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2024 m. sausio 3 d., trečiadienis

"The word "crisis" is overused, but it accurately describes what Ukraine faces as 2024 begins.


"According to a recent report in the Washington Post, troops on the front line are running out of ammunition. Artillery shells are being rationed, forcing the Ukrainians to cancel planned assaults and making it hard to hold defensive positions. A press officer for a Ukrainian battalion recently said that ammunition shortages had forced his unit to reduce its rate of firing by 90% since the summer. "We lack everything," a member of another unit said. Although his comrades are highly motivated, he added, "You can't win a conflict only on motivation." He doubted they could hold their position much longer.

As Ukraine struggles, its allies dither. Congress went home for the holiday without resolving the legislative impasse over continuing U.S. aid for Ukraine. Hungary's pro-Russian leader vetoed the European Union's proposed $52 billion assistance package. If these logjams aren't broken soon, Ukraine's ability to sustain the conflict, its economy, and the basic functions of its government will be jeopardized.

This is an all-hands-on-deck emergency. If negotiators can't reach a deal by the time the Senate reconvenes, President Biden must get directly involved. There is little doubt that an agreement would include provisions on immigration that many Democrats won't like, but that's the price he must pay for allowing the situation at the southern border to spin out of control. Meanwhile, European nations must muster the political will to provide Kyiv with country-to-country aid if bribes and threats can't force Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to end his opposition to the EU plan.

Even if aid for Ukraine is renewed, it is essential to consider a realistic ending for the conflict. Ukraine's vaunted counteroffensive failed as Russia's reinforced defenses held. Russia's economy has proved more resilient than expected, and it is ramping up military production much faster than Ukraine and its allies. The conflict has exposed the hollowing out of the West's defense industrial base, in Europe especially and to a considerable extent in the U.S. The West's collective inability to provide Ukraine with the artillery shells it needs is evidence of neglect that will take years to remedy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently disclosed that Ukraine's military leaders wanted to mobilize an additional 500,000 troops, which would require unpopular changes to Ukraine's draft laws and additional outlays of $13 billion. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has also been mindful of political considerations, Russia's manpower pool is about four times the size of Ukraine's, and its economy is nine times as large.

Recent reports, which Mr. Putin hasn't denied, suggest that he is ready to agree to a cease-fire along the current battle lines.

 Western leaders should explore whether he is serious about ending the fighting. It would be unwise to assume that public opinion in the West will indefinitely support an open-ended commitment to a conflict that has settled into a stalemate.

This arrangement would be a bitter pill for the Ukrainians. But it is the only realistic path to a lasting peace in Europe." [1]

1. Politics & Ideas: Ukraine May Have to Accept a Cease-Fire. Galston, William A.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 Jan 2024: A.15.

 

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