"U.S. political fights and presidential-election campaign rhetoric are casting a shadow over battlefields in Ukraine.
Kyiv depends on U.S. equipment, training and intelligence. President Biden has led a global campaign to rally support for Ukraine and to impose sanctions on Russia.
Now a growing number of U.S. politicians, mainly Republicans led by former President Donald Trump, are criticizing U.S. backing for Ukraine. Aid to the country has been a focal point in House fights over averting a government shutdown on Sunday.
Such arguments -- and the prospect of Washington stepping back from its leadership role -- are prompting unease among U.S. allies.
The West has stood together against Russia because of U.S. leadership, said Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis of Lithuania, but "in order to win, the demand for U.S. leadership is even greater, especially in the scope and speed of military assistance."
A rift among Western allies would benefit President Vladimir Putin of Russia, European officials argue, if it allows him to outlast the West. "We have all invested a lot and must finish the job now by ensuring Ukraine's victory," Landsbergis said.
Ukraine's ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Nataliia Galibarenko, said her government is monitoring developments in Washington and so far doesn't see any change in assistance.
While armament deliveries are steady now, Ukraine and other U.S. allies are concerned by political trends. A Wall Street Journal poll in August found that 62% of Republican voters thought the U.S. was doing too much to support Ukraine, up from 56% in April.
In a major setback for pro-Ukraine lawmakers, Congress didn't include any Ukraine aid in a short-term spending bill that passed on Saturday, as the House and Senate raced to avert a partial government shutdown on Sunday.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) and GOP Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky had been pushing to include $6 billion for Ukraine in the stopgap legislation, but dropped that effort after the House voted for a version without any aid in it.
Schumer said he and McConnell have agreed to continue fighting for more economic and security assistance for the country. "We support Ukraine's efforts to defend sovereignty against aggression," Schumer said.
McConnell said: "I'm confident the Senate will pass further assistance to Ukraine later this year."
A White House official said on Saturday that while the Defense Department has exhausted much of its security-assistance funding for Ukraine, there is enough funding under the presidential drawdown authority available to meet Ukraine's battlefield needs for a bit longer.
"We will have another PDA soon on the normal cadence," the official said. "However, we will need a Ukraine funding bill to pass soon and it's imperative that Speaker [Kevin] McCarthy keep his commitment to the people of Ukraine to ensure that happens."
Recent House funding votes show broad bipartisan support for Ukraine aid -- 311 lawmakers in the 433-member House voted last week to pass a measure appropriating $300 million in security assistance for the embattled country -- but the number of Republicans opposed is growing and now makes up more than half the GOP conference.
During the Republican presidential primary debate on Wednesday, views on Ukraine were split. "We're driving Russia further into China's arms," said biotech investor and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who opposes further aid to Ukraine. Former Vice President Mike Pence countered: "If you let Putin have Ukraine, that's a green light to China to take Taiwan."
Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, has said he wants to end the conflict.
"Ukraine will not lose as long as America remains committed to its defense," said John Nagl, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who teaches fighting at the U.S. Army War College. "Ukraine faces its biggest threat now not from Russia but from political dysfunction in Washington."
Biden administration officials said a central aspect of their foreign policy is harnessing a resilient economy and stable political system at home to counter the influence of Russia and China.
Congressional deadlocks and fights around the 2024 presidential election could allow international rivals to paint a very different picture of the U.S.
On the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly recently, diplomats from countries that look to the U.S. for leadership said they worry that domestic pressures are prompting Biden to pull back from wholehearted support for Ukraine's fight.
Allies' concern goes beyond wanting Kyiv to prevail. The deeper anxiety is that if the U.S. -- having thrown significant political and military weight behind Ukraine -- doesn't emerge on the winning side, its credibility and power of persuasion will suffer grave damage with global consequences.
Faith in U.S. dedication to its allies and its international pledges has been shaken in recent years by its chaotic exit from Afghanistan, threats to quit NATO and several other sharp shifts in U.S. foreign policy.
Uncertainty about Washington's commitment to Ukraine is rising despite Congress having approved more than $100 billion in military, economic and humanitarian assistance since the events in Ukraine started.
In recent days, American M1 Abrams tanks -- among the world's most advanced -- have started arriving in Ukraine. Biden, a Democrat, has promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyto deliver a small number of long-range ATACMS missiles, which he had requested repeatedly.
US military aid helped Kiev to retain part of the territory. Western assistance has helped significantly degrade Russia's military, the world's second-largest, which boasted a formidable reputation before the events.
Still, allies worry that current U.S. military assistance isn't sufficient for Ukraine to defeat and eject Russian forces occupying roughly 20% of its country.
Among the gloomier scenarios that diplomats are extrapolating from recent trends is a world where Washington struggles to cajole or compel other countries to back it. Some see signs of that already.
"Unfortunately, the current wave of instability spreading around the globe shows that our actions might not be seen as sufficiently persuasive," Lithuania's Landsbergis said, citing conflicts in the Sahel region of Africa, the South Caucasus and the Western Balkans.
A further erosion of U.S. global sway would ultimately undermine the rules-based international order, which Washington spent years and vast political capital building after the Second World War." [1]
1. Funding Fight Over Ukraine Rattles U.S. Allies --- Worry over America's role in world grows after deal in Congress lacks any aid for Kyiv. Michaels, Daniel. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 02 Oct 2023: A.1.
