Belaruskalij and our shots into our own feet

 "It is no secret that the current relations between Vilnius and Minsk are particularly poor. In order to punish Aliaksandr Lukashenko, the Lithuanian authorities have begun to explain publicly that the US sanctions on Belaruskali transit through Lithuania will take effect on December 8. This will be a huge blow to the regime, and Lukashenko will be sent to knockdown.

 

    Raised high expectations, which turned into a complete fiasco. Transit did not stop and the Lithuania’s authorities proved unable to answer for their words.

 

    The speakers promised one and received the opposite. The search for those responsible and guilty was rushed and found a week later. Guilty person became the General Director of the Lithuanian Railway Company Mantas Bartuška. According to the legal acts in force and applicable to Lithuanian railways, the main task of the company is to work profitably. Never mind.

 

    Nevertheless, the former CEO has been largely accused of "political illiteracy". What, did he not hear that the government, the Foreign Ministry, was at war with Lukashenko? He had to hear and understand what was going on. And the fact that the current laws oblige the company's CEO to behave differently is M. Bartuška's problem.

 

    More adequately, according to Lithuanian law, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is solely responsible for the application of the sanctions regime. As is well known, the ministry is headed by its minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis. So it is his political responsibility.

 

    The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is responsible for supervising and coordinating the actions of all Lithuanian institutions regarding sanctions. It seems that G. Landsbergis did not realize whether it had not been explained to him that the US sanctions would not be comprehensive and would not stop the transit of Belaruskalij fertilizers through Lithuania.

 

    So it turned out that for a long time the country's government shared promises in the public sphere that were impossible to keep. In terms of competence, the Foreign Minister should have been the first to stop those speeches, but he did not.

 

    On the contrary, his rhetoric about Minsk, the "dragon slayer's statements", only raised hopes that Minsk would almost cry after Lithuania's actions. Both the Minister and the entire Government, as well as Lithuania, found themselves in a place of stupidity. When one speaks and promises, the opposite is obtained.

 

    After an unpleasant clarification of what sanctions have taken effect since 8 December and how they work. The government has decided to investigate the possibility of further sanctions against Belarus.

 

    One option is to persuade EU member states to further tighten sanctions on the Minsk regime. The problem is that the further geographically we move away from the Lithuanian-Belarusian border, the less political support for this issue. Potassium fertilizer is in demand and it is too difficult to replace it with anything else. Belgium, Germany or Ireland theoretically agree that it is necessary to put pressure on Mr Lukashenko, but potassium fertilizers are valuable for them.

 

    Alternatively, Lithuania could adopt amendments to the law in the Seimas, which would prohibit the transit of Belaruskalij fertilizers through Lithuania at the national level.

 

    World experience shows that economic sanctions sound good, but do not turn a dictator out of office. It is not the dictator and his immediate environment who suffer the most from sanctions, but the ordinary citizens of that country. It is they who are most severely affected by various economic sanctions.

 

    Another thing is that Lithuania's national sanctions are more a gesture of polar determination to the domestic audience than something that has a real economic impact. Let's say the Astravo nuclear power plant. Official Vilnius opposed the construction of a nuclear power plant near Lithuania, but this had no effect. A Lithuanian law has been passed officially banning the export of Belarusian electricity to Lithuania.

 

    Exports are banned to Lithuania, but not to Latvia. Latvia, having a large deficit in energy demand, is not going to join the Lithuanian brothers and not allow Belarusian electricity into its market. Moreover, it is likely that Latvians will sell Belarusian electricity to Lithuania through the Baltic Electricity Exchange. Thus, Lithuanian sanctions on Belarusian energy have become "theoretically there, practically do not work".

 

    It is likely that even if Belaruskalij's transit of fertilizers is banned through the port of Klaipėda, it will be diverted through Latvian or Estonian ports.

 

 It will turn out that Lithuania will deliberately give up Belarusian income for transit, because it is necessary to teach Lukashenko, but the income will be taken by the neighbors and there will be no lessons here.

 

    Probably the right move is to stop and think. We need to look at the situation soberly. Not like that, as we want it to be, but as it really is. Mr Lukashenko will not go away any time soon. His skills in maintaining power are mastered to the fullest.

 

    The suspension of the transit of Belaruskalij fertilizers through Lithuania is not a blow to A. Lukashenko, but a shot in our own leg. We can use the transit money to build the same physical border between Lithuania and Belarus, and not to support the budget of fraternal Latvia.

 

    The situation with the transit of Belaruskalij fertilizers through Lithuania is a good time to ask ourselves two essential questions: a) what we want from Belarus and b) whether we have enough power and resources to make our desire a reality.

 

    The answer to the first question would be: we want a democratic and friendly Belarus for Lithuania. The answer to the second question is that Lithuania does not have sufficient power and resources to eliminate Mr. Lukashenko. Even worse, even foreign allies with whom this wish could be fulfilled in a joint coalition cannot be found.

 

    So we need to go back and rethink the answer to the question of what we want from Belarus. Mr Lukashenko has been in power in Belarus since 1994. If in the past Vilnius and Minsk had somehow found a way to live together for both sides, everything had changed after the 2020 rigged presidential elections in Belarus.

 

    It was then officially announced that after collecting 82 percent of votes Mr. Lukashenko is reelected. The country's long-standing authoritarian leader, Lukashenko, won the presidential election in Belarus. Disagreeing with the election results, the opposition has launched mass protests in Belarus. In response, the authorities repressed.

 

    In mid-August 2020, special-purpose militia forces loyal to Mr Lukashenko, which had become dead in the streets of Minsk, captured, arrested and tortured protesters. Nevertheless, the number of people on the streets was increasing.

 

    Finally, on Sunday, August 16, tens of thousands of Belarusian opposition supporters gathered in Minsk for a "March for Freedom." The militia left. It seemed a little longer and Mr Lukashenko's regime would collapse. The end of the dictatorship near Lithuania will come.

 

    The absolute majority of Lithuanian politicians at the time, who in unconditionally supported the protesters in corpore, thought so. Svetlana Tichanovskaya, who was considered the opposition's favorite in the elections, left for Lithuania, where she was granted the status of an official guest of the state. In support of Belarusians fighting against electoral fraud and militia violence, Lithuanian public figures organized a chain of people from Vilnius to the Belarusian border on August 23, the day of the Baltic Way.

 

    Despite everything, Lukashenko regrouped. The militia returned to the streets. The protesters were neutralized,  and the dictator held his post. We are left standing by Vilnius lonely.

 

    Moreover, Lukashenko began to take revenge. In May of this year, the Lukashenko regime took over and landed in Minsk a plane flying from Athens to Vilnius to arrest Roman Protasevičius, a Belarusian opposition activist and blogger who founded the Nexta information channel. It is rumored that Belarusian special services have even undertaken to physically liquidate Belarusian oppositionists living abroad.

 

    Opponents who reveal the personal data of Lukashenko's favorites from power structures are most persecuted. It becomes publicly known who the favorites are where they live.  Minsk also launched a hybrid attack with  illegal migrants against Lithuania and later Poland.

 

    Lithuania also did not remain in debt. Vilnius has successfully formed coalitions at the international level, so various economic sanctions have been imposed on Lukashenko's supporters. The problem is that once you stand on the path of confrontation, no one wants to stray from it anymore."

 

So Lithuania's rulers started searching for the possibilities to do more harm to Lithuania trying to make Lukashenko laugh.