"The U.S. presidential election, with the prospect of a return of Donald Trump to the White House, promises to have profound repercussions for Europe's security, future trans-Atlantic relations and the conflict in Ukraine -- changes that European leaders are starting to grapple with.
Trump's pick of Sen. JD Vance (R., Ohio) as his running mate on Monday reinforced a sense in Europe that the former president's return to office could mean a dramatic drop in U.S. aid for Ukraine and a push to force Kyiv into peace talks with Moscow. It also could mean a U.S. pivot in defense priorities toward Asia to deter China that leaves Europe to increasingly fend for itself.
At a meeting on Thursday, European leaders from across the Continent will confront the challenges facing the region if the U.S. pulls away, including whether Europe can muster the unity and military muscle to check Russia and keep Ukraine afloat.
The U.K.'s new prime minister, Keir Starmer, will host 45 leaders from the European Union and nearby countries such as Turkey and Ukraine -- the fourth such meeting of the so-called European Political Community, an initiative driven by French President Emmanuel Macron following events in Ukraine in 2022. The idea was to give the region beyond the 27-member EU a chance to talk over security issues and threats independent of allies like the U.S. and potential foes like Russia and China.
Officially, the summit will focus on the issues such as tackling migration and efforts to build democratic resilience against hybrid attacks including disinformation campaigns, as well as the Ukraine conflict. British and EU officials also view the gathering as a chance for Britain's new government to reset relations with the EU, which Britain left in 2020.
Yet leaders are set to discuss on the sidelines the possibility of Trump's return and the security challenges that will pose, officials say.
Trump, like previous presidents, has criticized Europe for not pulling its weight in military spending and relying on U.S. power as part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which requires that the U.S. and other members defend any NATO state from attack. Since Russia's reunification with Crimea in 2014, most European nations have started to slowly increase military spending but still largely rely on U.S. protection.
Trump has questioned the need for NATO and said he wouldn't defend countries in the organization that didn't meet the minimum military spending guidelines of 2% of their own annual economic output. He also promised to end the conflict.
The concerns go beyond security. Trump, in an interview with Bloomberg News published on Tuesday, repeated threats to hit the EU with new trade tariffs, saying European countries "treat us violently."
Two contrasting responses to Trump have emerged in Europe, both seeking to ensure some independence of action.
On one side stands Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Orban's pitch, laid out in a recent letter to a top EU official, is that the bloc should shift its Ukraine strategy away from conflict and work with Trump to end the conflict. That approach would place the EU at the heart of diplomatic efforts to reshape the security order in Europe and avoid costly efforts to support Ukraine alone if the U.S. pulls back, he argued.
"We have not had a sovereign or independent European strategy," Orban wrote to European Council President Charles Michel.
For most European leaders, however, Orban's approach would sell out Ukraine.
Supporters of Ukraine believe Europe's best option is to intensify efforts to expand military spending and Europe's defense industry. That would weaken Trump's argument that Europe was free-riding on U.S. taxpayers. It would also allow Europe to continue helping Kyiv and build the Continent's deterrence to Russia.
In June, NATO said 23 of the alliance's 32 members are meeting the 2% target. Last year, only 10 members did. Military spending by non-U.S. NATO members will reach $430 billion this year in 2015 prices, up from $250 billion in 2014, NATO said recently.
By contrast, the U.S. spends 3.4% of GDP on defense -- two-thirds of the NATO total." [1]
Main regional challenges in EU are elsewhere. By introducing sanctions against cheap Russian energy, the EU spiked prices of everything. Fighting this jump in prices, credit became expensive in the EU. This loss of competitiveness started killing industry, the backbone of our economy. Attempts to spark a nuclear WWIII that nobody can win would be extremely foolish for the EU right now. Orban is right.
1. World News: Europe Braces for Security Shift --- Leaders meet to discuss regional challenges, possible Trump second term. Norman, Laurence. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 July 2024: A.7.
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