How big damage to Ireland's economy Trump's tariffs are bringing?
Trump's current and proposed tariffs are anticipated to inflict significant damage on Ireland's economy, primarily by impacting its large pharmaceutical export industry and increasing overall economic uncertainty.
The current and projected impacts include:
Reduced Economic Growth: The Irish government has already revised its domestic economic growth forecasts downwards due to the uncertainty caused by Trump's policies.
In a scenario where a 10% tariff on US imports from the EU remains, growth could slow to 2% this year.
Vulnerability of Key Sectors: Ireland is highly reliant on the U.S. as an export market, with goods exports to the U.S. worth €73 billion in 2024, almost a third of its total exports. Pharmaceuticals and medical devices are the most important sectors, making up about 45% of all Irish exports. The potential imposition of a 20-25% tariff on pharmaceutical products could halve Ireland's pharmaceutical exports over five years and put tens of thousands of jobs at risk.
Job Losses: An analysis by Ireland's Department of Finance warned that failure to secure a trade deal could result in a "growth shock" and impact up to 25,000 jobs. Some estimates place the number of existing or potential jobs at risk even higher, between 50,000 and 80,000.
Fiscal Risk: Ireland's public finances are heavily dependent on corporation tax from a small number of large U.S. multinational companies. A prolonged trade war, combined with potential U.S. corporate tax cuts that encourage companies to move operations back to the U.S., could pose a major risk to this revenue stream.
Trade Disruption: Manufacturers have already shown a tendency to front-load exports to the U.S. to get products into the country ahead of tariffs, causing short-term data distortions and reflecting the high uncertainty.
While the immediate, direct impact of the initial tariffs was somewhat limited to certain sectors, the ongoing uncertainty and the threat of broader, higher tariffs (especially on pharmaceuticals) are considered a "very grave and serious threat" to Ireland's economic model.
“President Trump has consistently proclaimed the U.S. will no longer tolerate countries that reap the benefits of America's economic strength and military protection while pursuing foreign policies that undermine American interests. Ireland is one such nation.
The Emerald Isle has benefited disproportionately from the creation of a world that American security, American capitalism and American sacrifice helped build. But following the recent presidential election of far-left candidate Catherine Connolly, tensions between Washington and Dublin are set to heighten.
Ireland's president-elect embodies antagonism toward American interests. She has said that Ireland "certainly cannot trust" the U.S. and has criticized the U.K. and France for their links to the so-called global military industrial complex. She accused the North Atlantic Treaty Organization of "warmongering" before the Ukraine conflict began. And in 2018 Ms. Connolly traveled to Baathist Syria with known Iranian and Russian boosters on an alleged fact-finding mission.
Ireland is finding its voice in international affairs, but it's one that seems increasingly hostile to U.S. interests. Ireland is the most antagonistic country to Israel in the Western world. Israel's ambassador in Dublin has been withdrawn. Ireland was one of the first Western democracies to recognize a Palestinian state unilaterally, and it is at the forefront of allegations of "genocide" against Israel. Meanwhile Dublin courts Chinese investment with no mention of Beijing's human-rights record, economic coercion or regional aggression.
Ireland's historic neutrality is no excuse for its pitiful investment in defense -- roughly 0.2% of gross domestic product -- which is among the lowest in the European Union. Ireland lacks key technical defenses, like radar systems and efficient cyber and human intelligence networks, leaving the country vulnerable to espionage and cyberattacks from Russia, China and extremist nonstate actors -- which creates an opening to target American tech firms with significant Irish infrastructure.
For decades, Ireland has been one of Europe's fastest-growing economies. Dublin has reaped the benefits of hosting the European headquarters of major American companies that have been attracted by its low corporate tax rate. But a new report by Policy Exchange, a leading British think tank, shows that Ireland is vulnerable to tariffs, negotiation shifts and other changes of international trade.
Mr. Trump will make clear that the old way of doing things is over. Dublin has been a champion and beneficiary of a global economic system that Washington is bringing to an end.
Americans have always cherished their special bond and heritage with Ireland. But it's high time that friendship reflected the realities of a changed world. Ms. Connolly should take heed: Ireland can no longer have the luxury of a free ride at America's expense.
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Mr. O'Brien served as White House national security adviser, 2019-21.” [1]
1. When Irish Eyes Are Glaring. O'Brien, Robert C. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 07 Nov 2025: A13.
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