Trumpo tarifai veikia: viso pasaulio šalys žada pirkti amerikietiškas prekes

 „Per dvi savaites nuo tada, kai prezidentas Trumpas išleido savo platų abipusių tarifų rinkinį, daugelis JAV prekybos partnerių turi aiškų planą, kaip įtikinti Vašingtoną neįvesti griežtų muitų jų eksportui į JAV: pirkti daugiau amerikietiškų prekių.

 

 Daugelis skuba tai daryti, siekdami panaikinti savo prekybos su JAV disbalansą, o kiti ragina imtis kolektyvinio atsako, kad išvengtų Vašingtono spaudimo. Tačiau kai kurios šalys negali arba nenori atverti savo piniginės.

 

 Vašingtonas derasi su daugiau, nei 70, valstybių dėl didžiulių abipusių muitų, kuriuos Trumpas paskelbė balandžio 2 d., kurį Trumpas pavadino „Išsivadavimo diena“. Vėliau jis pristabdė rinkliavas iki liepos mėn.

 

 Trumpas ketvirtadienį pareiškė, kad jam būtų „labai mažai problemų“ susitarti su Europos Sąjunga dėl tarifų sumažinimo mainais į prieigą prie JAV rinkos, kuri, pasak jo, turi „kažko, ko visi nori“.

 

 „Bus 100% prekybos susitarimas“, – sakė Trumpas Baltuosiuose rūmuose susitikęs su Italijos ministre pirmininke Giorgia Meloni. Ji pakvietė Trumpą apsilankyti Italijoje ir susitikti su ES pareigūnais prekybos deryboms.

 

 Vietnamas, turintis daugiau, nei 120 mlrd. dolerių, prekybos perviršį su JAV, ypač stengiasi. Neseniai jis sudarė 300 milijonų dolerių finansavimo sandorį dėl naujų „Boeing“ lėktuvų parko įsigijimo. Jis suteikė leidimą „Starlink“ – palydovinio interneto paslaugai, kuri priklauso artimam Trumpo patarėjui Elonui Muskui. Ir jis paspartino 1,5 milijardo dolerių vertės Trumpo kurorto patvirtinimus.

 

 JAV prekių ir paslaugų paklausa šurmuliuoja ir kitur. Tailande tai yra kukurūzų pašarai, o Europa pasiūlė, kad tai galėtų paskatinti sojų pupelių pirkimą. Pietų Korėja planuoja siųsti delegaciją į Aliaską aptarti dalyvavimo 44 milijardų dolerių vertės suskystintųjų gamtinių dujų projekte.

 

 Įsipareigojimai paskelbti Vašingtonui pradėjus pradinį derybų raundą, o JK, Australija, Pietų Korėja, Indija ir Japonija yra pagrindiniai iždo sekretoriaus Scotto Bessento taikiniai, šią savaitę pranešė „The Wall Street Journal“. Japonijos prekybos pareigūnai išvyko į Vašingtoną susitikti su Trumpu. Viceprezidentas JD Vance'as sakė, kad yra „gera tikimybė“ susitarti su JK, o aukščiausi Pietų Korėjos ekonomikos pareigūnai kitą savaitę planuoja susitikti su Besentu.

 

 Žadėtas išlaidumas JAV prekėms jau anksčiau padėjo nuraminti prekybos trintį. Per pirmąją D. Trumpo kadenciją Pekinas sustabdė prekybos karą su Vašingtonu, iš dalies pažadėdamas per dvejus metus padidinti pagamintų prekių ir kitų paslaugų pirkimą JAV 200 mlrd. dolerių.

 

 Šiandien kyla klausimas, ar daugiau JAV prekių pirkimas ir prekybos disbalanso mažinimas nuramins D. Trumpą. Tai gali būti sunku parduoti: Kinija neįvykdė savo pažadų prieš pasibaigiant susitarimui, kurį ji pasirašė per pirmąją D. Trumpo kadenciją.

 

 Atrodo, kad ši Trumpo administracija nori daugiau, nei tik verslo augimo. Ji siekia didelių dolerių investicijų į JAV, netarifinių priemonių panaikinimo ir veiksmų prieš Kiniją, sakė Wendy Cutler, Azijos visuomenės politikos instituto viceprezidentė ir buvusi JAV prekybos pareigūnė.

 

 Indija pareiškė, kad siekia beveik keturis kartus padidinti savo dabartinę prekybą su JAV iki 500 mlrd. dolerių.

 

 Pareigūnai iš ES plūduriavo didindami JAV SGD ir sojų pupelių pirkimą. Trumpas užsiminė, kad prekybos karas galėtų būti nutrauktas, jei ES nupirktų JAV energetikos produktų už 350 mlrd. dolerių. Šią savaitę ES, kuri šiuo metu gauna 45% SGD importo iš JAV, išreiškė susidomėjimą padidinti šį importą.

 

 Pastarosiomis dienomis Tailandas, Vietnamas ir Malaizija Argentinos grūdų gamintojams pasakė, kad jie gali pirkti iš JAV, kad padėtų savo šalims sumažinti prekybos disbalansą ir susitarti dėl geresnio tarifų susitarimo, sakė Gustavo Idigoras, grupės, atstovaujančios didžiausius Argentinos grūdų perdirbėjus ir eksportuotojus, vadovas.

 

 Praėjusią savaitę apsilankęs Baltuosiuose rūmuose Izraelio ministras pirmininkas Benjaminas Netanyahu pažadėjo atsikratyti savo šalies 7,4 mlrd. dolerių prekybos prekėmis pertekliaus su JAV.

 

 Kai kurios, mažesnes pajamas gaunančios, šalys, kurios negali pasikrauti JAV prekių, pažadėjo nesiimti atsakomųjų veiksmų arba įsipareigojo panaikinti savo muitus JAV importui. Kai kuriais atvejais visiškai panaikinti prekybos disbalansą neįmanoma. Tačiau D. Trumpo prekybos gambitas gali laimėti tam tikrų nuolaidų, pavyzdžiui, atverti tam tikras rinkas JAV žemės ūkio prekėms arba sušvelninti duomenų apribojimus, kurie galėtų būti naudingi JAV technologijų įmonėms.

 

 Ne visos šalys ruošiasi išlaidauti. Kanada ir Meksika jau dabar yra didžiausios JAV produktų pirkėjos pasaulyje. Didžioji dalis Lotynų Amerikos perka daugiau, nei parduoda JAV, o regionui daugiausia taikomas minimalus 10 % tarifas.

 

 Kai kurios JAV sąjungininkės, įskaitant Australiją ir Japoniją, pasiūlė susivienyti, kad kovotų su Trumpo tarifais. Pirmadienį Japonijos ministras pirmininkas Shigeru Ishiba pareiškė, kad jo šalis pradės derybas, atsižvelgdama į „viso pasaulio interesus“. „Jei skubėsime, mums gali nepavykti“.

 

 Kai JAV prekybos partneriai skuba siūlyti Vašingtonui nuolaidų, Kinija yra išskirtinė. Administracija šalyje išlaikė daugiau, nei 100% tarifus, o abi pusės nesileido į prasmingas derybas. Vis dėlto D. Trumpo tikslas pertvarkyti pasaulinę prekybą ir sugrąžinti gamybą į JAV labai priklauso nuo prekybos tarp dviejų pasaulio ekonomikos gigantų perbalansavimo. Kinijos pasaulinis prekybos perteklius siekia beveik 1 trilijoną dolerių, o su JAV – 1,2 trilijono dolerių prekybos deficitas.

 

 Prekybos chaosas dar nesuteikia Kinijai galimybę įstumti verslą į šalis, kurios priklauso nuo eksporto į JAV, sakė Rolandas Rajahas, Sidnėjuje įsikūrusios ekspertų grupės Lowy Institute vyriausiasis ekonomistas. Kad tai įvyktų, Pekinas turėtų labiau atverti savo ekonomiką užsienio įmonėms, sakė jis.” [1]

 

 
1. Countries Across the Globe Are Vowing to Buy American. Martin, Timothy W; Kim Mackrael in Brussels; Dube, Ryan; Peru.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Apr 2025: A1.

Trump's Tariffs Work: Countries Across the Globe Are Vowing to Buy American

"In the two weeks since President Trump unleashed his sweeping set of reciprocal tariffs, many U.S. trade partners have a clear plan to convince Washington against reimposing stiff duties on their exports to the U.S.: Buy more American goods.

Many are rushing to do so in a bid to eliminate their trade imbalances with the U.S., while others are urging a collective response to stave off pressure from Washington. Some countries, however, can't, or won't, open their wallets.

Washington is negotiating with more than 70 nations over the sky-high reciprocal tariffs Trump announced on April 2, which Trump termed "Liberation Day." He later paused the levies until July.

Trump said on Thursday he would have "very little problem" making a deal with the European Union to reduce tariffs in exchange for access to a U.S. market he said has "something everyone wants."

"There will be a trade deal, 100%," Trump said during meetings at the White House with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy. She invited Trump to visit Italy and to meet EU officials for trade talks.

Vietnam, which has a surplus of more than $120 billion with the U.S. and saw tariffs on its goods rise to 46% on April 2, shows how anxious countries are to stave off the duties. It recently closed a $300 million financing deal to buy a fleet of new Boeing jets. It pushed through the authorization of Starlink, the satellite internet service owned by Elon Musk, a close Trump adviser. And it accelerated the approvals for a $1.5 billion Trump resort.

Demand is bustling for U.S. goods and services elsewhere, too. In Thailand it is corn feed, while Europe has suggested it could boost soybean purchases. South Korea plans to send a delegation to Alaska to discuss participating in a $44 billion liquefied-natural-gas project.

The pledges come as Washington starts an initial round of talks, with the U.K., Australia, South Korea, India and Japan among Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's top targets, The Wall Street Journal reported this week. Japanese trade officials have traveled to Washington for a meeting with Trump. Vice President JD Vance said there is a "good chance" of a deal with the U.K., while South Korea's top economic officials plan to meet with Bessent next week.

A promised splurge on U.S. goods has worked to calm trade friction before. During Trump's first term, Beijing halted its trade war with Washington, in part by vowing to boost U.S. purchases of manufactured goods and other services by $200 billion over two years.

The question today is whether buying more U.S. goods and reducing trade imbalances will appease Trump. It might be a hard sell: China fell short on its promises before the deal it struck during Trump's first term petered out.

This Trump administration appears to want more than just an uptick in business. It is seeking big-dollar investments in the U.S., the elimination of non-tariff measures and steps to counter China, said Wendy Cutler, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. trade official.

India has said it aims to nearly quadruple its current trade with the U.S. to $500 billion, with Trump urging more purchases of U.S. defense equipment.

Officials from the EU have floated raising purchases of U.S. LNG and soybeans. Trump has suggested the trade war could be called off if the EU bought $350 billion more in U.S. energy products. This week, the EU -- which currently gets 45% of its LNG imports from the U.S. -- expressed interest in boosting those imports.

In recent days, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia have told grain producers in Argentina that they might buy from the U.S. to help their countries lower their trade imbalances and negotiate a better tariff deal, said Gustavo Idigoras, head of a group that represents Argentina's biggest grain processors and exporters.

During a White House visit last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel promised to get rid of his country's $7.4 billion trade surplus for goods with the U.S.

Some lower-income countries that are unable to load up on U.S. goods have either promised not to retaliate or have pledged to remove their own tariffs on U.S. imports. Eliminating trade imbalances altogether isn't feasible in some cases. But Trump's trade gambit could win some concessions, such as prying open certain markets for U.S. agricultural goods or relaxing data restrictions that could benefit U.S. tech companies.

Not all countries are gearing up to spend. Canada and Mexico are already the world's biggest buyers of U.S. products. Much of Latin America buys more than it sells to the U.S., with the region largely subjected to the minimum 10% tariff rate.

Some U.S. allies, including Australia and Japan, have suggested banding together to contend with Trump's tariffs. On Monday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan said his country would approach negotiations with the "interest of the entire world" in mind. "We may fail if we rush."

As the U.S.'s trading partners rush to offer Washington concessions, China is the outlier. The administration has maintained tariffs of more than 100% on the country, and the two sides haven't engaged in meaningful talks. Yet Trump's goal of rewiring global commerce and bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. is heavily dependent on rebalancing trade between the world's two economic giants. China carries a global trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion, while the U.S. has a $1.2 trillion trade deficit.

The trade chaos does hand China a chance to siphon away business from countries that rely on exports to the U.S., said Roland Rajah, lead economist at the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank. For that to occur, Beijing would need to open its economy further to foreign firms, he said." [1]

 
1. Countries Across the Globe Are Vowing to Buy American. Martin, Timothy W; Kim Mackrael in Brussels; Dube, Ryan; Peru.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Apr 2025: A1.

 

The New Venture Capital World in Germany

"The German venture capital industry is recovering and setting new priorities. But previously unpublished KfW calculations show that there is still plenty of room for improvement compared to other countries.

So far, the development of Ralf Gulde's company Sereact has been almost textbook. Gulde has known his co-founder since childhood; the two spent years researching artificial intelligence (AI) applications for robots at the University of Stuttgart before founding Sereact in 2021.

 

The company develops and markets AI models that can be used to program robots in natural language. "Programming robots really wasn't subject to entertainment tax until now," says Gulde. "Even my ten-year-old nephew can program robots with us." Customers include Daimler Truck and the Dutch online retailer Bol.com. A few weeks ago, Sereact closed a financing round of €25 million. The Stuttgart-based company has been profitable since last year. "We operated very capital-efficiently and tried to solve problems with new approaches and creativity, instead of smashing everything with capital," says Gulde.

 

Sereact and its Swabian entrepreneurial mentality represent the transformation of the German startup scene: highly complex business models based on years of research instead of the next online retailer or delivery service; profitability instead of rapid growth at any price. The startup financiers, so-called venture capitalists, have evidently learned from the years of the coronavirus ramp-up. "We are observing an increasing selection of investors," says Romy Schnelle, Managing Director of the public-private investment company High-Tech Gründerfonds. Capital is available, but is being allocated more specifically to various uses.

 

"Startups that can demonstrate both a compelling vision and medium-term financial stability have particularly good prospects – the desired path to profitability must be sensibly planned," adds Florian Bogenschütz, who heads Telefónica's startup incubator Wayra.

 

That sounds plausible, but it hasn't always been the case. In 2020 and 2021, even founders without real business prospects, boosted by low interest rates, easily received double-digit millions at high valuations. With rising interest rates and without the tailwind of the pandemic, investments in startups declined sharply. This was accompanied by a sharp correction in valuations, which is also reflected in the fund performance of some venture capitalists. According to a recent survey by the venture capital firm Redpoint, around 70 percent of the companies that achieved unicorn status in 2021 have not achieved a comparably high valuation since then. Investors refer to startups with a valuation of more than one billion dollars as unicorns.

 

But the trend is now pointing upwards again. Venture capital proved to be a relative boost to the German private equity industry's bottom line last year: The private equity association BVK recently reported a decline in total investments in 2024 by one-eighth to €11.3 billion – citing the venture capital segment as a "bright spot," as it reported a return to growth after two years of decline, namely by one-quarter to €3.4 billion. This is the amount of equity invested by private equity firms in Germany in startups. "The venture capital market is on the road to recovery. This development is evident not only in Germany, but worldwide," says Frédéric du Bois-Reymond, BVK board member and full-time partner at Earlybird X. Large financing rounds in which private equity firms invest with other investors have increased in number. Examples include the defense startup Helsing, the AI ​​translation service DeepL, the chip startup Black Semiconductor, the fitness equipment manufacturer eGym, and the energy company 1Komma5grad. Artificial intelligence, defense, and air conditioning technology are the focus of investor interest.

 

According to BVK, venture capital funds raised €2.4 billion in new commitments last year, a third more than the previous year – this increase also contrasted with the traditional German private equity sector, which, according to statistics, raised less than the previous year. "Especially new or smaller fund managers are nevertheless observing an extended fundraising period and higher requirements," says Hesselmann, co-founder of the M&A database Deal Circle, said:

 

"So-called limited partners, i.e., the backers of venture capital funds, such as family offices, insurance companies, and pension funds, are acting rather cautiously. A lot of capital is currently tied up in existing funds awaiting exits from their portfolio companies, says Marcus Behrendt, Managing Partner at BMW i Ventures. As long as these returns fail to materialize, it remains challenging to make new investments.

 

Despite the slight turnaround, there is still considerable room for improvement compared to other countries: Measured by economic output, the volume of the German venture capital market is currently just above the average of the 27 EU countries, as the development bank KfW states in an as yet unpublished study obtained by the F.A.Z. Considering all venture capital transactions that investors have made with German startups over the past five years, their total annual value averages 0.25 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) – compared to 0.23 percent across the 27 EU countries. France's figure is one-third higher at 0.34 percent. KfW cites economic policy initiatives, particularly in the past three years. The United Kingdom, with an average of 0.74 percent of GDP, and the USA, with an average of 0.85 percent, are at a much higher level.

 

According to KfW's assessment, the key issue is the large funds. The venture capital market in Germany needs more high-volume pools of money to co-finance large financing rounds. In the United States, a good half (52 percent) of newly raised funds between 2021 and 2024 flowed into funds with the equivalent of €500 million or more. In Europe, this applied to 18 percent of fresh capital, and in Germany, to seven percent. According to the KfW analysis, exiting via an IPO is also much more difficult in Germany than in America.

 

"Due to the political situation in Germany, but also in the USA, there is currently a great deal of uncertainty in the private and public exit markets," says M&A expert Hesselmann. Looking ahead to the coming months, given the combination of lower interest rates and capital pressure on the venture capital side, a revival of the IPO market is expected. However, this requires a stabilization of the political situation. This exit channel would enable venture capitalists to sell their shares and fill their coffers with fresh capital that they could reinvest.

 

Ralf Gulde doesn't have to worry about that for now. He wants to use Sereact to develop a new, better AI model that also enables the execution of even more complex actions and to open up new markets abroad. He has the capital to do so, for now.” [1]

 

 

1. The New Venture Capital World. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung; Frankfurt. 28 Mar 2025: 27. By Maximilian Sachse and Klaus Max Smolka, Frankfurt

Zero Is the Magic Number for Cutting Red Tape

"One of President Trump's executive orders could transform how the federal government reviews and manages energy regulations that rule and constrain our lives. The new directive borrows from the business world by introducing a process known as zero-based regulatory budgeting. This process requires programs to be justified from scratch each budget cycle, rather than assuming prior-year allocations should continue.

The zero-based regulation approach has been effective in Idaho, which implemented an aggressive regulatory sunset process in 2019, wiping tens of thousands of restrictions off the books. Since then, the state has maintained a rolling five-year review cycle, requiring agencies to scrap rules and repromulgate those worth keeping.

Mr. Trump's executive order borrows heavily from Idaho's experience but so far is limited to energy regulations, requiring regulators to establish their own version of a sunset review, tailored to agencies' unique congressional mandates.

The Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and Nuclear Regulatory Commission, among others, will begin crafting rules for procedures to implement this mandate and identify which statutes provide the legal basis for sunset reviews. Agencies may rely on broad "housekeeping" authorities, which grant them general powers to structure internal management processes. They can lean on such provisions as Section 610 of the Regulatory Flexibility Act, which requires agencies to review rules to reduce effects on small businesses. Particular agencies will likely point to other authorities unique to their operations that permit them to adopt a periodic review process.

These agency-specific process regulations will be enacted via the official rulemaking process, and they will insert sunset provisions into departments' respective sections of the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations. Litigation is likely to follow as progressive interest groups claim the executive branch has no right or reason to sunset existing rules. But states' experiences suggest otherwise. Roughly a third of America's 50 states have some form of sunset review for regulations, as do many countries. These reviews aren't radical. They are standard tools of good governance.

Still, activists will say essential protections are under attack. Some businesses will object too. That's because rules entrench incumbents and block out competition. When red tape is cut, startups and small firms benefit most, not the biggest players who have already complied with the mountains of requirements on the books.

That's one reason deregulation can be a hard sell politically. The benefits of streamlining regulation are spread diffusely across consumers and new market entrants. There's no ultra-motivated, well-organized constituency to fight for deregulation. But the economic payoff can be huge.

British Columbia is a striking success story. In the early 2000s, the Canadian province reduced its regulatory requirements by more than one-third. Research suggests this added about 1 percentage point to its annual growth rate. Idaho also cut its regulatory pages by more than 30% and now ranks as the least regulated state in the nation. That kind of progress is possible at the federal level.

Agencies are expected to move quickly under the executive order, which requires that sunset rules be in effect by the end of September and expiration dates be set no later than a year after that. Even if only a few departments conduct meaningful reviews and let many rules expire, that would be a historic achievement. And if momentum builds, the effort could snowball into one of the most significant regulatory reforms in U.S. history.

This narrow reform should only be the beginning. Additional directives could extend zero-based regulatory budgeting beyond energy regulators. Congress also has a role to play. Codifying the executive order into law would ensure that this initiative endures beyond the current administration.

It's rare to see an executive action that has the potential to bend permanently the trajectory of the regulatory state. Yet this one could. By flipping the default so that rules must be rejustified or disappear, zero-based regulatory budgeting could transform how Washington governs. That means fewer outdated rules clogging the economy and lower compliance burdens for businesses and households. Most important, it means a government more focused on results than red tape.

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Mr. Broughel is a senior fellow with the Competitive Enterprise Institute." [1]

1.  Zero Is the Magic Number for Cutting Red Tape, Broughel, James.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 17 Apr 2025: A17.