It's the EU's turn to bury the internal combustion engine

"If the EU directive on new CO2 limits for cars and vans remains unchanged, it will have far-reaching consequences. For climate protection, this could develop into a boomerang.

Item six on the agenda is a tough one. It goes far beyond the period that MEPs are supposed to be dealing with in plenary earlier this week when they are discussing essential parts of the Fit-for-55 package, which is intended to reduce climate-damaging CO2 emissions by 2030. 

However, the directive on new CO2 limits for cars and delivery vans proposed by the EU Commission and already approved by the Environment Committee contains a short passage that forces the final farewell to the internal combustion engine. From January 1, 2035, an EU-wide fleet target value will apply “corresponding to a reduction of the target for 2021 by 100%”. The same applies to the limit values  ​​for light commercial vehicles.

If this part of the directive passes the vote scheduled for next Thursday unchanged, it will have far-reaching consequences, not just for drivers and vehicle manufacturers, but for the entire energy system. Even synthetic fuels, such as those Porsche wants to use for the 911, no longer have a future. Because only the CO2 emissions that a vehicle emits during operation apply to the fleet target value. This also applies if the carbon required for fuel production is previously separated from the air.

Anyone who buys a new car after the deadline has no alternative to an electric drive, although the battery could be supplemented by a hydrogen-powered fuel cell - if the latter has found its way into the car by then. This is because emissions caused by power generation in fossil power plants are not taken into account in the EU system. The electric car is always included in the calculation of the fleet values ​​as zero. The same applies to hydrogen, even if it is reformed from natural gas.

Even at BMW there were still many critical voices

There are understandable reasons why calculations are made in this way in the European Union. When, in 2009, after the financial crisis, fleet emissions were regulated in a binding manner for the first time, hardly anyone thought a quick breakthrough for electric mobility was possible. Even at the electric pioneer BMW, where the development of the i3 had already started, there were still many critical voices. Energy in the transport sector was based exclusively on mineral oil, and so climate protection consisted of gradually reducing its consumption. A fleet limit of 130 grams of CO2 per kilometer was initially set for 2015, which fell to 95 grams per kilometer by 2020. The result was initially a boost in innovation in engine development. Small three- and four-cylinder engines with high specific power should solve the problem in the middle class. Everything that is good and expensive found its way into the luxury class: high-pressure injection, variable valve control, two-stage charging systems and, last but not least, the first hybrid systems that electrically supported the combustion engine.

All the trouble in vain. After the diesel scandal uncovered in 2015, the mood shifted not only in politics but also in industry. The electric drive was considered the only future technology, the development budgets for combustion engines were reduced step by step, and the car manufacturers began to define phase-out dates - which usually only mean the European market. The providers are thus following the logic that the legislator stipulated by setting electric cars at zero or even counting them multiple times. 

Thomas Koch from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology has been railing against this for a long time. On the occasion of the forthcoming decision of the European Parliament, he organized a letter from more than 200 experts accusing politicians of a gross miscalculation. Because the additional consumption of electricity caused by electric cars must be completely covered by fossil power plants, unless generation plants are built to the same extent. Accordingly, even the calculation method used in many studies with an average CO2 value per kilowatt hour is not legitimate.

Only in a perfect world is an electric car carbon neutral

However, it is also a fact: In a perfect world, in which electric cars only fill up with green electricity and the entire production is also CO2-neutral, i.e. steel no longer comes from the blast furnace, for example, an electric car would be completely climate-neutral. It could even contribute to the stability of a smart power grid, provided that recharging can be controlled by the utility and most drivers recharge at home instead of at the fast charging station. However, since the new directive applies to all EU member states, this infrastructure must is to emerge from the Portuguese Atlantic coast to the Black Sea by the year 2035.

Anyone who doubts that this can succeed, but still wants to become independent of fossil fuels quickly, would perhaps be happy with a fallback in the form of synthetic fuels. However, this required an opening clause, for example in the form of credits on the fleet emissions value. This has been the subject of intense discussion in the European Parliament's Environment Committee, as one MEP wrote to us. In the end, however, it was not enough for a majority. For climate protection, this could develop into a boomerang. Because the total emissions from the transport sector are not dominated by new vehicles, but by the existing ones.

A study conducted last year by the research association FVV showed that the per capita budget for still permissible CO2 emissions would be largely consumed even if only zero-emission cars were registered from 2033 onwards. Switching to climate-neutral synthetic fuels would be a solution for cars in Europe, which are almost 15 years old on average. 

However, the incentives for energy and chemical companies to invest in the production of synthetic fuels are likely to decrease significantly if the technology is phased out in the first place.

Australia and Chile have special chances

In any case, synthetic fuels are not a panacea due to their energy-intensive production. However, unlike electricity, liquid fuels and their precursors can be transported over longer distances, meaning that generation plants could be built in countries with more favorable weather conditions. Australia and Chile, stable democratic states with which long-term energy partnerships should definitely be cultivated, have particular opportunities. A farewell to the internal combustion engine also creates new dependencies anyway, not only from raw material suppliers and processors such as China or Russia. But also because the reciprocating engine will continue to do its work after 2035 in certain types of vehicle, from ambulances and heavy construction machinery to battle tanks. The country that produced Nikolaus August Otto and Rudolf Diesel imported the small engines, probably from China or Japan, and high-capacity units from the United States.

Once the final decision against the combustion engine has been made, it will hardly be possible to reverse it if the electric drive does not turn out to be the only right way. Because the know-how will be missing. 

Chair holders are already complaining that there are hardly any students in in-depth lectures on combustion engines. On the other hand, those who are approaching the end of their working life are attracted to early retirement. The developers who are still active are being successively retrained, just at the beginning of this week we spoke to an expert for exhaust gas turbochargers who is now designing compressors for fuel cells.

The legislative process will probably not be completed until autumn. But if the Commission and Parliament agree, it is unlikely that a majority in the European Council will oppose it. A group of EPP deputies around the transport policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU group Jens Gieseke has already announced resistance. If this attempt fails, by the middle of the century cars with internal combustion engines should only be found at old classic car rallies.”

Should we postpone the transition to EVs until everything else will be prepared? No.

"Does Russ Andrews ("Electric Vehicles Are on a Bridge to Nowhere," Letters, May 26) believe that Henry Ford should have had second thoughts about mass-producing autos because there weren't enough refineries making gas or enough miles of paved roads for them to roll on?

Obviously not. New products don't wait until all the elements are in place to provide for growth. They create demand and opportunities for supporting industries to start and grow. Lithium is in short supply because it wasn't in great demand. But now it is, and the price will go up, which will motivate entrepreneurs all over the world to start mining and processing. It's already happening." [1]

1.   Supply Constraints Won't Hold Back the EVs
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 07 June 2022: A.16.