War in Mideast Challenges U.S. Defense Strategy.

TEL AVIV -- The war between Hamas and Israel is forcing the Biden administration to send more forces and military capabilities back into the region, redirecting U.S. policy on the Middle East when they had been hoping to focus on potential threats from China and Russia.

Fearing that the conflict set off by Hamas's Oct. 7 attack on Israel could widen, the Biden administration has re-established some of its military footprint in the region.

The conflict could force the U.S. to rethink how it uses its military in the Middle East and is a test for how the Pentagon could continue to support Ukraine and keep its focus on China, which the Defense Department says is its top long-term priority.

This sudden turnaround comes as the U.S., which spent two decades fighting insurgencies in the Middle East and Central Asia, was starting to tackle a new era of power competition with China and Russia. The surge in Middle East violence and the intensive American push to prevent the conflict from spreading could eclipse longer-term U.S. efforts to focus on the Indo-Pacific and to buttress the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's ability to deter Russia.

President Biden has insisted that the U.S. has the global reach and military resources to handle the Gaza crisis and support Ukraine.

Some former military commanders say the strategic importance of the Middle East means the U.S. must maintain a more substantial day-to-day presence.

"Our posture in the region does make a difference," said Frank McKenzie, the retired Marine general who led U.S. Central Command from 2019 to 2022. "Iran carefully watches what we do. When we draw down our forces and couple that with inept policy messaging that our singular focus is now on the Asia Pacific, we don't give assurance to our friends in the region and we do give confidence to our potential enemies in the region."

The U.S. has so far sent two aircraft-carrier strike groups, consisting of roughly a dozen ships and 12,000 military personnel, redeploying assets in Europe to the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Pentagon had reduced naval assets in the region in recent years, moving more of its resources toward the Asia Pacific to combat threats from China. Similarly, the Pentagon has moved A-10 attack aircraft and F-15 and F-16 jet fighters back to the Persian Gulf, beefing up the air assets it has rotated through the region in recent years. The Defense Department also is preparing to potentially deploy roughly 2,000 troops to the region.

Other resources are being tapped for the conflict. Israel has so far received several thousand 155mm artillery rounds since Hamas launched its attack, defense officials said. This comes shortly after the U.S. effectively emptied its stockpiles of 155mm rounds kept in Israel to meet Ukraine's demand for the highly sought artillery.

Though the White House says it has no information that Tehran orchestrated the attack on Israel, the U.S. has made clear that it is rushing aircraft carriers and warplanes to the region to dissuade Tehran and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia Iran supports, from widening the war. The Wall Street Journal reported that there was a meeting between Hamas and Iranian security officials to help plan the attack.

For years, a succession of administrations, both Republican and Democratic, sought to focus on efforts to counter China's growing influence and military, only to have those plans complicated, first by the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which were followed by the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and then by the rise of Islamic State.

During the Trump administration, the Pentagon's national-defense strategy called for making Chinese and Russian deterrence the top U.S. defense priorities. But the White House's foreign-policy focus was on rolling back Iran's nuclear program and Tehran's support for militant groups in the region.

The Biden team renewed the push to shrink the U.S. military footprint in the Middle East, determining that it could end the conflict in Afghanistan and put meaningful resources and policy attention toward the Indo Pacific. The concern over Beijing has been driven by U.S. assessments that Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed his military to be ready by 2027 to take military action against Taiwan, though American officials say such action isn't inevitable.

The U.S. withdrew more than eight Patriot missile batteries from the region last year, including from Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and their accompanying troops, as well as a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad system, from Saudi Arabia. The naval and aircraft deployment that were kept in the region generally were very modest, while the Pentagon maintained it could surge forces back to the Middle East in a crisis.

"The Middle East matters to us because of oil, Islamist terrorism and Israel, not always in that order," said Eliot Cohen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The idea that we can walk away from the region was always false."" [1]

1. World News: War in Mideast Challenges U.S. Defense Strategy. Lubold, Gordon; Youssef, Nancy A;
Gordon, Michael R.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Oct 2023: A.8.

 

JAV riboja dirbtinio intelekto lustų eksportą į Kiniją

  „VAŠINGTONAS – Bideno administracija griežtina apribojimus Kinijos galimybei pirkti pažangius puslaidininkius, didindama trintį su JAV įmonėmis, kurios parduoda didžiulei Kinijos rinkai.

 

     Prekybos departamentas antradienį pareiškė, kad tai labai apribos dirbtinio intelekto lustų eksportą, todėl JAV bendrovėms „Nvidia“ ir „Intel“ bus sunkiau parduoti esamus produktus Kinijoje arba pristatyti naujus lustus, kad būtų apeitos taisyklės.

 

     Šiuo žingsniu siekiama panaikinti, prieš metus paskelbtas, eksporto kontrolės spragas.

 

     Prekybos sekretorė Gina Raimondo teigė, kad tikslas yra apriboti Kinijos „prieigą prie pažangių puslaidininkių, kurie galėtų paskatinti dirbtinio intelekto ir sudėtingų kompiuterių proveržį“. Ji sakė, kad lustai yra labai svarbūs Kinijos karinėms reikmėms, o tai reiškia susirūpinimą, kad JAV gali atsilikti nuo Kinijos pagrindinių gynybos technologijų srityje.

 

     „Nvidia“ ir kitų puslaidininkių akcijos antradienį nukrito po šios naujienos. „Nvidia“ sumažėjo beveik 6%. Advanced Micro Devices sumažėjo beveik 3%, o „Intel“ – daugiau nei 3%.

 

     Atnaujintos taisyklės išplečia JAV vyriausybės įgaliojimus nustatyti, kokius produktus JAV įmonės gali ir negali parduoti vardan nacionalinio saugumo. Aukštos klasės AI lustų siuntimas be licencijos yra uždraustas. Ir apie „pilkosios zonos“ lustus, esančius šiek tiek žemiau šių slenksčių, dabar reikės pranešti vyriausybei.

 

     Puslaidininkių pramonės asociacija, JAV lustų pramonės grupė, kritikavo taisykles. „Per plati, vienašališka kontrolė gali pakenkti JAV puslaidininkių ekosistemai, nepadidindama nacionalinio saugumo, nes skatina užsienio klientus ieškoti kitur“, – teigė grupė.

 

     Kinijos ambasados Vašingtone atstovas Liu Pengyu sakė, kad Kinija ryžtingai nepritaria naujiems apribojimams, pažymėdama, kad JAV priemonės pažeidžia rinkos ekonomikos principus ir „suardo bei destabilizuoja“ pasaulines tiekimo grandines.

 

     „Nvidia“ teigė, kad nesitikėjo reikšmingo trumpalaikio poveikio, nes paklausa kitose vietose tokia didelė. Vis dėlto bendrovės vyriausioji finansų direktorė Colette Kress birželį pareiškė, kad ilgalaikiai apribojimai Kinijai „nulems, kad JAV pramonė visam laikui praras galimybes konkuruoti.“ [1]

 

1. U.S. News: U.S. Curbs AI Chip Exports To China. Hayashi, Yuka; Fitch, Asa.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Oct 2023: A.3.

U.S. Curbs AI Chip Exports To China.

"WASHINGTON -- The Biden administration is tightening restrictions on China's ability to buy advanced semiconductors, fueling friction with U.S. businesses that sell to the vast Chinese market.

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that it would significantly constrict exports of artificial-intelligence chips, making it tougher for U.S. companies Nvidia and Intel to sell existing products in China -- or to introduce new chips to circumvent the rules.

The move aims to close perceived loopholes in export controls announced a year ago.

The goal, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said, is to limit China's "access to advanced semiconductors that could fuel breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and sophisticated computers." The chips are critical to Chinese military applications, she said, a nod to concerns that the U.S. could fall behind China in key defense technologies.

Shares of Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks dropped Tuesday amid the news. Nvidia was down nearly 6%. Advanced Micro Devices was off nearly 3%, while Intel dropped more than 3%.

The updated rules expand the U.S. government's authority to determine what products U.S. companies can and can't sell in the name of national security. Shipments of high-end AI chips are banned without a license. And "gray zone" chips just below those thresholds will now require notification to the government.

The Semiconductor Industry Association, a U.S. chip-industry group, blasted the rules. "Overly broad, unilateral controls risk harming the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem without advancing national security as they encourage overseas customers to look elsewhere," the group said.

Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said China firmly opposes the new restrictions, noting that the U.S. measures violate the principles of market economy and "disrupts and destabilizes" global supply chains.

Nvidia said it didn't expect a meaningful short-term impact because demand is so high in other places. Still, Colette Kress, the company's chief financial officer, said in June that long-term restrictions on China "will result in a permanent loss of opportunities for the U.S. industry to compete."" [1]

1. U.S. News: U.S. Curbs AI Chip Exports To China. Hayashi, Yuka; Fitch, Asa.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Oct 2023: A.3.

Putinas Kinijoje siekia sustiprinti ryšius – Rusijos prezidentas pradeda didelio atgarsio kupiną kelionę, nugalėdamas JAV pastangas jį izoliuoti

 „PEKINAS. Praėjusią savaitę Didžiojoje žmonių salėje Senato daugumos lyderis Chuckas Schumeris (D., N. Y.) maldavo lyderį Xi Jinpingą atsiriboti nuo Rusijos prezidento Vladimiro Putino, teigdamas, kad Putinas, Vakarų parija,  stabdo Kinijos ambicijas.

 

     Užuot paklausiusi šio patarimo, Kinija antradienį išskėstomis rankomis pasitiko Putiną Pekine – tai buvo pirmasis Rusijos lyderio didelis vizitas į užsienį šiais metais.

 

     Putinas į Kinijos sostinę atvyko lėktuvu antradienio rytą, o valstybinės žiniasklaidos filmuotoje medžiagoje matyti, kaip jis šiltai spaudžia rankas ant asfalto su Kinijos prekybos ministru Wang Wentao, o  karinė garbės sargyba pasveikino raudonu kilimu.

 

     JAV nepavyko nutraukti Maskvos ir Pekino ryšių, jau beveik 20 mėnesių trunkantis konfliktas Ukrainoje.

 

     Pvz., stiprėja Rusijos ir Kinijos prekybos ryšiai su Kinijos įmonėmis, parduodančiomis Rusijai daugybę technologijų, kurias jai sunku įsigyti iš kitur dėl JAV sankcijų, įskaitant puslaidininkius ir pramonines mašinas. Tuo tarpu Kinija importuoja didžiulius kiekius rusiškos naftos ir dujų – pirkinių, kurie padeda užpildyti Maskvos finansinius iždus.

 

     Šią savaitę V. Putinas Pekine remia Xi pasirašytą Juostos ir kelių iniciatyvą, kuri pastarąjį dešimtmetį naudojo geležinkelius, uostus ir kitus projektus Kinijos ekonominei įtakai plėsti užsienyje. JAV pareigūnai skeptiškai vertina Kinijos iniciatyvą.

 

     Kadangi JAV ir Kinija dabar siekia subtilaus savo santykių suartėjimo ir kitą mėnesį Kalifornijoje bus svarstomas Xi ir prezidento Bideno aukščiausiojo lygio susitikimas, Putino vizitas Pekine šią savaitę sustiprina Rusijos ir Kinijos partnerystės atsparumą. Vakarų spaudimui, nepaisant jų pačių strateginių, ideologinių ir istorinių nesutarimų.

 

     Nepaprastai sudėtingus santykius tarp Rusijos, Kinijos ir JAV – trijų branduolinių ginkluotų valstybių, turinčių nevienodus interesus – dabar dar labiau apsunkina Izraelio ir „Hamas“ karas.

 

     Nors JAV remia Izraelį, Putinas dėl smurto kaltino JAV politiką Artimuosiuose Rytuose. Kinija apgailestavo, kad žuvo civiliai, nors užsienio reikalų ministras Wang Yi taip pat jau kritikavo Izraelio atsaką, nes jis peržengia savigynos ribas.

 

     Kai Kinija prieš dešimtmetį išleido Juostos ir kelio iniciatyvą, Xi paskelbė, kad tai naudinga išsivysčiusioms ir besivystančioms šalims. Putino dalyvavimas šių metų viršūnių susitikime, o daugelis Vakarų lyderių lieka namuose, rodo, kaip iniciatyva vis labiau suskaidoma dėl geopolitinių lūžių." [1]

 

Didžiausias įvykių Ukrainoje rezultatas – santykių tarp Rusijos ir Kinijos pagerėjimas. Tai keičia karinių jėgų, politikos, technologijų ir ekonomikos pusiausvyrą.

 

 1. World News: Putin, in China, Seeks to Reinforce Ties --- Russian president begins a high-profile trip in setback for U.S. effort to isolate him. Spegele, Brian; Areddy, James T.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 17 Oct 2023: A.7.

Putin, in China, Seeks to Reinforce Ties --- Russian president begins a high-profile trip in setback for U.S. effort to isolate him.

"BEIJING -- Inside the Great Hall of the People here last week, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) implored leader Xi Jinping to distance himself from Russian President Vladimir Putin, arguing that Putin, a pariah in the West, was holding back China's ambitions.

Instead of heeding that advice, China on Tuesday welcomed Putin to Beijing with open arms, in the Russian leader's first major visit abroad since the International Criminal Court accused him of committing war crimes in Ukraine.

Putin arrived in the Chinese capital by plane on Tuesday morning, with state-media footage showing him shaking hands warmly on the tarmac with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and receiving a red-carpet welcome from a military honor guard.

The U.S. has failed to break the ties between Moscow and Beijing, nearly 20 months into the Ukraine conflict.

Russia and China trade links are surging, for instance, with Chinese companies selling Russia many of the technologies it struggles to source from elsewhere because of U.S. sanctions, including semiconductors and industrial machinery. China, meanwhile, imports huge volumes of Russian oil and gas, purchases that help fill Moscow's financial coffers.

This week, Putin is in Beijing to lend his support to Xi's signature Belt and Road Initiative, which for the past decade has used railroads, ports and other projects to expand Chinese economic influence abroad. U.S. officials are skeptical of the Chinese initiative.

As the U.S. and China now pursue a delicate rapprochement in their own relations, with a potential summit being discussed between Xi and President Biden in California next month, Putin's visit to Beijing this week reinforces the resilience of the Russia-China partnership in the face of Western pressure despite their own strategic, ideological and historical frictions.

"Democracy is the common enemy" of Russia and China, said Guoguang Wu, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

The extraordinarily complex relations among Russia, China and the U.S. -- three nuclear-armed powers with a diffuse set of interests -- are now being further complicated by the war between Israel and Hamas.

While the U.S. has thrown its support behind Israel, Putin has blamed U.S. policy in the Middle East for the violence. China lamented the loss of civilian lives, although Foreign Minister Wang Yi has also already criticized Israel's response as going beyond the scope of self-defense.

When China rolled out the Belt and Road Initiative a decade ago, Xi promoted it as a benefit for developed and developing countries alike. Putin's presence at this year's summit, while many Western leaders stay home, highlights how the initiative has become increasingly fractured along geopolitical fault lines." [1]

The biggest result of events in Ukraine - improvement of ties between Russia and China. It changes the balance of military powers, politics, technology and economy.

1. World News: Putin, in China, Seeks to Reinforce Ties --- Russian president begins a high-profile trip in setback for U.S. effort to isolate him. Spegele, Brian; Areddy, James T.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 17 Oct 2023: A.7.