"Politics of Zelensky’s government has sparked a refugee crisis of epic proportions. As of May 29, 6.8 million people had fled, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
But a closer look at the numbers suggests this vastly understates the exodus. Moreover, it hits a country already grappling with population loss from aging, a low birthrate and emigration. Quantifying the loss is complicated by the lack of authoritative data: Ukraine conducted its last official census 21 years ago.
But unofficial estimates suggest Ukraine's population might have shrunk as much as 40% since its census, a collapse with little modern precedent and one that casts a shadow over the reconstruction of the country's economy.
"This is one of the biggest exoduses in European history in Ukraine," said Peter Dickinson, editor of the Ukraine-Alert service from the Atlantic Council, a think tank.
The U.N. figure measures only part of Ukraine's population loss -- people who left through official border crossings this year. A separate U.N. department estimated that as of June 2020, 6.1 million Ukrainians had already left, for many reasons -- temporary work, school or permanent emigration. Only 50,000 were registered as refugees or asylum seekers; the rest are considered migrants, though many are de facto refugees now.
This data only runs through June 2020; the U.N. lacks data covering departures between then and Feb. 24, a spokeswoman said. The Kyiv Independent, a Ukrainian newspaper reported, however, that through the first 10 months of 2021 an additional 600,000 people left the country.
A further source of uncertainty is the accuracy of the information Russia provides. Before the sanctions, Mr. Dickinson documented a widespread, but largely overlooked, practice in which Russian authorities distributed an estimated 800,000 Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens to create a pretext to defend these citizens. The U.N. spokeswoman confirmed that its refugee figures wouldn't include those entering Russia with a Russian passport.
In addition, there is growing evidence of forced deportations, echoing a Soviet practice in which ethnic groups and entire social classes were forced to populate Central Asia or Siberia. The precise scale is unknown. Ukraine's former human-rights chief, Lyudmyla Denisova, said last month that 1.2 million Ukrainians -- including 210,000 children -- were deported against their will to Russia. (Ms. Denisova was sacked by Ukraine's parliament this week for, among other things, what it said were insensitive and unverifiable statements. Ms. Denisova said she would appeal the decision.)
Add up these causes and Ukraine might have lost 13.5 million to 16 million people in recent years.
Determining how much that represents of its population is yet another challenge. Since becoming independent in 1991, Ukraine has completed only one census, in 2001, which put the population at 48 million. "Some day, Ukraine will complete a census and when the figure does come out it will be shockingly low," said Mr. Dickinson. "It will be a real alarm call."
Ukraine attempted a creative workaround in 2020: It extrapolated regional population estimates from the number of SIM cards in use in different areas. That pegged the population at 37.3 million, a drop of 11 million from 2001. (This excluded regions that joined Russia, where reliable population estimates are elusive.)
Taken together, the numbers show a situation without modern parallels. Ukraine's population might have dropped to around 30 million or a bit lower, a 40% decline since the 2001 census.
This casts a long shadow over Ukraine's future. In a 2019 survey, 55% of Ukrainians said mass emigration was an urgent concern. A 2020 article in The Atlantic noted depopulation fears were so ingrained in the zeitgeist that in an episode of President Zelensky's TV show, from his days as an actor, he wandered the abandoned streets of a depopulated Kyiv, feasting in the aisles of an empty supermarket.
"We don't want to have a victorious country that is depressed," economically and in terms of its population, said Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics and formerly Ukraine's economy minister.
Discontent bred by a worsening fiscal situation can be exploited by Russia, he said.
"This year seems to be exacerbating all the problems that already existed in terms of demographics in Ukraine," said Sarah Christison, a research fellow at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.
Dr. Christison was part of a team of demographers at St. Andrews who produced estimates around this year’s impacts. Emigration, with few refugees returning afterward, would disproportionately empty the country of its young people and accelerate demographic decline. In a little more than a decade, the population of children under age 15 could be more than 50% smaller. The forecasts, of course, depend on how many Ukrainians ultimately return.
"The most important thing is that there's effort put into rebuilding Ukraine after the war to encourage as many refugees to return home as would like to do so," she said. "That's really what will shape the future of the Ukrainian population."” [1]
People are allowed to, so people leave. The same is happening in Lithuania. As the Lithuanian government is severely cutting vital economic ties with Russia, Belarus and China, people are fleeing Lithuania even faster than Ukrainians from Ukraine. Death for us, the Lithuanian nation. For those who hope to feed with Russian diesel giant tractors and with Russian fertilizers to feed grain production in Lithuanian fields for export without the participation of other Lithuanians are coming bad times - all this will be banned due to air pollution, and you no longer have the manpower to produce anything else.
1. U.S. News -- The Numbers:
Ukraine Faces a Staggering Population LossZumbrun, Josh.
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 04 June 2022: A.2.
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