Saudi-Led Oil Producers Set for More Output Cuts, Actively Supporting President Vladimir Putin of Russia

"A group of large oil producers led by Saudi Arabia said Sunday they would cut more than a million barrels of output a day starting next month, a surprise move that upset Washington and could raise crude prices amid concerns about the global economy.

The output cut adds to a reduction of 2 million barrels a day agreed to in October by the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a group of other producers led by Russia. Taken together, the output cuts amount to about 3% of the world's petroleum production taken off the market in seven months.

The decision marks another moment when Saudi Arabia, once a reliable U.S. security partner, is setting energy policy at odds with Washington as the West confronts Russia. The U.S. has sought to reduce revenue for Russia -- one of the biggest oil and gas producers in the world -- through sanctions and a price cap, but OPEC+ moves helped prop up crude prices in much of 2022.

Russia nominally is part of Sunday's action, but its output cut -- 500,000 barrels a day -- was announced weeks ago and was likely involuntary, as the damage to its economy from sanctions deepens. Russian officials said they were extending their production cut for the entire year. Russian government revenue has been squeezed, the country's biggest exports, gas and oil, have lost major customers, and the ruble is down more than 20% since November against the dollar.

The production cut will hit an oil market that was widely seen as tightly balanced between supply and demand, meaning it could swing prices up. If there are higher prices, it could stoke inflation and complicate decisions for central bankers, who are caught between trying to tame rising prices and propping up a banking system in turmoil.

The White House doesn't view production cuts as a good idea at the moment given the uncertainty in the market, the National Security Council said in a statement Sunday.

"We're focused on prices for American consumers, not barrels, and prices have come down significantly since last year, more than $1.50 per gallon from their peak last summer," the NSC said. "We will continue to work with all producers and consumers to ensure energy markets support economic growth and lower prices for American consumers."

Saudi Arabia said it would shoulder most of the output cuts, pledging to cut production by a further 500,000 barrels a day starting in May through the end of the year. The announcement was unusual in that it didn't involve many members of the OPEC cartel or the larger group with Russia called OPEC+, with just a handful of countries promising lower production levels.

According to people familiar with the decision, it was negotiated primarily between the Saudis and Russia to get ahead of a global slowdown and raise prices to fund Saudi Arabia's ambitious domestic projects and replenish Russia's reserves.

The oil producers announced their decision less than a month after a bank run led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, raising recession fears. The Saudis were among the biggest losers in the ensuing crisis, with their recently acquired, nearly 10% stake in Credit Suisse Group AG losing almost all its value after a run on the bank's shares.

Oil prices had been trending downward since late last year on global recession fears, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, nearing $70 a barrel last month.

Prices have come back up to close to $80 a barrel in recent days after supply disruptions in Iraq, but some in OPEC see oil demand taking a hit in a recession. The price moved over $85 a barrel after the announcement, before falling slightly.

Saudi Arabia's state press service called Sunday's production cut "a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market."

The decision surprised analysts who follow OPEC and Saudi moves closely.

"Given the preventive nature of OPEC decisions, there is clearly something OPEC knows about demand trends and inventories that we have yet to discover fully in overall supply and demand balances," said Christyan Malek, global head of energy strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Ole Hansen, an oil analyst at Denmark's Saxo Bank, said the decision to cut production again reflected concerns over the U.S. economy, where interest rates are widely expected to increase.

The Saudis likely feel more comfortable cutting output to raise prices because U.S. production is no longer as nimble as it once was, he said.

Saudi Arabia and Russia were joined by OPEC members Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Algeria. Outside OPEC, Oman and Kazakhstan agreed to reduce output.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country's de facto ruler, is in the midst of a plan to use his country's gusher of oil revenue to transform its economy, rework its landscape and upend its conservative culture. As prices hit $100 a barrel last year, the kingdom accelerated plans for its so-called gigaprojects, which include a new city in the desert, as well as Red Sea resorts and a built-from-scratch tourism industry.

The kingdom's energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman -- the crown prince's half brother -- has said the country is more focused on the future now and on delivering Prince Mohammed's projects. He has been among the officials implementing what is known as a Saudi First economic policy, consolidating power in OPEC and promising last year to act quickly if he saw the market turning in the wrong direction.

Prince Abdulaziz has been concerned that traders and hedge funds were shorting oil, meaning they took positions betting that oil prices would fall, and he appeared to have decided to fight back, according to people familiar with the matter.

Riyadh's cuts announced in October ratcheted up tensions with the Biden administration, a few months after the president's trip to Saudi Arabia to heal relations. At the time, the White House accused OPEC+ of actively supporting President Vladimir Putin of Russia.” [1]

What Lithuanian Broiler is doing? Why is he named Minister of Foreign Affairs? All our house of cards is falling down.

1.  Saudi-Led Oil Producers Set for More Output Cuts, Actively Supporting President Vladimir Putin of Russia
Faucon, Benoit; Said, Summer.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 03 Apr 2023: A.1.