Belarusian companies are moving from Lithuania to Poland. We know why

"The migration of Belarusian business to Poland is growing rapidly. Many companies are moving from Lithuania, where the legalization of business remains one of the main difficulties for Belarusians. They also face ostracism and suspicions of cooperation with the Russians.

According to a study by the BEROC research center (founded in Sweden, it specializes in the Belarusian market), at the end of 2023, 6,826 companies with Belarusian participation were registered in Poland. The growth began in 2020, when 454 businesses opened.

The cause was the political crisis that began in 2020 after the elections by the Lukashenko regime, and intensified as a result of  the protests and then EU sanctions against Belarus. Last year, 122,000 Belarusians registered with ZUS. After Ukrainians, this is the second group of foreign payers in Poland.

Belarusian companies are fleeing Lithuania. Problems with business legalization, difficult language

In Lithuania, which has been competing with Poland in recruiting Belarusian workers since the beginning of Belarusian emigration, including in the IT sector, the number of emigrants from Belarus has also increased. Between 2020 and 2022, the number of Belarusian companies reached 1,350 enterprises. But since 2023, there has been a reduction - minus 37%, at the end of last year there were 850 legal entities left.

BEROC lists the main problems of Belarusian business in Lithuania: difficulties with the legalization of employees and companies, opening bank accounts and settlements with Belarusian contractors, the negative image of Belarus and low availability of financing.

"People feel uncomfortable with constant discussions about deporting Belarusians, depriving them of residence permits and equating Belarusians with Russians," says the study, cited by Deutsche Welle. “It makes me think about changing the country.” "I don't want to be perceived as a problem," Belarusian emigrants wrote about their decisions to move from Lithuania to Poland. In addition, language plays an important role. Lithuanian is really foreign to Belarusians, unlike Polish.

Lithuania is checking Belarusians

According to the Lithuanian Migration Department, over the last year the increase in the number of Belarusians in Lithuania has decreased 26 times. If 9,543 people arrived in the first half of 2023, then in the first half of 2024 - only 368. At the same time, Belarusians are still the second largest diaspora in Lithuania - it numbers 62,535 people, of which 4.5 thousand. works in the IT and finance industries. Ukrainians remain in first place (76,000), and Russians (15,000) are in third place.

Aleksander works in an IT company. In 2021, he moved to Lithuania with his wife. “The problems began in 2022, when Belarusians began to be identified with Russians and the conditions for issuing residence permits were tightened. This news spreads quickly, there was a person in our company whose permit was revoked - they found out that about ten years ago this person worked in law enforcement agencies," he says.

Andrei also works in IT, he has been living in Lithuania since 2022, but he plans to move with his family to Germany in the near future. "We adapted quickly in Lithuania, but the chance of obtaining citizenship here is not even zero, but negative - this is the attitude towards Belarusians now," he says. “I pay taxes, I follow all the regulations and I don't want to be considered a problem. This is what is happening to Belarusians in Lithuania now.”

Lithuania does not compensate for the loss of Russian customers

Belarusian IT companies lead the list of the largest taxpayers in Lithuania in the information and communication sector. Thus, in the first quarter of 2024, EPAM took first place, contributing EUR 4.3 million to the Lithuanian budget, and Wargaming took second place - almost EUR 3 million.

Among the internal problems, representatives of the relocating companies mentioned difficulties in doing business in several countries and the need to remotely manage part of the team, high emotional stress and rising costs. Workers who moved to the EU had to pay more and taxes also increased.

New markets do not always compensate for lost customers in Russia and Belarus - you need to review your strategy and business model, look for new markets and niches. The most serious threat, according to Belarusian business representatives, would be military actions on the territory of the European Union. According to the BEROC study, many companies from Belarus will not survive another relocation and restart.”