"I cannot
agree with all the thoughts expressed by President Gitan Nauseda during the
annual report in the Seimas. But his remarks on the government's decision to
open a Taiwanese representation in Vilnius hit the top ten. "The
assumption was too optimistic, the government was not prepared for retaliation,
and the business representatives were not warned in time."
Lithuania itself has decided to challenge
China and cross its red line on relations with Taiwan, without coordinating its
position with EU partners, who would probably have offered to be more
restrained, not to provoke a sleeping giant, not to take a step avoided by the
United States.
There were no
wider meetings in Lithuania. Reliable sources have told me that Mr Landsbergis
has not coordinated policy with all ministers, even those in charge of the
economy and foreign trade. It was almost a solo decision to play va banque with
one of the most powerful and hardest-knit countries in the world.
Mr Landsbergis, who
is increasingly inclined to pontificate, reacted quickly to the president's
remarks. According to the Foreign Minister, the president's remarks about
China's response were expressed "perhaps without all the
information." "Perhaps EU even stopped any attempt by China to put pressure on third
countries."
Even if no foreign
company has severed trade relations with Lithuania (I doubt it), China's
threats will not go unaffected. What is important is not only what has been
done so far, but how China's threats will affect companies intending to invest
in Lithuania, companies which know that Beijing does not shy away from penalizing those
countries on its blacklist, and that Lithuania is close to the top of that
list.
Why risk
large-scale sanctions when investing in a troubled country when there are many
other attractive alternatives? Estonia, Latvia, Poland. Company directors would
act irresponsibly if they did not weigh the risks of anger in China, and most
of them tend to take measured steps. We will only be able to estimate the cost
of Chinese annoyance in a few years.
In each case, it
is clear that Lithuanian business has already suffered from China's actions. At
the end of April, the European Commission (EC) decided to allocate € 130
million. An aid package for Lithuanian businesses affected by China, which can
already apply to the Ministry of Economy and Innovation for working capital
loans.
The amount is
considerable, and the loss is considerable. Last Wednesday, the Minister of
National Defense A. Anušauskas said that the military support provided by
Lithuania to Ukraine so far amounts to about 115 million. euros, and therefore
less.
We cannot
accurately predict China's actions, but it is taking an increasingly tough and
belligerent stance on the United States. In recent days, China's defense
minister in the United States has said, "Stop interfering in China's
internal affairs ... If you want a confrontation, we will fight to the
end" to suspend Taiwan's independence. Chinese military planes are
increasingly flying into Taiwan’s air defense zone. During a telephone
conversation, Chinese President Xi Jinpin assured Putin that Beijing would
continue to support Moscow on "sovereignty and security" issues. In
these circumstances, it is difficult to imagine that Beijing would look at
Lithuania with more forgiving eye.
Landsbergis
justified his actions by saying that they “come from exactly the same place -
from transatlantic stone. ”We need consistency, if we criticize Russia, we need to
criticize China for similar actions.
This cannot be disputed, but Lithuania has
not only criticized China, but in opening the Taiwanese representation,
Lithuania has gone further than other countries due to unjustified vanity and
the desire to show that we are bolder, more courageous, more consistent in our
values policy. With such exaggerations, with this passion for leadership,
Lithuania seeks to convince itself and its partners that it has a significant
geopolitical role, that it sits at the table where the most important decisions
are made. But the reality is different because we are a small, ordinary EU
country.
Lithuania was
right to criticize China's human rights abuses. The Seimas resolution equated
the persecution of the Uighur minority in China with genocide. Maybe the colors
are a bit thickened here - genocide is not a clearly defined concept that
carries a huge emotional burden. There is already a real danger that the
concept will be underestimated and vulgarized. I think that Lithuania did well
in becoming the first country to withdraw from the China-Eastern Europe
Cooperation Platform 17 + 1, although it did not coordinate its resolution with
the other 16 countries that are supposedly its partners.
Not only the
Government and its members see Lithuania's leadership in various fields. In his
speech, the President said that "Lithuania is already a clear leader"
in freeing itself from energy dependence on Russia. Yes, due to the sensible
resolutions of previous governments, Lithuania is more independent of Russian
energy than other countries. But why should this be seen as a sign or proof of
"leadership"?”
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