Saudi-Led Oil Producers Set for More Output Cuts, Actively Supporting President Vladimir Putin of Russia

"A group of large oil producers led by Saudi Arabia said Sunday they would cut more than a million barrels of output a day starting next month, a surprise move that upset Washington and could raise crude prices amid concerns about the global economy.

The output cut adds to a reduction of 2 million barrels a day agreed to in October by the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a group of other producers led by Russia. Taken together, the output cuts amount to about 3% of the world's petroleum production taken off the market in seven months.

The decision marks another moment when Saudi Arabia, once a reliable U.S. security partner, is setting energy policy at odds with Washington as the West confronts Russia. The U.S. has sought to reduce revenue for Russia -- one of the biggest oil and gas producers in the world -- through sanctions and a price cap, but OPEC+ moves helped prop up crude prices in much of 2022.

Russia nominally is part of Sunday's action, but its output cut -- 500,000 barrels a day -- was announced weeks ago and was likely involuntary, as the damage to its economy from sanctions deepens. Russian officials said they were extending their production cut for the entire year. Russian government revenue has been squeezed, the country's biggest exports, gas and oil, have lost major customers, and the ruble is down more than 20% since November against the dollar.

The production cut will hit an oil market that was widely seen as tightly balanced between supply and demand, meaning it could swing prices up. If there are higher prices, it could stoke inflation and complicate decisions for central bankers, who are caught between trying to tame rising prices and propping up a banking system in turmoil.

The White House doesn't view production cuts as a good idea at the moment given the uncertainty in the market, the National Security Council said in a statement Sunday.

"We're focused on prices for American consumers, not barrels, and prices have come down significantly since last year, more than $1.50 per gallon from their peak last summer," the NSC said. "We will continue to work with all producers and consumers to ensure energy markets support economic growth and lower prices for American consumers."

Saudi Arabia said it would shoulder most of the output cuts, pledging to cut production by a further 500,000 barrels a day starting in May through the end of the year. The announcement was unusual in that it didn't involve many members of the OPEC cartel or the larger group with Russia called OPEC+, with just a handful of countries promising lower production levels.

According to people familiar with the decision, it was negotiated primarily between the Saudis and Russia to get ahead of a global slowdown and raise prices to fund Saudi Arabia's ambitious domestic projects and replenish Russia's reserves.

The oil producers announced their decision less than a month after a bank run led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, raising recession fears. The Saudis were among the biggest losers in the ensuing crisis, with their recently acquired, nearly 10% stake in Credit Suisse Group AG losing almost all its value after a run on the bank's shares.

Oil prices had been trending downward since late last year on global recession fears, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, nearing $70 a barrel last month.

Prices have come back up to close to $80 a barrel in recent days after supply disruptions in Iraq, but some in OPEC see oil demand taking a hit in a recession. The price moved over $85 a barrel after the announcement, before falling slightly.

Saudi Arabia's state press service called Sunday's production cut "a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market."

The decision surprised analysts who follow OPEC and Saudi moves closely.

"Given the preventive nature of OPEC decisions, there is clearly something OPEC knows about demand trends and inventories that we have yet to discover fully in overall supply and demand balances," said Christyan Malek, global head of energy strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Ole Hansen, an oil analyst at Denmark's Saxo Bank, said the decision to cut production again reflected concerns over the U.S. economy, where interest rates are widely expected to increase.

The Saudis likely feel more comfortable cutting output to raise prices because U.S. production is no longer as nimble as it once was, he said.

Saudi Arabia and Russia were joined by OPEC members Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Algeria. Outside OPEC, Oman and Kazakhstan agreed to reduce output.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country's de facto ruler, is in the midst of a plan to use his country's gusher of oil revenue to transform its economy, rework its landscape and upend its conservative culture. As prices hit $100 a barrel last year, the kingdom accelerated plans for its so-called gigaprojects, which include a new city in the desert, as well as Red Sea resorts and a built-from-scratch tourism industry.

The kingdom's energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman -- the crown prince's half brother -- has said the country is more focused on the future now and on delivering Prince Mohammed's projects. He has been among the officials implementing what is known as a Saudi First economic policy, consolidating power in OPEC and promising last year to act quickly if he saw the market turning in the wrong direction.

Prince Abdulaziz has been concerned that traders and hedge funds were shorting oil, meaning they took positions betting that oil prices would fall, and he appeared to have decided to fight back, according to people familiar with the matter.

Riyadh's cuts announced in October ratcheted up tensions with the Biden administration, a few months after the president's trip to Saudi Arabia to heal relations. At the time, the White House accused OPEC+ of actively supporting President Vladimir Putin of Russia.” [1]

What Lithuanian Broiler is doing? Why is he named Minister of Foreign Affairs? All our house of cards is falling down.

1.  Saudi-Led Oil Producers Set for More Output Cuts, Actively Supporting President Vladimir Putin of Russia
Faucon, Benoit; Said, Summer.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 03 Apr 2023: A.1.

Japonija pažeidė naftos kainų viršutinę ribą

    „TOKIJAS – JAV sutelkė savo sąjungininkus Europoje už 60 dolerių už barelį ribą, perkant rusišką žalią naftą, tačiau viena artimiausių Vašingtono sąjungininkų Azijoje dabar perka naftą didesnėmis kainomis.

 

     Japonija privertė JAV sutikti su išimtimi, sakydama, kad jos reikia, norint užtikrinti prieigą prie Rusijos energijos. Ši nuolaida rodo Japonijos priklausomybę nuo iškastinio kuro, o tai, kai kurių analitikų teigimu, prisidėjo prie Tokijo dvejonių dėl Ukrainos paramos.

 

     Nors daugelis Europos šalių sumažino savo priklausomybę nuo Rusijos energijos tiekimo, Japonija per pastaruosius metus suaktyvino Rusijos gamtinių dujų pirkimą. Japonija yra vienintelė septynių šalių grupė, kuri nepateikė Ukrainai mirtinų ginklų, o ministras pirmininkas Fumio Kishida buvo paskutinis G-7 lyderis, apsilankęs Ukrainoje po pastarųjų įvykių.

 

     Ponas Kishida sakė, kad G-7 viršūnių susitikimas, kurį jis rengia šią gegužę savo gimtajame mieste Hirošimoje, parodys solidarumą su Ukraina. Tokijas pareiškė, kad yra įsipareigojęs remti Kijevą ir negali siųsti ginklų dėl ilgalaikių eksporto apribojimų, kuriuos ministrų kabinetas sau nustatė.

 

     Naftos pirkimas, nors ir nedidelis ir JAV įgaliotas, reiškia JAV vadovaujamų pastangų įvesti pasaulinę 60 dolerių už barelį viršutinę ribą Rusijos žalios naftos pirkimui, sunkumus.

 

     Viršutinė riba veikia, nes naftą perkančios šalys, net jei jos nėra suderintos su JAV, paprastai turi naudotis draudimo ir kitomis JAV ar vienos iš jos sąjungininkių įmonių teikiamomis paslaugomis. G-7, Europos Sąjunga ir Australija susitarė dėl taisyklių, draudžiančių šioms bendrovėms teikti paslaugas, jei Rusijos naftos pirkėjas moka daugiau nei 60 dolerių už barelį.

 

     Šalys pernai iki rugsėjo 30 d. suteikė išimtį naftos dydžiui, kurį Japonija pirko iš projekto Sachalin-2 Rusijos Tolimuosiuose Rytuose.

 

     Japonijos ekonomikos, prekybos ir pramonės ministerijos pareigūnas sakė, kad Tokijas nori užtikrinti prieigą prie pagrindinio Sachalin-2 produkto – gamtinių dujų, kurios yra suskystintos ir siunčiamos į Japoniją. „Mes tai padarėme, siekdami stabilaus energijos tiekimo Japonijai“, – sakė pareigūnas.

 

     Jis sakė, kad nedidelis kiekis žalios naftos išgaunamas kartu su gamtinėmis dujomis Sachalin-2 ir turi būti parduodamas, kad būtų užtikrinta, jog suskystintųjų gamtinių dujų arba SGD gamyba tęstųsi. „Kaina sprendžiama abiejų šalių derybomis“, – sakė jis.

 

     Rusijai tenka beveik 10% Japonijos importuojamų gamtinių dujų, daugiausia iš Sachalino-2, o Japonija pernai nupirko 4,6% daugiau, nei užpernai.

 

     Tai yra kontrastas su Vokietija, kuri prieš įvykius 55 % gamtinių dujų importo rėmėsi Rusija ir išgyveno visišką nutraukimą dėl greito importo infrastruktūros rekonstrukcijos. Vokietijos ekonomika pernai augo greičiau, nei Japonijos, o tai paneigia Vokietijos nuosmukio, kurį sukėlė Rusijos dujų tiekimo nutraukimas, prognozes.

 

     "Nėra taip, kad Japonija negali išsiversti be šito. Jie gali. Jie tiesiog nenori", - sakė Temple universiteto Japonijoje profesorius Jamesas Brownas. Prof. Brownas, tyrinėjantis Rusijos ir Japonijos santykius, sakė, kad Japonija galiausiai turėtų pasitraukti iš Sachalino projektų, „jei jie tikrai rimtai nori paremti Ukrainą“ [1].

 

Kodėl lietuviškas kvailas viščiukas - broileris Japoniją neatakuoja? Vokietijai tiesiog pasisekė. Žiema buvo šilta ir, su Covid kovojusiai, Kinijai nereikėjo daug dujų. Dabar situacija normalizavosi, Vokietijai (kartu su jos satelite Lietuva) šakės. Ko ko ko, ar tu nežinai ko? Vokietijos vadovas Scholzas yra toks pat durnas, kaip mūsų Broileris. Na o Vokietijos užsienio reikalų ministrė, buvusi prostitutė, Annalena Charlotte Alma Baerbock visai minkšta: ji vis sukasi 360 laipsnių kampu, todėl atsiduria vis toje pačioje vietoje  ir stebisi, kodėl taip čia išeina. Vokietijoje nėra nei vieno IT specialisto, kad jai paaiškintų, kodėl taip gaunasi.

 

1.  World News: Japan Breaches Oil-Price Cap
Landers, Peter.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 03 Apr 2023: A.6.

Japan Breaches Oil-Price Cap

"TOKYO -- The U.S. has rallied its European allies behind a $60-a-barrel cap on purchases of Russian crude oil, but one of Washington's closest allies in Asia is now buying oil at prices above the cap.

Japan got the U.S. to agree to the exception, saying it needed it to ensure access to Russian energy. The concession shows Japan's reliance on Russia for fossil fuel, which some analysts said contributed to a hesitancy in Tokyo to back Ukraine more fully.

While many European countries have reduced their dependence on Russian energy supplies, Japan has stepped up its purchases of Russian natural gas over the past year. Japan is the only Group of Seven nation not to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was the last G-7 leader to visit Ukraine after recent events.

Mr. Kishida has said the G-7 summit he is hosting this May in his hometown of Hiroshima will demonstrate solidarity with Ukraine. Tokyo has said it is committed to supporting Kyiv and can't send weapons because of longstanding export restrictions the cabinet has imposed on itself.

The oil purchases, while tiny and authorized by the U.S., represent a break in the unity of U.S.-led efforts to impose a global $60-a-barrel cap on purchases of Russian crude oil.

The cap works because oil-buying nations, even if they aren't aligned with the U.S., generally need to use insurance and other services from companies based in the U.S. or one of its allies. The G-7, the European Union and Australia have agreed to rules forbidding those companies from furnishing services if a buyer of Russian oil is paying more than $60 a barrel.

The nations last year granted an exception to the cap through Sept. 30 for oil purchased by Japan from the Sakhalin-2 project in Russia's Far East.

An official of Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said Tokyo wanted to ensure access to Sakhalin-2's main product, natural gas, which is liquefied and shipped to Japan. "We have done this with an eye toward having a stable supply of energy for Japan," the official said.

He said a small quantity of crude oil is extracted alongside the natural gas at Sakhalin-2 and needs to be sold to ensure liquefied natural gas, or LNG, production continues. "The price is decided by negotiations between the two parties," he said.

Russia accounts for nearly 10% of Japan's natural-gas imports, most of it from Sakhalin-2, and the quantity bought by Japan last year was 4.6% greater than in the previous year.

That marks a contrast with Germany, which relied on Russia for 55% of its natural-gas imports before the events and survived a complete cutoff through a quick remodeling of its import infrastructure. Germany's economy grew last year faster than Japan's, bucking forecasts of a German recession triggered by the cutoff of Russian gas.

"It's not as if Japan can't manage without this. They can. They simply don't want to," said James Brown, a professor at Temple University's Japan campus. Prof. Brown, who studies Russia-Japan relations, said Japan should move to withdraw from the Sakhalin projects eventually "if they're really serious about supporting Ukraine."” [1]

Why doesn't Lithuanian stupid broiler chicken attack Japan? Germany just got lucky. The winter was warm, and China, struggling with Covid, didn't need much gas. Now the situation has normalized, Germany (together with its satellite Lithuania) will have it difficult. The German leader Scholz is as stupid as our Broiler. Well, the German foreign minister, former prostitute, Annalena Charlotte Alma Baerbock is quite soft: she keeps turning 360 degrees, so she always ends up in the same place and wonders why she ends up here. There is not a single IT specialist in Germany to explain to her why this happens.

 

1.  World News: Japan Breaches Oil-Price Cap
Landers, Peter.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 03 Apr 2023: A.6.

Alkoholikė Suomijos ministrė pirmininkė Sanna Marin pralaimėjo

 "Suomijos ministrė pirmininkė Sanna Marin patyrė pralaimėjimą sekmadienį vykusiuose visuotiniuose rinkimuose, likus kelioms dienoms iki šalies įstojimo į NATO, po kampanijos, kurioje dominavo ekonominiai ir neseniai įvestų sankcijų Rusijai sukrėtimai.

 

     Petteri Orpo, centro dešinės Nacionalinės koalicijos partijos lyderis, paskelbė pergalę ir, suskaičiavus beveik visus balsus, turėtų surinkti apie 20,8 proc. Ponios Marin socialdemokratų partija atsidūrė trečioje vietoje, surinkusi 19,9% balsų, nedaug atsilikdama nuo dešiniosios populistinės suomių partijos, kuri surinko 20% (iki šiol geriausio jos rezultato).

 

     J. Orpo tokį rezultatą pavadino „stipriu mandatu mūsų politikai“. Atsižvelgiant į tai, kad nė viena partija nėra pakankamai didelė, kad suteiktų daugumą be valdančių partnerių, Suomija dabar pradeda derybas, vadovaujama pono Orpo, kad sudarytų valdančiąją koaliciją.

 

     Jis paliko atviras savo galimybes ir gali bandyti sudaryti koaliciją su p. Marin socialdemokratais arba su Riikka Purra vadovaujama kraštutinių dešiniųjų suomių partija, kuri daugiausia agitavo prieš imigraciją.

 

     Nepaisant to, kad prarado daugumą, M. Marin partija padidino savo rinkėjų skaičių nuo praėjusių rinkimų.

 

     „Tai tikrai geras pasiekimas, nors šiandien nebaigiau pirma“, – savo vakarėlyje Helsinkyje kalbėjo M. Marin. 

 

„Demokratija kalbėjo, Suomijos žmonės atidavė savo balsą, o demokratijos šventė visada yra nuostabus dalykas“, – sakė ji.

 

     Rezultatas neturės įtakos Suomijos įstojimui į Šiaurės Atlanto sutarties organizaciją, o tai žymi naują šalies kursą po dešimtmečius trukusio neprisijungimo.

 

     Ponia Marin tapo jauniausia pasaulyje, dirbanti ministre pirmininke, kai 2019 m. prisiekė, būdama 34 metų. Socialdemokratų lyderė vadovavo penkių moterų partijų lyderių vyriausybinei koalicijai, iš kurių keturios tuo metu buvo jaunesnės, nei 35 metų.

 

     Nors užsienyje mėgaujasi garsenybės statusu, namuose ji yra populiari, nors ir poliarizuojanti figūra. Daugelis suomių jai plojo už tai, kad suvaldė šalį per pandemiją, kaip vieną mažiausiai nukentėjusių tautų Europoje. Tačiau jos kritikai nerimavo dėl didėjančios valstybės skolos jai vadovaujant." [1]

 

1. World News: Finland's Premier Loses a Tight Race
Sune Engel Rasmussen.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 03 Apr 2023: A.11.