Remaining Capabilities

 

    Missile and Drone Arsenal: Although the U.S. and Israel claim to have destroyed roughly 75-90% of Iran's ballistic missile launchers, intelligence estimates suggest Iran still retains up to 50% of its overall missile program and an even higher percentage of its one-way attack drones.

 

    Proxies and Internal Control: Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah continue to launch attacks, and internal security forces (though degraded) are still operating checkpoints and enforcing a nationwide internet blackout to maintain domestic control.

 

1. Inside View: AI in Trump's 3-D Chess Match. Kessler, Andy.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 09 Mar 2026: A15.