Many 'Next Warren Buffetts' Have Failed to Measure Up

 

“Warren Buffett's devout fans say he is inimitable. It has never stopped others from trying.

 

Buffett stepped down as Berkshire Hathaway's chief executive in December, ending a decadeslong tenure noted for a remarkable investing record, rare dealmaking prowess and staunch loyalty to his hometown of Omaha, Neb., and its humble ways.

 

There is a new Berkshire CEO, Greg Abel, who succeeded Buffett in January. But for almost as long as there has been an oracle in Omaha, there has been a steady procession of would-be copycats proclaimed by admirers, journalists and even themselves as the next Warren Buffett.

 

Buffett hopefuls have seldom passed their auditions, and in some cases, have failed miserably. "The Next Warren Buffett Curse," or the superstition that those anointed with the title are doomed to fall short, might not be real. But looking at the list, believers in the so-called curse might have a point.

 

Fortune pondered whether Sam Bankman-Fried was "The Next Warren Buffett?" in a cover story mere months before the collapse of his crypto exchange FTX in 2022. He is currently serving a prison sentence after his conviction for fraud and conspiracy stemming from FTX's failure. An appeals lawyer for Bankman-Fried didn't respond to a request for comment.

 

And Weizhen Tang, who calls himself a "Chinese Warren Buffett" in a LinkedIn profile, was convicted in 2013 of defrauding customers in a $50 million Ponzi scheme. He finished his sentence in 2019. "My goal was never to simply mimic a title, but to apply a specific investment philosophy," Tang said in an email. "Regarding the 2013 conviction, it is important to note that I have always maintained my innocence."

 

Eddie Lampert, Businessweek's Next Buffett contender back in 2004, transcended for a time the hedge-fund world that made him a billionaire by taking over Kmart in bankruptcy and later adding another troubled retailer, Sears, Roebuck, to his empire. But the combined company filed for bankruptcy in 2018. Lampert didn't respond to a request for comment.

 

Many others went on to find success, even if they haven't (yet) matched Buffett's record or emerged as a paragon of American business. Prem Watsa, CEO of Fairfax Financial, a Toronto company that owns insurers and other businesses run in a decentralized, Berkshire-like style, is known as the Warren Buffett of Canada. Watsa told The Wall Street Journal in 2015 that "there's only one Buffett, and he's in Omaha."

 

Chamath Palihapitiya, known as the SPAC king, told Fortune in 2020 that he hoped to be "our generation's Berkshire," before high interest rates led to a bust in special-purpose acquisition companies.

 

The venture capitalist argued in a podcast earlier this year that Buffett's glittering investing results were in part because of the "information asymmetry" that existed in the markets before federal regulations revamped disclosure rules in the early 2000s. He is now working on building software that incorporates artificial intelligence. Palihapitiya didn't respond to requests for comment.

 

Buffett says that he has never sought insider information, instead consulting Moody's books [1] and other public reading materials.

 

 When he spoke with chief executives, he often only asked two questions: If they had to put all their money into buying shares of a competitor and hold that position for 10 years, which one would they pick and why? And which company would they choose to bet against?

 

"You don't need inside information to make money in stocks," Buffett said by phone from his office in Omaha. His advice for those aspiring to be like him: "It would be very helpful to know that they would live to be 95, because compounding really works its miracles in the last 10 years of your life."

 

Being Buffett is no easy feat. The man himself has struggled to match his stock-picking record in recent years, amassing a record $373.1 billion in cash and equivalents by the end of his tenure. He has warned that Berkshire's staggering size means that growth will have to slow. In 2024, Buffett said that there was "no possibility of eye-popping performance."

 

A yearslong, dizzying AI rally that has left stocks trading at historically expensive levels has also made it difficult for Berkshire to find stocks at a bargain.

 

One contender is still vying to be the next Buffett: Bill Ackman. The hedge-fund manager was lauded as "Baby Buffett" on the cover of a 2015 issue of Forbes, and has called the Berkshire chairman his "professor."

 

"Warren Buffett had a 60-plus-year track record -- my ambition is to best it," Ackman told WSJ. Magazine last year. Ackman declined to comment.

 

Ackman recently filed to take public his hedge fund, Pershing Square, in tandem with a new investment fund. The new U.S. fund would give Ackman access to more capital to emulate the Buffett strategy of longer-term bets.” [2]

 

1. Moody's Investors Service (Finance). Historically, "Moody's books" also refers to the financial manuals and security rating books founded by John Moody in 1900.

 Moody's Manual of Investments

 Moody’s Analyses of Railroad Investments

Moody's Manual of Investments, American and Foreign was a definitive annual series of financial reference books published by Moody's Investors Service (starting as early as 1900/1928) providing detailed financial statistics, company histories, and security analyses for investors. The manuals were crucial for covering railroads, public utilities, industrials, and banking industries.

 

Key Aspects of the Manuals:

 

    Structure: Initially covering various sectors, it split in the mid-1950s into separate, independent titles for specific sectors, including Transportation, Public Utilities, Industrial, and Government securities.

    Content: Included comprehensive financial data, company histories, and bond/stock descriptions.

    History: John Moody founded the publication, with early versions focusing on industrial and railroad securities.

 

    Legacy: Known for providing "yellow sheet" data in later years and acting as a predecessor to modern corporate databases.

 

Availability:

These historical documents are often available through library archives, such as the HathiTrust Digital Library and the Internet Archive.

    

2. Many 'Next Warren Buffetts' Have Failed to Measure Up. Hur, Krystal.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 20 Mar 2026: B5.