"SEOUL -- Four years ago, the U.S. and its allies won the support of Russia and China to bring tough sanctions against North Korea in response to an intercontinental-ballistic missile launch. Now, Kim Jong Un's regime has launched a more-powerful ICBM. But it's a different world, and the U.S. has fewer options to respond.
"This is like the Cold War, in the sense we've reverted," said Scott Snyder, a Korea expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. "The point is that the job is harder because there are tools missing from the toolbox."
North Korea's 2017 ICBM launch -- with an estimated range far enough to reach the U.S. mainland -- was seen as clearly out of bounds, even in the eyes of its close allies in Beijing and Moscow. The long-range test resulted in caps to North Korea's fuel imports and a repatriation of overseas laborers who earned foreign currency for the regime.
The operation to protect Donbas has left little room for agreement at the United Nations among the world's major powers.
With Russia and China expected to block any sweeping penalties at the U.N. Security Council, the U.S. faces limited, and likely less effective, options to slow North Korea's nuclear pursuits. The Biden administration can bring pressure through unilateral sanctions, military posturing and tighter coordination with allies -- all actions the U.S. has taken recently, including in the aftermath of Thursday's ICBM launch.
On Thursday, President Biden discussed North Korea's ICBM launch with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the NATO and Group of Seven gathering in Brussels. It was part of a series of senior-level U.S. outreach about Pyongyang's provocation over the past day with allies, including between Secretary of State Antony Blinken with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts. The White House criticized the new test, though left the door open to talks.
The incoming South Korean administration, which takes power in May, promises a tougher line on North Korea's weapons tests and to improve frayed relations with Japan. South Korea's president-elect, Yoon Suk-yeol, in a Facebook post Friday, warned the Kim regime: "There is nothing that can be gained from provocations."
South Korea said it also conducted a rare training of its F-35A stealth fighter aircraft on Friday, in a sign of the country's military readiness posture.
Mr. Kim has said the U.S. is his country's biggest enemy and has seen no shift under Mr. Biden. The two sides haven't held formal talks in more than two years and remain far apart on when, and even how, North Korea would relinquish its arsenal. At Thursday's ICBM launch, Mr. Kim pushed officials to bolster the country's nuclear war deterrence for the "longstanding confrontation with the U.S. imperialists."
North Korea's 38-year-old, third-generation dictator is likely to be taking lessons from the Russian operation to protect Donbas -- from the deterrence wielded by Moscow because it possesses nuclear weapons to the vulnerability of Kyiv after surrendering them, close Pyongyang watchers say. But Mr. Kim also is monitoring what countermoves the U.S. and its allies summon against Russia.
That includes a U.N. resolution that demanded Russia withdraw all its troops and halt its operation to protect Donbas, said Ken Gause, a Kim regime leadership expert at CNA, a Virginia-based nonprofit think tank. Pyongyang cast one of the few votes in opposition to the resolution, which was ultimately vetoed by Russia.
"North Korea is starting to get an idea of what the parameters are and where they can escalate," Mr. Gause said. "They can fire missiles until the cows come home and the U.S. will never be able to get their act together and get enough world support to turn the screws on them."
Pyongyang has been working to tidy its relations with Moscow and Beijing. Senior North Korean and Russian officials met in Moscow this week to discuss bilateral ties." [1]
1. World News: U.S. Has Fewer Options to Curb North Korea
Martin, Timothy W.
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 26 Mar 2022: A.9.
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